-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Market Mantra : Nifty Fut (Dec)
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2015 09:07:50 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*NF need to trade above at least 7900-7925 for any Pre-Santa Rally*
*GST debate & "Dog" (intolerance) controversy can still rock the
Parliament this week *
SGX NF: 7855 (CMP)
NSE-NF: 7829 (LTP)
As par morning SGX indication NSE-NF may open gap up around 7855-7885 zone.
*Technically NF need to sustain above 7900-7925 for targets of
7985-8015-8055 in the near term.*
*
*
*On the downside, sustain below 7850, NF may find some support around
7805-7785 area, below that 7725-7680 may be the immediate target.*
Friday's CCEA report about GST may strengthen the Cong's points/demands
about overall cap of 18% rate. But there are also many other points and
the proposal has to be passed through the empowered committee of
LS/state finance ministers. The time allotted for debate on GST in RS is
only four hours and there is also another crucial Real Estate Bill.
Cong also want one single rate on pan-India basis rather than multiple
rates & State GSTS. So, there may be further debates in GST and also
"Dog" remark controversy will be there in the LS. Thus we may see an
excited debate-full Parliament this week and basically Cong will not
let pass the GST so easily until the last moment of current Parliament
session. They will try to extract all the political mileage as possible
for the sake of this GST passage and will not let NAMO (BJP) to get the
full credit for it under any circumstances.
Incidentally, when UPA was in power and tried to pass this same GST,
then BJP also blocked the Parliament & its passage. We are truly a
victim of our shabby political system !!
Globally, although Draghi was supposed to come with a "Bazooka", he came
with a "Water Pistol"; but don't "fade" the man ("Mario whatever
required Draghi") !!
After last Friday's block buster NFP data in US, FFR is now projecting
above 78% of Fed lift- off on Fed day (Dec-16). Now all the attention is
shifted towards future Fed plan (path) of Fed Fund Rate. Will it be only
one & off (0.25-0.50%) or rapid @0.25% in every alternate Fed meet ?
Apart from poor inflation, some geo-political/economic risk, Fed may
also look into tepid MFG data in recent ISM surveys, coupled with very
strong dollar and together with that, the Dec year end factor may also
prevent it for immediate hike in Dec. But one thing is clear that, if
Fed failed to deliver this time (by not hiking), it will have to "pay
hell in dollars" (i.e. dollar will be sold heavily).
From the overall stance of ECB, it appears that they will prefer for
EUR/USD range of 1.15-1.05 for the time being (before Fed) to balance
everything. If Draghi came with a "Bazooka" (more QE), EUR may be
pushed towards parity (1.00) with USD immediately and there after if Fed
really act this time, EUR may drift further towards 0.90-0.85, making
the USD more strong. So the whole affair may be a co-ordinated central
banks action (Fed/ECB) to prevent any dis-orderly financial market in
the event of any real Fed action (because of policy divergence between
Fed & ECB).
As all the above possibilities are being discounted by the market, it
may be in a range even after Fed day with some temporary whipsaw movements.
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wrQcspn_s8w/VmT76j5x2II/AAAAAAAAFKg/Syk2hwajvQY/s1600/SGX-NF-07-12-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tkEhaP2DGC8/VmT7-QahIuI/AAAAAAAAFKo/WP_ydqBfdn8/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-07-12-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
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