RE: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread Jim Clark
Hi
 
I wonder if bridge-jumping suicides are an example of impulsive suicides?  What 
are the odds one is walking across the Bloor bridge perhaps to get to the fine 
Greek restaurants on the Danforth, and suddenly has an urge to kill one's self 
and jumps?  Isn't it much more likely that one goes there for the express 
purpose of committing suicide?  And given other options, one could go elsewhere 
to commit the act.
 
Presumably suicides can be separated into impulsive and reflective ... only 
former should show the effect referred to by Scott, although even there the 
impulse could occur in the presence of any number of means, making the 
prediction a challenge.
 
I hate to raise a controversial issue, but would this study have relevance to 
gun control arguments, suicide-prevention being one of the arguments for 
tighter control?
 
Take care
Jim
 
James M. Clark
Professor of Psychology
204-786-9757
204-774-4134 Fax
j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca 

>>> "Lilienfeld, Scott O"  15-Jul-10 1:23 AM >>>

 
Hi Chris - Alas, you may well be exactly right, but the finding runs counter to 
most received wisdom in the suicide field (again, see Joiner's recent book, 
"Myths about Suicide," which is quite unambiguous on this point), which 
proposes that erecting barriers on bridges results in a overall decrease in 
suicide, not merely a decrease at the targeted location (because most suicides 
are ostensibly committed following an activation of short-term impulses).  
There was also a good article on this issue in the New Yorker a few years ago 
in reference to the erecting of barriers on the Golden Gate Bridge.  As I 
understand it, most of that earlier research did not find evidence for 
"displacement effects" - offsetting increases in suicide at other bridges or 
other high-risk locations following the erection of suicide barriers.  
 
For what it's worth, I found Stephen Black's original message quite clear.  
 
Scott  
 
From: Christopher D. Green [chri...@yorku.ca] 
Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 6:13 PM
To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS)
Subject: Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study


 
It seemed obvious to me when they erected this expensive eyesore (to great 
public fanfare) that it would change nothing. People wanting to commit suicide 
would simply go somewhere else. Sadly, it seems I was exactly right. Sigh.

Chris
-- 

Christopher D. Green
Department of Psychology
York University
Toronto, ON M3J 1P3
Canada
 
416-736-2100 ex. 66164
chri...@yorku.ca 
http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ 
==



sbl...@ubishops.ca wrote: 

There's a grim but interesting study of suicide rates on the Bloor Viaduct in 
Toronto before and after the placement of a suicide prevention barrier. Lots of 
statistics to crunch. Full text of the article available at: 
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/341/jul06_1/c2884 As is characteristic of 
natural experiments, the results do not lead to any conclusion with confidence. 
Don't miss the thoughtful commentary contributed by Isaac Sakinofsky as a rapid 
response at http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/341/jul06_1/c2884#238506 ) Sinyor, 
M. and Levitt, A. (2010). Effect of a barrier at Bloor Street Viaduct on 
suicide rates in Toronto: natural experiment. BMJ 2010;341:c2884 Stephen 
 Stephen L. Black, Ph.D. Professor 
of Psychology, Emeritus Bishop's University e-mail: sblack at ubishops.ca 2600 
College St. Sherbrooke QC J1M 1Z7 Canada 
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Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread sblack
On 15 Jul 2010 at 15:59, Mike Palij wrote:

> 
> Since Stephen hasn't bothered to explain what his point(s)
> were, we're left to speculating and playing mindreaders.

I wasn't planning on replying to this, but an interesting 
hypothesis unexpectedly popped up. I've been away from my 
computer as much as I've been at it lately, and the messages 
have been piling up. I always think I have time for a short note 
on something of interest, but I forget that it may well generate a 
bunch of replies which need more time which I don't have (yes, 
even in retirement). 

