-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut (Mar): Need To Sustain Abv 7650-7710 Zone For
Further Rally
Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2016 09:12:30 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
Technically, NF need to sustain over 7650-7710 zone for further rally up
to 7750-7800-7930-8005 zone. Otherwise, selling pressure may come and
sustain below 7590-7540, it may fall towards 7485-7400-7290 zone again.
*Trading Idea: NF-MAR*
SGX-NF: 7605
Either sell below 7625 or on rise around 7650-7680-7710;
TGT: 7540-7485-7400*-7290 (1-5 days)
TSL> 7750
*Note*: Consecutive closing(3 days) above 7750 zone for any reason, NF
may further rally up to 7800*-7930-8005*-8055 in the near term
(alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level).
As par early morning SGX indication NSE-NF may open gap up around
7620-7600 area after FED indicated that it may hike only twice instead
of four as par previous dot plot. Although, it was widely expected, the
overall tone of Yellen was somewhat more dovish than market expectation
as FED lowered US economic projection (projected 2016 US GDP from 2.6%
to 2.2% and inflation from 1.6% to 1.2% which may be increased above 2%
by 2018).
Overall FED is worried about US wage & global growth
(China/Canada/Mexico/EU). As par Yellen's own admission in the Q&A,
FED's rate projections (dot-plots) are merely an indication/probability
and not a promise for action.
Yellen is also worried about US exports, business investments, drilling
activity and not overly worried about effect of higher oil prices on
inflation.
Now, all the above FED stands are already discounted by the market
including the projected two hikes in 2016 instead of four. Frankly
speaking, no one expected FED to hike four times in 2016 and majority of
the market participants are expecting either a June hike (before US
election) or in Dec'16 (after US election), if FED sticks to its own
script and there is no major market turmoil.
Still, FED is talking about two more hikes in 2016, while no other major
central bank is talking about it and BOJ/ECB/PBOC may actually lower the
rate (QQE/NIRP/ZIRP).
Thus the talk of policy divergence between FED and other G-10 universe
may make the USD stronger in the days ahead and old inverse correlation
of strong USD & weak EQ (risk assets) may return instead of flying to
the safety of Yen.
After all, even after dovish FED, SPF rallied by only around 1% and now
trading around 2020. It need to sustain above 2030-2040 for further
strength, otherwise it will come down.
For our market, RBI may be more dovish after FED stance and may cut
0.25-0.50% either before Holi or on 5-th Apr. But going by the price
action, a rate cut of 0.50% may be largely discounted by the market
already.
Looking ahead, actual rate cut transmissions by the banks, Q4 results
and ability of the Govt to carry forward vital economic reform in an
effective way will be the keys. Twin balance sheet issues (PSBS and some
of the highly indebted corporate groups) and falling popularity of NAMO
may be some of the concerns for our market in the days ahead.
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vDTpEW6RYFM/Vuol0cOI8-I/AAAAAAAAGhA/lq12wFoak7YZUxLGUhwqj1TxQ6RNQslsQ/s1600/SGX-NF-17-03-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QcNFfWnaJoQ/Vuol17rryPI/AAAAAAAAGhE/P2-XW5m6fbYOH5WeeM3eftFc5qKKeKpIA/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-17-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Lwfkt7ybmQ0/Vuol4xhfTSI/AAAAAAAAGhI/AxykktWeTy4ODoS7w_nD1tiKYACp18P3Q/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-17-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KydGRodj1xQ/Vuol7K_npdI/AAAAAAAAGhM/uM5QqsRwqBQmr3jPvysxLaOki51DEH8MA/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-17-03-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TRGTaMKX9EE/Vuol9P8QOQI/AAAAAAAAGhQ/bGnqWzBnK4oWyK5gZu3lreAIDlMBvZ6Ww/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-17-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nPiAvCKSG2w/Vuol_K7U_7I/AAAAAAAAGhU/PQcKF81E4ScmIgMsAUS3E_gQnyK-jQ3ZA/s1600/SGX-NF-EW-17-03-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
