-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Hindalco: Dead Cat Bounce Is Over For Metals ?
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2016 09:10:36 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Hindalco has to stay over 86-96 for any further strength;*
*Otherwise it will be weak and below 83-77 may fall towards 55-40 area*
Last two month's Chinese trade data may be an indication of more pain
in the metals, despite Chinese Lunar New Year holiday factor
On the ground, there is no visible improvements of demands in steel/metals
despite hopes of more Chinese stimulus
With TTM EPS at 1.99, Hindalco may be quoting at an exorbitant PE of 40;
whereas 15-20 may be more reasonable PE in the current situation
despite protection by the Govt
*Trading Idea:*
LTP: 83
Either sell below 83 or on rise around 86-90;
TGT: 77-68-55*-40 (1-3M)
TSL> 93-96
Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 96 for any reason, Hindalco may
further rally up to 112*-120-130-142 in the mid to long term
(alternative bullish case scenario).
*As par BG metrics & current market scenario:*
(based on standalone TTM & FWD EPS)
Current median valuation of Hindalco may be around: 58 (FY:15/TTM)
Projected fair valuation might be around: 46-50-55 (FY:16-18/FWD)
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
HINDALCO 1.99 180.41 20 59.75 54.35 57.05 89.69 74.21
HINDALCO 1.72 184.05 15 48.10 43.76 45.93 89.69 74.21
HINDALCO 1.98 187.75 15 51.61 46.95 49.28 89.69 74.21
HINDALCO 2.4 191.5 15 56.82 51.69 54.26 89.69 74.21
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OZX99bMwSQw/Vt-ZaxCg87I/AAAAAAAAGZI/_-E_DNJjFEY/s1600/Hindalco-08-03-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0EbmYyMOo3A/Vt-ZdHHCHzI/AAAAAAAAGZM/8DEQ6gFAeLg/s1600/Hindalco-Fibb-08-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DBz4HLqkuew/Vt-ZfVYGN1I/AAAAAAAAGZQ/F-5uhra1RgM/s1600/Hindalco-WK-08-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4eemZzZgBOI/Vt-Zj7SCPHI/AAAAAAAAGZU/GM3_8IZ9BoQ/s1600/Hindalco-TL-08-03-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oNLhkkRh9p8/Vt-ZmDQLDdI/AAAAAAAAGZY/SKmdZjCvb3U/s1600/Hindalco-Pattern-08-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3cmV0EtPzWY/Vt-ZoEccLRI/AAAAAAAAGZc/bGMs8ddXhpI/s1600/Hindalco-TL-LT-08-03-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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