My caution on the natural experiment was based on my 
assumption that the weakness of this quasi-experimental 
before-after design is well-known, and it's accepted as clearly 
inferior to a true randomized study. And I did refer to Sakinofsky 
as providing specific points of concern.

So why did Mike take a shot at me for lack of clarity? I think it 
may be because in an earlier post of his ("Can computers help 
education?" July 11, he uncritically mentioned the use of natural 
experiments. Perhaps he thought my later comment was 
intended to take a dig at him, and this was tit for tat.  I did not 
intend this,  as I have only just now discovered his earlier post 
mentioning natural experiments. 

Notwithstanding,  I have to say that I too have noticed that he 
often puts an unnecessary unpleasant edge to his posts 
directed at individuals rather than issues.  Maybe he could work 
on that. 

Stephen


Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.  
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus   
Bishop's University   
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
2600 College St.
Sherbrooke QC  J1M 1Z7
Canada
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Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread Christopher D. Green
Ken,

Writing in a mind-numbingly dull and dry style is every bit as much a 
rhetorical strategy as writing in an interesting one. Writing well 
doesn't prevent one from reasoning well too. Only those who have trouble 
distinguishing between the two would object to one doing both. Since 
none of us here have that problem, perhaps we should all strive to do 
both. :-)

Best,
Chris
-- 

Christopher D. Green
Department of Psychology
York University
Toronto, ON M3J 1P3
Canada

 

416-736-2100 ex. 66164
chri...@yorku.ca
http://www.yorku.ca/christo/

==



Ken Steele wrote:
> Lilienfeld, Scott O wrote:
>> Hi All ..out of town right now but will send along some info over the
>> weekend or early next week at the latest, In the meantime, I'd like to
>> voice a concern. I find the tone of some of your postings, Mike, to be
>> needlessly snarky and obnoxious.  What gives? Is there any reason why
>> you can't merely disagree with others without finding some gratuitous
>> way of putting them down?
>>
>> Apologies to listserv members for being grumpy about this, but the
>> older I get the more I tire of less than respectful discourse...Scott
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>
> Of course, I can not speak for Mike P but I will leap in with a 
> comment at this point.
>
> We all know the formula for writing an empirical research report. 
>  They can be pretty dusty and most of us try to sneak in at least one 
> interesting turn of phrase.  When we are freed of those strictures and 
> are writing commentaries (or blogs or ms. reviews or other such 
> pieces) then the temptation is to go for the literary.
>
> I was once asked to write a commentary and I passed on a preliminary 
> version to a mentor.  His single written comment was "you have 
> committed the sin of being literary."  I was stunned after all my work 
> on catchy phrases but after some thought realized that he was 
> correct.  I had been reaching for felicitous phrases to impress my 
> audience when I should have been concentrating on the logic of my 
> argument.
>
> The issue with TIPS is that we don't have crusty editors to chop away 
> adjectives, adverbs, and other sparklies which sound good to my ears 
> but may sound extreme to others.
>
> Ken
>
> PS - "felicitous phrases" ... "sparklies" (too literary; it's a 
> disease, my friends) ... "my friends" (someone get a red pen, for the 
> love of Ford) ... "love of Ford" (please update your literary 
> references to the current century and then cross them out) ...
>
>
>
> ---
> Kenneth M. Steele, Ph.D.  steel...@appstate.edu
> Professor
> Department of Psychology  http://www.psych.appstate.edu
> Appalachian State University
> Boone, NC 28608
> USA
> ---
>
>
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Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread Ken Steele

Lilienfeld, Scott O wrote:

Hi All ..out of town right now but will send along some info over the
weekend or early next week at the latest, In the meantime, I'd like to
voice a concern. I find the tone of some of your postings, Mike, to be
needlessly snarky and obnoxious.  What gives? Is there any reason why
you can't merely disagree with others without finding some gratuitous
way of putting them down?

Apologies to listserv members for being grumpy about this, but the
older I get the more I tire of less than respectful discourse...Scott
Sent from my iPhone



Of course, I can not speak for Mike P but I will leap in with a 
comment at this point.


