Far to much credit has been given to the recent media induced panic over an
article suggesting the world was now at �Peak Oil� production. Peak Oil is
defined as �that point at which maximum world petroleum production has been
reached�. King Hubbert accurately predicted in 1956 that US oil production
would peak in 1970, which it did. However, his model is generally considered to
have failed since, as his predicted bell shaped decline has been more of a
modest sloping curve (including a second peak in 1985). Bear in mind that
despite our reaching peak oil 36 years ago, the USA is still the number three
oil producer in the world. Iran at #4 produces less than half of what the US
produces.
Most energy experts agree that World peak oil will not occur for another
25-30 years (see Wood, Long and Morehouse 2004). Usually such predictions are
extended forward as time progresses. Even after world production peaks, there
will still be a tremendous volume of oil lasting well into the next century as
new energy sources pick up the slack.
US energy consumption stands at 22.5% coal, 23% natural gas and 40% petroleum
(85+% fossil fuels), 8.3% nuclear, 2.7% hydroelectric, 2.8% wood + waste +
alcohol, .3% geothermal and .2% solar + wind (Energy Information Agency).
Again, most energy experts recognize that 20 years from now the percentage of
fossil fuel use in the US is not likely to change. The US has created it�s
own potential crisis by blocking access to its own resources (see Ben Lieberman
2006).
I personally am for using all available sources of energy, but we need to be
realistic. Wind energy is pretty cool, but modern windmills cost more to
construct than the present time value of money generated from the energy they
will produce. The only thing making them economic is tax credits. Most biofuels
are similarly break-even propositions at best when one considers the cost of
planting, maintaining, harvesting and conversion. Brazil is often pointed to as
an exemplary example of biofuel production, but look at the ecological cost
they are expending to create more farmland.
Some of the most advanced solar collectors available today, will provide
enough energy to power a modest US home, but will cover the entire yard of that
home. These very collectors are presently in operation on space station Freedom
sitting outside of Earth�s atmosphere. One of the big advances in solar
technology is expected to come from breakthroughs in nano-technology (someone
else discussed this very cool concept). But, this remains many years away from
any large scale utility and may one day grow to represent a few percentage
points of our energy consumption. Passive geothermal has broad application for
home and particularly new public construction application, both for heating and
cooling, but will never be more than a fractional portion of the bigger energy
equation. To date, hydrogen fuel cells, like electric cars, are primarily just
redistributions of fossil fuels.
The answer to solving the energy equation seems to elude politicians from
both sides of the aisle, who appear to be either completely ignorant or
blatantly disingenuous regarding energy issues. The important first step is to
recognize the above resources and potential resources, and find cleaner ways to
produce and consume fossil fuels (combined with sequestration of CO2), maximize
efficiency (particularly with regard to automobiles (smaller, lighter =
carbon-fiber)), get serious about conservation on an individual basis, reduce
population growth and stop all the political posturing.
Above all, don�t panic! As Bill Mixon pointed out, there is easily enough
coal to last us another 300 years (we just need to develop cleaner ways to
consume it). We will undoubtedly have to build more nuclear reactors (remember
France generates 70% of it�s electricity from nuclear reactors). Eventually,
the world will tap into the vast reserves of gas hydrates on the world�s
continental shelves. Furthermore, many physicists believe that it is only a
matter of time (25-50 years or less) before the breakthroughs take place that
will produce realistic, safe and clean fusion energy. At that point in time we
will be on a course towards infinite, cheap and clean energy for as long as we
can manage to exist.
Bill Stephens
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