I was reminded recently of the power of compounding. At linear rates, if we
have 100 units of oil and use it one unit per year, we can last 100 years.
But if our usage grows five percent per year, we will run out in year 37.
Every industrialized economy is built on the hope of perpetual growth.
While the proportion changes as we gain efficiency, energy use tracks that
growth. Hence, the compounding of growth is always shortening our horizon
even as efficiency and new discoveries lengthen it.
The problem, however, isn't running out. It is our collective reactions as
we see the horizon get close. The recent postings on this list are
describing a "great game" that is based on the powerful's reactions to a
close horizon--a reaction based not simply on how to protect the future, but
on how to protect the future and their own power in that future.
Jim
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 04:58:44 +0200
From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: RE: [Biofuel] Mapping The Oil Motive
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Message-ID:
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed
Tom,
You are in the best case right, but I think that the crises is less
than one generation (20 years) away. The statement you make
have no support in known facts, especially since the usage growth
rate seems to be grossly underestimated. The reserves from the
Oil companies has already been proven to be over estimated,
with almost a third for Shell only.
Hakan
At 09:59 PM 3/29/2005, you wrote:
Hi All,
I am an environmental scientist by education and my latest research is on
sustainable development. As near as I can tell there is no shortage of oil.
There may be shortages of production, shortages of distribution but for at
least another generation there will be no shortage of oil due to lack of
material. Here is the key reasoning. We still have not tapped all the
available reserves on land. All the Gulf war stuff is about underdeveloped
Iraqi oil and the as yet untouched and shallow (read highly profitable) oil
in the Azerbijan region. Oil is produced under oceans. Although we have
found most of the terrestrial based oil, it represents only 1/8 the planets
surface area. That leaves 7/8 of the planet where we have hardly begun the
search for new sources. A recent National Geographic article displayed new
technology that was enabling drilling off the continental shelf in water
1500 feet deep. Now oil from that depth won't be cheap but it still will be
available. With prices at $57/ barrel it becomes economically feasable to
look even deeper.
The point and the problem is that there will be no lack of oil. The problem
will be from the climate change that is already here and will only worsen
as
we convert fossilized carbon from solid and liquid from into gaseous carbon
dioxide. I recently rewrote a global warming headline, " Hemingway turns in
his grave as the Snows of Kilamanjaro dissappear from the Earth forever.
That's the problem folks.
Sincerely,
Tom Irwin
James Dontje
Sustainability and Environmental Studies
Berea College
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