We all know the formula for writing an empirical research report. 
 They can be pretty dusty and most of us try to sneak in at 
least one interesting turn of phrase.  When we are freed of those 
strictures and are writing commentaries (or blogs or ms. reviews 
or other such pieces) then the temptation is to go for the 
literary.


I was once asked to write a commentary and I passed on a 
preliminary version to a mentor.  His single written comment was 
"you have committed the sin of being literary."  I was stunned 
after all my work on catchy phrases but after some thought 
realized that he was correct.  I had been reaching for felicitous 
phrases to impress my audience when I should have been 
concentrating on the logic of my argument.


The issue with TIPS is that we don't have crusty editors to chop 
away adjectives, adverbs, and other sparklies which sound good to 
my ears but may sound extreme to others.


Ken

PS - "felicitous phrases" ... "sparklies" (too literary; it's a 
disease, my friends) ... "my friends" (someone get a red pen, for 
the love of Ford) ... "love of Ford" (please update your literary 
references to the current century and then cross them out) ...




---
Kenneth M. Steele, Ph.D.  steel...@appstate.edu
Professor
Department of Psychology  http://www.psych.appstate.edu
Appalachian State University
Boone, NC 28608
USA
---


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Re: [tips] When the scientific evidence is unwelcome, people try to reason it away

2010-07-15 Thread Michael Smith
...I was up in Tobermory :-) with no internet so happily couldn't
respond to Mike P's deeply insightful reply (lol).

The funniest was the insights and understandings part, especially
considering Mike P here:

> Ah, irony!  I love it when it comes so think one can cut it with a knife.
> Quoting from the article:
> Research results not consistent with your world view? Then you're
> likely to believe science can't supply all the answers

I suppose that Mike believes that the statement is obviously
true--after all, it was in a popular article and he considers the
article's conclusions so strong that they are worth quoting! ...Now
there's an insightful soccer-science at its best.

All in all, pretty funny.

--Mike

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Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread Lilienfeld, Scott O
Hi All ..out of town right now but will send along some info over the
weekend or early next week at the latest, In the meantime, I'd like to
voice a concern. I find the tone of some of your postings, Mike, to be
needlessly snarky and obnoxious.  What gives? Is there any reason why
you can't merely disagree with others without finding some gratuitous
way of putting them down?

Apologies to listserv members for being grumpy about this, but the
older I get the more I tire of less than respectful discourse...Scott
Sent from my iPhone

On Jul 15, 2010, at 4:02 PM, "Mike Palij"  wrote:

