[www.niftyviews.com:23986] The Exodus Of Gods-FIIs Begin To Desert Kotak Bank, HDFC Bk, YesBank and IndusInd Bank

2016-02-25 Thread Rajiv Handa 
KOTAK BANK-FINALLY SELLING EMERGES. HDFC BANK, YES BANK AND INDUSIND BANK
WILL JOIN THE EXODUS.

-- 
Kindly email stock reports at 

STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com 

For sharing knowledge

-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.

http://www.niftyviews.com/ 


Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The 
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
iv. give price target;
--- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

[www.niftyviews.com:23987] Fwd: Global & Indian Market Update : Can G-20 Meet Help A Bit ?

2016-02-25 Thread Asis Ghosh 




 Forwarded Message 
Subject:Global & Indian Market Update : Can G-20 Meet Help A Bit ?
Date:   Fri, 26 Feb 2016 09:14:42 +0530
From:   Asis Ghosh 
Reply-To:   asis...@gmail.com



*Trading Idea: NSE NF (Mar)*

SGX NF: 7080 (CMP)

NSE-NF: 7001 (LIP-ADJ)

Either sell below 7115 or on rise around 7150;

TGT: 7050-7025*-6960*-6925-6900-6860 (1-5 days)

TSL> 7170-7195

Note: Consecutive closing above 7195 zone, NF may further rally towards 
7225-7295 & 7315-7375 area in the near term (alternative bullish case 
scenario from the present trading level).


In the near term, NF has to sustain over 7375-7410 zone for further 
rally up to 7580-7655 zone. On the downside, consecutive closing below 
6860, NF may further fall towards 6775-6565 & 6480-6335 zone in the days 
ahead, depending upon the budget news flow.


Yesterday's railway budget may be indicating that Govt may present a 
rural economy oriented budget on Monday aiming at the forthcoming state 
elections. With little hope of any "dream budget" this time, all eyes 
will be on fiscal deficit road map, Govt's capex & borrowings to 
stimulate our economy and tax/LTCG treatment. Going by the current 
global & local/domestic market turmoil, Govt may not choose to tinker 
with LTCG this time as this may cause more market meltdown at our end. 
Unless and until, global sentiment improves and there are some visible 
structural improvement, nothing will work for our market. Also, our 
market may likely to see some actual earnings improvement and policy 
reform (GST etc) and an road map for the PSBS recapitalization amid the 
ongoing NPA mess.


Yesterday's announcement in the SDR mechanism by the RBI may help some 
PSBS in the short term, but huge capital and interest rate policy reform 
may be required for a long term solution. India's real rate of interest 
is too high & its an expensive economy & cost of doing business is also 
high (as incremental benefit of lower oil prices was not transmitted to 
the consumers/economy and there are various high regulatory charges). 
Also, political landscape is fast changing and people are loosing faith 
in NAMO/Modinomics amid various socio political issues. Recent, Jat 
vandalism in Haryana may caused significant loss of confidence among 
investors of doing business in India.


After yesterday's late oil rally ($0.82~2.5%) amid speculation of yet 
another production cut meeting between OPEC & Non-OPEC members in March 
as told by Russian Oil minister, SPF reversed the direction and now 
trading around 1950.


*Technically, SPF has to now sustain over 1950-1960 zone for any 
strength and in that scenario, it may rally up to 1975-2000 & 2035-2075 
and 2095-2110 zone. On the flip side, unable to sustain over 1960 area, 
it may again fall towards 1910-1867 & 1824-1804 zone in the near term.*


*For Crude (CMP: $33), formidable technical hurdle is 34-35.50 zone and 
only consecutive closing above that it may further rally up to 38-41. On 
the flip side, sustain below 30.40, it may again fall towards 26-25 zone 
in the near term.*


Globally all eyes will be on the G-20 meet currently going on in China 
and comments by various Central bankers/FM(s). There are some market 
talk that, after this summit, China may announce significant Yuan 
devaluation road map as a part of co-ordinated policy action by the 
major global CB(s).


