On 03/15/2011 12:52, Andy Gluesenkamp wrote:
I'll play this game:
"If cavers were a good vector, surely it would have been seen there
way before now."
I agree with Mark.
To which I respond:
I was on a cross-country flight and everyone around me was sniffling
and sneezing but I didn't get sick. Surely, I am immune to the common
cold virus.
No, you weren't immune to anything, just surrounded by a bunch of people
with seasonal allergies. Just because it looks like a cold symptom does
not mean it is a cold virus. Is that a stretch to believe no one on your
flight was sick? So is a human vector for WNS.
There is evidence that viable Gd spores can be transmitted on cave
packs. That's not to say that they necessarily result in sucessful
transmission in all cases. I think it is better to be cautious while
we learn more about WNS than to be forever slapping ourselfs on the
forehead and earning our place on the wall of shame alongside that
dodo who clubbed the last dodo.
Evidence of transmission? Where? Everything about WNS is hysteria-based.
All is couched in 'might' and 'maybe' (and perhaps a secret hope by a
few that cavers actually are a vector). After 4 years of study and
hand-wringing, and the feel-good placebo of decon, there is not a single
shred of _evidence_ that a human vector is involved. It all is
conjecture risen to pseudo-fact and panic through endless repetition of
an unproven assumption.
To believe that WNS was introduced from Europe by a caver who somehow
picked up spores (and enough of them to be a viable threat), who packed
his dirty gear for a caving trip in NY, and then managed against
infinitesimal odds to drop a few in a hospitable location that
blossomed into a colossal die-off significantly stretches credulity.
A much more likely scenario involves an infected or carrier bat(s) as a
stowaway on international shipping (or somewhat less likely, but still
way more believable than a human vector, an international passenger or
cargo flight). Howe Caverns is 32 miles from the Albany international
shipping port on the Hudson River. There are other ports up and down the
Hudson at greater distances, but several are within a bat's ability to
reach Howe Caverns.
I suspect WNS will run its course much like the West Nile Virus and
decon will eventually be known as ineffective and unnecessary, and
equivalent to slapping individual mosquitoes to control West Nile.
I would change my perspective if some hard facts show otherwise, but
given the lack thereof to date (after apparent intensive investigation)
it would seem that anything cavers do or don't do has any demonstrable
effect on encouraging or preventing the spread of WNS. That, of course,
doesn't prevent agencies from instituting access restrictions as a
knee-jerk reaction, even in the absence of any demonstrated need. The
federal closures in NM are an excellent example of this.
--
Stephen Fleming
___
*FEAR is the THIEF of DREAMS* -- Unknown