> On Thu, 15 Jul 2010 10:55:39 -0700, Ken Steele wrote:
>> I think one of Stephen's concerns was raised in the letter by
>> Prof. Sakinofsky to the BMJ.
>
> Since Stephen hasn't bothered to explain what his point(s)
> were, we're left to speculating and playing mindreaders.
> As I tried to point out in my previous post, Stephen focused
> on the number of suicides on Bloor St, not on the overall
> number of suicides in Toronto.  Consequently, the finding
> of suicides going to zero on Bloor St might make one wonder
> what was Stephen's point about the problem with "naturalistic
> experimetns".  As Sakinofsky says:
>
> |...the intent to erect anti-suicide barriers at the bridge was
> |never to replace a comprehensive program, as the authors
> |seem to imply, but merely to be one small cog in the whole
> |wheel of comprehensive suicide prevention.
>
> So, did the barrier accomplish its immediate goal?  Yes.
> For reasons that are not clear in the article, some larger impact
> was expected.  Scott points out that there may be research
> reported in Joiner's book "Myths About Suicide" that would
> lead one to expect more general effects -- quoting Scott's post:
>
> |the finding runs counter to most received wisdom in the suicide
> |field (again, see Joiner's recent book, "Myths about Suicide," which
> |is quite unambiguous on this point), which proposes that erecting
> |barriers on bridges results in a overall decrease in suicide, not
> |merely a decrease at the targeted location (because most suicides
> |are ostensibly committed following an activation of short-term
> impulses).
>
> I have not read "Myths About Suicide" so I don't know what
> research Scott is referrring to but in the article by Sinyor and
> Levitt
> there is the following sidebar on page 6, just before the reference
> list:
>
> |WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC
> |
> |Evidence shows that barriers decrease or eliminate suicides at
> bridges
> |commonly used for suicide by jumping
> |
> |***No study has shown a statistical drop in overall rates of
> suicide after
> |the construction of a barrier on a bridge  **
> |
> |It is unclear whether barriers prevent suicides or simply result in
> people
> |substituting one bridge for another or attempting suicide by other
> means
> |
> |WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS
> |
> |No suicides occurred at Bloor Street Viaduct in Toronto after the
> construction
> |of a barrier Suicide rates by jumping were unchanged owing to a
> corresponding
> |increase in jumps from other bridges and buildings in the area
> |
> |Therefore barriers may not decrease suicide rates when comparable
> locations
> |are available
>
> Now, I've used  to highlight the relvenat text above about the
> lack of
> change in overall suicide rates after the construction of a barrier
> on a bridge.
> Scott seems to imply that this statement is false.  I don't know if
> Stpehen agrees
> or disagrees with what was written in the article and/or Scott and/
> or some other
> source.  I think there is, however, some reason to ask what ther
> hell are
> people talking about.
>
>> Prof. Sakinofsky pointed out that bridge-jumping suicides
>> did decrease (from 18 to 14) during that time period but
>> the difference was not statistically significant. Since the N
>> is so low, there is a concern about a lack of power in the
>> comparison. In other words, the lack of significance may
>> represent a Type II error.
>
> I saw this and noted it.  I also wondered if there was a
> randomization or permutation test might produce a significant
> result.  But this is somewhat besides the point (if one can hazard
> what the point is).  Sakinofsky says the following:
>
> |The authors point out that "no study of a suicide barrier has
> |shown a statistically significant drop in overall suicide rates
> |in the vicinity". This may be true for bridge barriers, because
> |they protect only small numbers of people,
>
> So, Scott seems to be wrong on this point.  I haven't any idea
> what Stephen's opinion is on this point.  However, Scott's point
> appears to be supported by other (non-bridge) interventions:
>
> |but certainly it is untrue for suicide methods chosen by larger
> |demographic groups. This was, for example, shown when Britain
> |converted from coal gas to carbon monoxide-free natural gas in
> |the late 1950s. Suicide rates between 1960-71 fell overall as a
> |result but stayed down

Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread Mike Palij
On Thu, 15 Jul 2010 10:55:39 -0700, Ken Steele wrote:
>I think one of Stephen's concerns was raised in the letter by 
>Prof. Sakinofsky to the BMJ. 

Since Stephen hasn't bothered to explain what his point(s)
were, we're left to speculating and playing mindreaders.
As I tried to point out in my previous post, Stephen focused
on the number of suicides on Bloor St, not on the overall
number of suicides in Toronto.  Consequently, the finding
of suicides going to zero on Bloor St might make one wonder
what was Stephen's point about the problem with "naturalistic
experimetns".  As Sakinofsky says:

|...the intent to erect anti-suicide barriers at the bridge was 
|never to replace a comprehensive program, as the authors 
|seem to imply, but merely to be one small cog in the whole 
|wheel of comprehensive suicide prevention.

So, did the barrier accomplish its immediate goal?  Yes.
For reasons that are not clear in the article, some larger impact
was expected.  Scott points out that there may be research
reported in Joiner's book "Myths About Suicide" that would
lead one to expect more general effects -- quoting Scott's post:

|the finding runs counter to most received wisdom in the suicide 
|field (again, see Joiner's recent book, "Myths about Suicide," which 
|is quite unambiguous on this point), which proposes that erecting 
|barriers on bridges results in a overall decrease in suicide, not 
|merely a decrease at the targeted location (because most suicides 
|are ostensibly committed following an activation of short-term impulses).  