Apart from China, Oil, probable EU/US recession, there will be also 
Brexit issues and all this may be an ideal landscape for the Fed to take 
an wait & watch stance in 2016, with out any rate hike and probability 
of an US NIRP will also be there.


Analytical Charts:










--
Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified



--
Kindly email stock reports at 

STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com 


For sharing knowledge

-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.

http://www.niftyviews.com/ 



Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of 
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion 
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum 
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or 
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
--- 
You received this message

[www.niftyviews.com:23988] Banks-The Big Short. Investors Will Lose Half their Capital on Bank and HFC stocks

2016-02-25 Thread Rajiv Handa 
Banks Remain The Big Short-10Y GSec at 8.05
No Way Can Deposit Rates Get Lowered. All Blue Channel supremos backing
financials will Eat Crow, when no rollovers happen at lower rates. Deposit
rates will have to be raised, not reduced. This will impair Rainbow, Amrut
and Uday programmes of GOI when roughly Rs 41 Tn of State Government Bonds
Hit The Market. Sell All Financials...

The bond market has oddly remained under significant stress in FY2016
despite muted economic growth, benign inflation dynamics, and more
important, an accommodative monetary policy. The old 10-year G-Sec (7.72%
2025) yield is ~25 bps higher than the levels seen in March 2015, despite
75 bps rate cut in FY2016. The old and new 10-year benchmark yields are now
trading ~125 bps and ~105 bps higher than the repo rate respectively—as
against the usual spread of ~50-60 bps. This clearly reflects a structural
shift in the appetite for sovereign bonds and has disturbed the requisite
monetary policy transmission (see Exhibit 1).

Structural changes in SLR-HTM norms contributing to yield hardening

We reckon that even as the change in SLR norms is a positive institutional
and financial reform, the immediate repercussion has been negative for
bonds. On a structural basis, sentiments have turned sour given (1) SLR
requirements are progressively being reduced, (2) Hold-To-Maturity (HTM)
book has been statutorily aligned with the SLR requirement, and (3) banks’
MTM-related risk appetite in the Available-For-Sale (AFS) book is also
tempered on fading expectations of a further rate cut, where banks are now
reducing their duration on bonds.
Demand-supply mismatch likely to weigh on bond outlook

The near-term risks to G-Sec outlook could be a larger-than-expected fiscal
deficit, which will further push up the borrowing costs both on account of
credibility and worsening the demandsupply mismatch in the bond market (see
Exhibit 2). We estimate that with FY2017 GFD/GDP of 3.5%, the gross G-Sec
borrowing could amount to ~`6.3 tn, ~10% higher than FY2016, although net
borrowing will be marginally higher. The net SDL borrowing are expected to
increase substantially by ~13%, partly on the back of higher interest
payment on special SDLs, converted from bank loans of discoms under the
UDAY program. Overall material increase in total bond supply would imply a
demand gap of ~`600 bn. Further shift in institutional investors’
proclivity towards high-yielding special SDLs could worsen this gap. This
may result in further widening of SDL spreads—recent higher SDL auction
cut-offs being precursor to the likely eventuality of aggravating
pressures.

OMOs remain the most effective savior for bonds

OMOs continue to be the primary source of respite for bonds. To the extent
that BoP surplus is muted and domestic liquidity remains tight, RBI will be
prompted to create base money via OMOs, which could alleviate G-Sec
imbalances. Other factors that may help yields at the margin in the coming
months include (1) a positive fiscal surprise (sticking to GFD/GDP of
3.5%), to the extent that some fiscal relaxation is priced in, (2) 25-50
bps rate cut in CY2016 amid favorable growth-inflation dynamics and
monetary accommodation in the rest of EM Asia, and (3) net increase in
global liquidity, helped by ECB and BoJ’s additional QEs in early CY2016,
which should chase attractive carry that India offers (especially when UST
10-year yield has now plummeted to ~1.73%). This, however, will be subject
to stability in global risk sentiments

-- 
Kindly email stock reports at 

STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com 

For sharing knowledge

-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.

http://www.niftyviews.com/ 


Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The 
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
iv. give price target;
--- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.