-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Gold: Ahead Of BOJ & FED, What's The Chart Is Saying ?
Date: Mon, 14 Mar 2016 07:25:21 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Gold need to sustain above 1285-1295-1310 for further rally up to
1345-1392-1435; otherwise it will come down and sustain below 1250-1235
zone, it may fall up to 1190-1135-1039 zone again.*
*Trading Idea: Gold*
CMP: 1250
Either sell below 1250 or on rise around 1285-1300;
TGT1: 1225-1190*-1163-1135 (1M)
TGT2: 1095-1075-1050-1039* (3M)
TSL> 1310
Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 1310 for any reason, Gold may
further rally up to 1345-1360-1392 & 1435 in the near to long term
(alternative bullish case scenario from the current trading level).
March may be called the month of the central bankers and in the coming
week, apart from BOJ & FED, there will be SNB and BOE:
*BOJ*: Expected to maintain the statusco as it just lowered the rate to
negative zone in Jan'16 to (-) 0.01%. BOJ is under immense pressure
domestically for this sudden NIRP and may revise the the cut off CA
balance above $90 bln and no fresh QQE until July'16.
*FED*: Expected to be on "Hold" with a "slightly hawkish" script and
keep probability of another rate hike @0.25% in July & Dec'16. FFR is
now indicating 50% & 70% probability of a hike in July and Dec'16 on the
back of recovery in stock market ( S&P rallied by around 12% from the
recent bottom), decline in $ index (USD), blockbuster job data (although
quality of jobs may be debatable), rise in oil prices (which may
stimulate overall inflation towards 2%). But as ECB already eased in an
unexpected and extraordinary manner, FED may keep its "wait & watch"
policy with a "hawkish" stance in order to justify its previous hike.
Crude Oil is expected to be in the $40-30 zone in the near term as there
will be frequent talk of production cuts, but near $40, more supplies
(specially US shale) can come to the market also. Thus there will be no
real improvement in demand-supply dynamics and all round production
cuts, even by 5% may be a dream and stable Oil around $35 is a less
cause of concern for the equity market as it may de-link itself with the
present co-relationship.
Thus the present divergent QQE/monetary policy between FED and other
major central bankers (ECB/BOJ/PBOC) may keep the differential between
the cross currencies intact and USD is expected to be remain in strength
wrt to EUR & JPY. This will make the Gold relatively weak in USD terms
in the near term.
But, in this era of competitive currency devaluation and negative
yields, thanks to QQE/ZIRP/NIRP etc, appeal of Gold will be there as a
physical asset for at least positive yield/return in the mid to long term.
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lx1RG5kdm3w/VuYWUig2fhI/AAAAAAAAGdg/WrU2QdKSL3o2839MJ0VYzPkFLtC_d-Y5w/s1600/Gold-11-03-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Plr817XVxok/VuYWXGA-DOI/AAAAAAAAGdk/rQ1L7NQKFcQSzR5BecmeIH2T47a6gnhwQ/s1600/Gold-Fibb-13-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BtpX5L_3uAQ/VuYWZTkLTKI/AAAAAAAAGdo/xaVpzfHAIbY67Cw1N8nfuW-CAlVP5Iebg/s1600/Gold-WK-13-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8gdZFYNI8Xg/VuYWa38I9TI/AAAAAAAAGds/nDK6C4Ku9FA1spN6P_ad6DfOLbx3jNixg/s1600/Gold-TL-11-03-3016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ReMlI6-yufk/VuYWdBLZbRI/AAAAAAAAGdw/3LnyUPLSfFk4VHZ17aOzEoCMZvbmq0aMg/s1600/Gold-Pattern-11-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-f_y9EEDVwGo/VuYWfEn6MqI/AAAAAAAAGd0/jNAw3PVK1mgoYII7Ngka0LMBioVwBKlFg/s1600/Gold-EW-11-03-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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