I have not read "Myths About Suicide" so I don't know what
research Scott is referrring to but in the article by Sinyor and Levitt
there is the following sidebar on page 6, just before the reference list:

|WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC
|
|Evidence shows that barriers decrease or eliminate suicides at bridges 
|commonly used for suicide by jumping
|
|***No study has shown a statistical drop in overall rates of suicide after 
|the construction of a barrier on a bridge  **
|
|It is unclear whether barriers prevent suicides or simply result in people 
|substituting one bridge for another or attempting suicide by other means
|
|WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS
|
|No suicides occurred at Bloor Street Viaduct in Toronto after the construction 
|of a barrier Suicide rates by jumping were unchanged owing to a corresponding 
|increase in jumps from other bridges and buildings in the area
|
|Therefore barriers may not decrease suicide rates when comparable locations 
|are available

Now, I've used  to highlight the relvenat text above about the lack of
change in overall suicide rates after the construction of a barrier on a bridge.
Scott seems to imply that this statement is false.  I don't know if Stpehen 
agrees
or disagrees with what was written in the article and/or Scott and/or some other
source.  I think there is, however, some reason to ask what ther hell are
people talking about.

>Prof. Sakinofsky pointed out that bridge-jumping suicides 
>did decrease (from 18 to 14) during that time period but 
>the difference was not statistically significant. Since the N 
>is so low, there is a concern about a lack of power in the 
>comparison. In other words, the lack of significance may 
>represent a Type II error. 

I saw this and noted it.  I also wondered if there was a
randomization or permutation test might produce a significant
result.  But this is somewhat besides the point (if one can hazard
what the point is).  Sakinofsky says the following:

|The authors point out that "no study of a suicide barrier has 
|shown a statistically significant drop in overall suicide rates 
|in the vicinity". This may be true for bridge barriers, because 
|they protect only small numbers of people, 

So, Scott seems to be wrong on this point.  I haven't any idea
what Stephen's opinion is on this point.  However, Scott's point
appears to be supported by other (non-bridge) interventions:

|but certainly it is untrue for suicide methods chosen by larger 
|demographic groups. This was, for example, shown when Britain 
|converted from coal gas to carbon monoxide-free natural gas in 
|the late 1950s. Suicide rates between 1960-71 fell overall as a 
|result but stayed down only among the elderly demographic group 
|(where the time-honoured mode of suicide was putting one's head 
|in the gas oven). This prompted Norman Kreitman to speculate 
|that for some "it may be that the scenario of suicide specifies the 
|use of a particular method and that if this is not available actual 
|suicide is then less likely" (3). 

Perhaps there has been a lack of clarity in several instances.
Perhaps some folks don't realize their lack of clarity until it has
been pointed out.
Perhaps some folks don't realize their lack of clairy even after
it has been pointed out.

In closing, giving the seriousness of the topic, I suggest the following 
website:

http://babyanimalz.com/

-Mike Palij
New York University
m...@nyu.edu



---

Re: [tips] Bloor street bridge suicide study

2010-07-15 Thread Ken Steele



I think one of Stephen's concerns was raised in the letter by 
Prof. Sakinofsky to the BMJ.


Prof. Sakinofsky pointed out that bridge-jumping suicides did 
decrease (from 18 to 14) during that time period but the 
difference was not statistically significant.  Since the N is so 
low, there is a concern about a lack of power in the comparison. 
 In other words, the lack of significance may represent a Type 
II error.


Ken


Mike Palij wrote:

|before the barrier and none after the barrier (P<0.01).

