[www.niftyviews.com:24033] Fwd: Bank Nifty (Mar): Has To Sustain Over 15650-800 Zone For Further Strength

[Asis Ghosh]

 Forwarded Message 
Subject: 	Bank Nifty (Mar): Has To Sustain Over 15650-800 Zone For 
Further Strength

Date:   Tue, 8 Mar 2016 09:08:44 +0530
From:   Asis Ghosh 
Reply-To:   asis...@gmail.com



BNF need to stay above 15650-800 zone for further rally up to 
16055-16580-17150;

Otherwise, it will face selling pressure and sustain below 15600-460 area,
It may again fall towards 15215-14750-13800

Going by the price action, expected rate cut by RBI (0.25-0.50%)
may be already discounted to a great extent

In the near term, too little recapitalization issue may drag the banks
despite talk of mergers of PSBS ("Gyan Sangam") and recent RBI measures 
of T1 capital



*Trading Levels: BNF-Mar*

LTP: 15392

SL=+/-  25 POINTS   FROMSLR 



















For Intraday Swing  Trader  







T1  T2  T3  T4  T5  SLR
Strong > 	15650 		15750-800* 	15865-900 	15975-055* 	16125-235 
16300-350 	<15600


Weak < 	15600 		15500-460* 	15435-300 	15250-215* 	15150-125 
15030-810 	>15650



FOR ConservativePositional  Trader  

T1  T2  T3  T4  T5  SLR
Strong > 15650   15800*  15900   16055*  16235   16350-580   
<15600

Weak <   15600   15460*  15300   15215*  15125   14810-750   
>15650




Analytical Charts:















--
Thanks & Regards,

Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified



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[www.niftyviews.com:24028] Fwd: India's 2016 Budget And The Fiscal Math (Myth) Behind 3.5% Fiscal Deficit Projection

[Asis Ghosh]

 Forwarded Message 
Subject: 	India's 2016 Budget And The Fiscal Math (Myth) Behind 3.5% 
Fiscal Deficit Projection

Date:   Mon, 7 Mar 2016 17:56:37 +0530
From:   Asis Ghosh 
Reply-To:   asis...@gmail.com



*The "most important" fiscal deficit is projected as 3.5% of nominal GDP;*
**
*But in real terms, it may be 3.9-4.6% *

In 2016 budget, apart from the projected fiscal deficit figure, there 
are absolutely nothing new, which may be unknown to our market.



*Projected Fiscal Math of the Govt for FY:17 (approx in Rs. cr) *

Total receipts: **

Divestment in PSUS:   36000.00

Divestment in SUTTI: 20500.00
---
Total divestment target: 56500.00  (up by 123% against FY-16 figure 
of Rs. 25312 helped by LICI)


Tel/Spectrum auction:   99000.00  ( up by 125% against FY:15-16 
average figure of Rs.44000)


Gross tax revenue:1221522.00 (up by 11.7% against FY-16 RE)

Capital receipts:601038.00 (up by 3.8% against FY-16 RE)
--
Total receipts:   1978060.00   (up by around 10.8%  
against FY-16 RE of Rs.1785391)


Revenue deficit:354015.00 ( against FY-16 RE of 
Rs.341589 and FY-15 actual Rs.365519)


Fiscal deficit:533904.00 (against FY-16 RE of 
Rs.535090 and FY-15 actual Rs.510725)


Absolute nominal GDP: 15065010.00 (assuming 11% growth over FY-16 number 
against 8.6% RE)


FD/Nominal GDP:  3.5% (Approx projected for FY-17 against FY-16 
RE of 3.9%)


*Add: 7-PC impact: *  102000.00 (For FY-17 Rs.73650 + Arrears 
Rs.18412 + OROP Rs.1)


*Less: Govt BE* :(-)4.00 ( Govt allocated Rs.225000 cr 
against FY-16 RE of Rs.185000 cr)

---
*Net 7-PC/OROP*:   62000.00  ( under allocated for FY-17 7-PC/OROP 
impact excluding railways)


*Pending FF subsidy*:  10.00 (approx amount of pending food & 
fertilizer subsidy bill)

 ---
*Approx unaccounted*:162000.00 ( pending expenses for cash accounting 
system instead of accrual)

*
*
*Actual total FD*:695904.00 (reported fiscal deficit figure of 
Rs.533904 + Rs.162000 approx)


*Actual FD/GDP*:  4.6% ( after accounting the full 7-PC impact for 
FY-17 & FF subsidy burden)
3.9% (if only 7-PC impact is accounted 
properly for FY-17)



As par various reports, total states & central gross/consolidated fiscal 
deficit may be above 8% of the gross GDP for India.


For China, its may be around 2.4% for 2015 (which they are planning to 
increase to 3.5% over the years to stimulate its economy).


Now, from the above math, its clear that some of the revenue and 
expenditure projections are made on the higher and lower side:


*1. Divestment in PSUS/SUTTI: *

Govt projected a 123% hike from the actual figure of Rs.25312 cr to 
Rs.56500 cr. In the last year, Govt had assumed Rs.69500 cr through 
disinvestment proceeds, but so far may have collected only Rs 25312 cr 
(with the last minute NTPC OFS of Rs.5000 cr). But in this regard, LICI 
came to the rescue of the Govt time to time in a major way and 
effectively, its can't be called a disinvestment, because in true sense, 
LICI money is moving from one arm of the Govt to another (i.e. transfer 
of assets).


Given the present condition of the market, the projected disinvestment 
figure is looking too ambitious and if the Govt resorts to distress 
selling, it may lead to more price erosion in the market for the PSUS 
(say Coal India, ONGC etc) and even for the SUTTIS ( like ITC, Axis Bk, 
L etc). Govt should have thought of massive disinvestment, when market 
was around 8500-9000 and sentiment was good and not in the current state 
of  "gloom & doom" scenarios, where 7000 may be the new normal of the 
market in the foreseeable future.


Another point that, some of the analysts are pointing out is the 
accounting treatment of disinvestment proceeds (asset sales). As par IMF 
rules, any kind of assets sales by a Govt needs to be treated as a 
"financing item" rather than "revenue receipt" as the Indian Govt is 
doing now to come up with a lower fiscal deficit figure. Its like a 
company selling its assets/stakes and accounting the total proceeds into 
its revenue/PL, rather than considering only the capital gain/loss 
portion. Any way, any kind of receipt is a "revenue receipt", whatever 
be its origin and that's the way the Indian Govt is accounting it for 
the years.


*2. Ambitious telecom spectrum auction projection:*

GOI projected around Rs.99000 cr for FY-17 on this account against the 
actual figure of Rs.57384 cr for FY-16 and Rs.30616 cr for FY-15 (total 
collected for around Rs.88000 cr with an average of Rs.44000 cr in 
CY:2015-16).


Thus GOI projected an increase of around 74% from the actual FY-16 
figure and a whooping 125% from the average figure of the last two 
years, which may be much more on the higher side,