-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: TVS Motors: At PE Of Around 40, May Be Running Much Ahead Of
Fundamentals
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2016 09:25:22 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
Technically, TVS has to sustain over 325-335 zone for further rally up
to 350-365; otherwise, selling pressure may intensify and below 322-309
may again fall towards 280-255 zone in the near term.
Trading Idea: TVS Motors
CMP: 317
Either sell below 322-325 or on rise around 335-345;
TGT: 309-295*-280-267-255*-240 (1-3M)
TSL> 355
Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 350 zone for any reason, TVS
may further rally up to 365-375-386-402 & 422-450 in the near to long
term (alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level).
For TVS, recent deal with SNAPDEAL to sell its bikes/scooters on its
online platform and launching of new models along with hopes of revival
in rural spending (favourable budget) & OROP disbursements may be some
of the triggers. TVS may also launch an entry level BMW-TVS bike
(G-310R) for an expected price tag of around Rs.2 laks.
But there may be some doubt about the success of SNAPDEAL platform as
majority of the 2-W customers will prefer to try a bike/scooter off line
(physically) at the dealer space and then go for a buying decision.
In any way, the recent surge in price may have discounted the above sets
of good news for the scrip and 325-335-345 may be a good supply zone for
the scrip.
Valuation as par BG metrics & current market scenario:
Actual TTM EPS: 8.53
Projected FWD EPS: 8.80-9.70-11.75 (FY:16-18)
Average ideal PE:20-25
Current median valuation may be around: 245 (FY:15)
Projected fair valuations might be around: 250-260-290 (FY:16-18)
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High
Median 200-DEMA 10-DEMA
TVSMOTOR 8.53 34.63 25 238.68 249.40 244.04
267.15 291.67
TVSMOTOR 8.8 40.05 25 242.43 253.31 247.87
267.15 291.67
TVSMOTOR 9.7 46.25 25 254.53 265.95 260.24
267.15 291.67
TVSMOTOR 11.75 55.85 25 280.13 292.71 286.42
267.15 291.67
Analytical Charts:
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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