So, the barrier appears to have been effective in stopping suicides
from the Bloor St bridge.  Overall, the suicide rate in Toronto
remained the same, indicating that people who wanted to commit
suicide used different means to achieve that end.

I'm not sure what it is that Stephen lacks confidence in but it does
suggest that people might be a little more specific in their posts.

-Mike Palij
New York University
m...@nyu.edu




---
Kenneth M. Steele, Ph.D.  steel...@appstate.edu
Professor and Assistant Chairperson
Department of Psychology  http://www.psych.appstate.edu
Appalachian State University
Boone, NC 28608
USA
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[tips] Hypothetical: experimental procedure

2010-07-15 Thread michael sylvester
You are about to conduct an experiment and despite all your efforts to achieve 
equivalence between the experimental and the control group,a couple of subjects 
come in drunk or stoned.
What do you do?
a) eject the drunk /stoned subjects from the experiment
b) achieve equivance by making all subjects drunk/stoned
c) revise your experiment to fit a randomized block design
d) change to a matching design( One drunk/stoned control will have one 
drunk/stoned experimental partner).
e) do the Jimmy Buffet " Why don't  all get drunk and SKEW the results."
But seriously ,are there situations where challenges to experimental procedure 
may arise and what corrective measures can be undertaken? How critical is the 
health status of volunteers to experimental procedure? Would you allow subjects 
who are on prescription marijuana medication to volunteer for your research?
(better test for interaction,eh?)
Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
Daytona Veach.Florida


Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
Daytona Beach,Florida
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[tips] TIPSTER OF THE WEEK

2010-07-15 Thread michael sylvester
 GEORGE   STEINBRENNER

'Winning is everything"

Michael "omnicentric" Sylvester,PhD
Daytona Beach,Florida
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[tips] Frontiers review on confidence intervals vs significance testing

2010-07-15 Thread sblack
A new open-access peer-reviewed set of journals has opened 
its pages at http://www.frontiersin.org/aboutfrontiers/

Their bold slogan: "Frontiers reviews: Unbiased, fair, and real 
time".  They go on:

"The Frontiers journal series are a new approach to scientific 
publishing... driven by researchers for researchers, while 
serving the interests of the general public...Our research 
evaluation system is democratic and objective, and based on 
the reading activity of not only scientific communities, but that of 
the general public."

There's much more, and it does sound impressive if close to the 
truth.  I'm sure there must be an interesting story behind the 
founding of this initiative. Perhaps some on TIPS know more 
about it.

Anyway, there's a paper fropm a group whose names I 
recognize as having done respectable work elsewhere just 
published there.  The topic may interest some of our statistics 
and methodology mavens, if not TIPSters in general, to wit:

Coulson M, Healey M, Fidler F and Cumming G (2010). 
Confidence intervals permit, but don't guarantee, better 
inference than statistical significance testing. Frontiers in 
Quantitative Psychology and Measurement 1:26. 
doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2010.00026

See 
http://www.frontiersin.org/psychology/quantitativepsychologyand
measurement/ or http://tinyurl.com/29a4xzn

[Checked Wiki: It's there, and says founded as a non-profit 
Swiss foundation in 2009. Not much more, except for a list of 
journals, primarly neuroscience] 

(I sure hope this post passes the Palij test for clarity).

Stephen

Stephen L. Black, Ph.D.  
Professor of Psychology, Emeritus   
Bishop's University   
e-mail:  sblack at ubishops.ca
2600 College St.
Sherbrooke QC  J1M 1Z7
Canada
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[tips] Bring your genes to Cal

2010-07-15 Thread Beth Benoit
"Incoming freshmen at the College of Letters and Science at the University
of California Berkeley will be offered voluntary DNA tests to analyze genes
that help control the body's responses to alcohol, dairy products and folic
acid. Robert Siegel talks with Mark Schlissel, dean of biological science at
the college, about the plan."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128519759

Beth Benoit
Granite State College
Plymouth State University
New Hampshire

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