[www.niftyviews.com:23649] Fwd: USDJPY: What's Next Ahead Of Fed ?

[Asis Ghosh]

 Forwarded Message 
Subject:USDJPY: What's Next Ahead Of Fed ?
Date:   Sat, 12 Dec 2015 12:47:05 +0530
From:   Asis Ghosh 
Reply-To:   asis...@gmail.com



*Junk bond and Oil worries fading Fed hike probability in Dec ?? *

*Looking at the chart, *USDJPY (CMP: 120.90) has strong support around 
120-119 and consecutive closing below that may target 116-114 area in 
the near term.


*On the upside,* sustain above 121.50-122.50 area, it may target 124-126 
(123.65-125.80) in the short to medium term.


*Over all range* of USDJPY might be around 116-122-126 in 2016 (FY:17) 
and 122 may be an equilibrium rate for BOJ, keeping in mind Japan's 
overall domestic economy, inflation & export competitiveness and it will 
adjust its QQE accordingly with close co-ordination with Fed & ECB 
(balancing act).


For the last two days USDJPY and S fall significantly on junk bond 
and oil worries. As par reports, there were defaults in some junk bond 
redemption requests and many more may be in the lines.


Also, there is a market buzz that US congress may lift the 40 years old 
ban on export of its oil as a package of its spending and tax measures 
(but its not finalized as par DJ reports).


This will be good for USD & US trade balance, but may be more bad news 
for oil, though as par some report, demand for oil outstrips supply in 
the last few weeks after a long time.


Below $35-32, crude oil may fall further to $28-25-20 and if sustained 
there for mid to long term, many oil producing companies will force to 
shut down as their average cost of production may be somewhere between 
$25-20 and this may cause severe credit defaults in the financial system 
(oil bonds will become junk bonds !!).


*This scenario of junk & oil bonds, may remind Fed about the 2008 
sub-prime housing crisis & subsequent credit defaults. Thus Fed may also 
postpone Dec rate hike to delay it towards Feb-Apr'2016 for further 
assessments of the real situation.*


FFR is now indicating Dec Fed rate hike probability of around 72% from 
previous high of  78%.


On the other side, if Fed does not act this time, it will be a question 
of credibility on Fed and in future, market may not believe in Fed at 
all and it may also be interpreted as "lack of confidence" on the part 
of Fed on US/Global economy. USD will be again sold off heavily and 
that's what Fed may exactly wants at this moments as too much strong USD 
will become a headwind for US economy also.


This may be really a catch-22 situation this time for Fed !!

*Analytical Charts:*














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Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)



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Capital)533540TREE HOUSE EDUCATION & ACCESSORIES LTD.Geeta BhatiaYes
03/12/2015SALEMarket2475.8435650008.438.4329(2)05 Dec 2015533540TREE
HOUSE EDUCATION & ACCESSORIES LTD.Rajesh Bhatia & Geeta BhatiaYes03/12/2015
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LTD.Capital First LtdNo16/11/2015 - 30/11/2015 Pledge10.5429(2)01 Dec
2015533540TREE HOUSE EDUCATION & ACCESSORIES LTD.Capital First LtdNo21/09/2015
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15.3329(2)07 Oct 2013

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administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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iv. give price target;
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