Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread Kevin Stover 
It turns out that there have been two cycles back to back with what we 
would consider bad numbers. They started in 1800 and it lasted three 
cycles. It's called the Dalton minimum.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

On 6/5/2016 2:50 PM, Kevin Stover wrote:
If I read the reference material correctly there have never been two 
low cycles in a row except during the Maunder minimum back in 1645 to 
1715.



--
R. Kevin Stover
AC0H
ARRL
FISTS #11993
SKCC #215
NAQCC #3441


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Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread Kevin Stover 
I did a general Google search on the Maunder minimum and clicked on the 
Wikipedia page describing the phenomena.
Looking at some of the references for that article leads me to believe 
what I do. if cycle 25 turns out to be as bad, or as predicted, worse 
than cycle 24, then I think that strongly suggests it.


If I read the reference material correctly there have never been two low 
cycles in a row except during the Maunder minimum back in 1645 to 1715. 
Surprisingly pretty good sunspot data was kept by several people 
including Cassini. From 1610 to 1680 less than 10 sunspots per year was 
a regular occurrence. Twice during that time no sunspots were observed 
for an entire year.  They did extrapolate those dismal numbers and did 
find an 11 year maxima in the years 1676, 1684, 1695, 1705 and 1716 but 
they were very low.


One stat really grabbed me. During the minimum in the 28 year period 
between 1672 and 1699 there were 50 sunspots total. That's not a week or 
a month but two 11year cycles worth. During modern times we would expect 
to see 40-50K during a like 28 year period.


Cycle 24 may not be the predictor of a new Maunder Minimum, other than 
how fast we are sliding down the backside. It seems faster to me. Cycle 
25 is probably going to be the proof one way or the other.


Here is the Wikipedia Link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

On 6/5/2016 12:43 PM, donov...@starpower.net wrote:

Hi Kevin,


Please share with us how you're begun to think that Cycle 24 will be
looked at as the beginning of a new Maunder Minimum.


Thanks


73
Frank
W3LPL


- Original Message -

From: "Kevin Stover" 
To: topband@contesting.com
Sent: Sunday, June 5, 2016 3:40:53 PM
Subject: Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

Thanks Bill.

I think Cycle 24 will be looked at as the beginning of a new Maunder
Minimum.
If so then Cycle 24 will be as good as it gets for the next 70 years on
the high bands.

On 6/5/2016 10:05 AM, Jeff Kinzli N6GQ wrote:

Bill, good reads, thank you.

It seems that the consensus is that cycle 25 will be less active than
cycle 24, with some projections putting it at the lowest in many
cycles. I think the theory is that the speed of the conveyor belt is
an indicator the vigor of the coming cycle.

Do we have any predictions that are gaining acceptance that give us
any clues on what the rest of cycle 24 will look like, and the
beginning of cycle 25? I guess its no mistake you posted this on
topband - meaning we've got a nice topband future for the coming
years, but maybe highbands not so much?

Very interested in continued discussion...

73 de N6GQ


On Sun, Jun 5, 2016 at 5:47 AM, Bill Tippett  wrote:

Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the
sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th.
Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant
dark cores.

What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and
forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years.
Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low
sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming.

The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible
surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of
magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The
current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning
<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between
now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank
stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect
space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting
changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun
decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows
space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks,
bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate
the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge
<http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/> is
already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation!

http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/
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--
R. Kevin Stover
AC0H
ARRL
FISTS #11993
SKCC #215
NAQCC #3441


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Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread donovanf 
Hi Kevin, 


Please share with us how you're begun to think that Cycle 24 will be 
looked at as the beginning of a new Maunder Minimum. 


Thanks 


73 
Frank 
W3LPL 


- Original Message -

From: "Kevin Stover"  
To: topband@contesting.com 
Sent: Sunday, June 5, 2016 3:40:53 PM 
Subject: Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/) 

Thanks Bill. 

I think Cycle 24 will be looked at as the beginning of a new Maunder 
Minimum. 
If so then Cycle 24 will be as good as it gets for the next 70 years on 
the high bands. 

On 6/5/2016 10:05 AM, Jeff Kinzli N6GQ wrote: 
> Bill, good reads, thank you. 
> 
> It seems that the consensus is that cycle 25 will be less active than 
> cycle 24, with some projections putting it at the lowest in many 
> cycles. I think the theory is that the speed of the conveyor belt is 
> an indicator the vigor of the coming cycle. 
> 
> Do we have any predictions that are gaining acceptance that give us 
> any clues on what the rest of cycle 24 will look like, and the 
> beginning of cycle 25? I guess its no mistake you posted this on 
> topband - meaning we've got a nice topband future for the coming 
> years, but maybe highbands not so much? 
> 
> Very interested in continued discussion... 
> 
> 73 de N6GQ 
> 
> 
> On Sun, Jun 5, 2016 at 5:47 AM, Bill Tippett  wrote: 
>> Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the 
>> sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th. 
>> Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant 
>> dark cores. 
>> 
>> What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and 
>> forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years. 
>> Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low 
>> sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming. 
>> 
>> The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible 
>> surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of 
>> magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The 
>> current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning 
>> <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>. 
>> 
>> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression 
>> 
>> Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between 
>> now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank 
>> stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect 
>> space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting 
>> changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun 
>> decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows 
>> space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks, 
>> bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate 
>> the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge 
>> <http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/> 
>> is 
>> already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation! 
>> 
>> http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/ 
>> _ 
>> Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband 
> _ 
> Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband 
> 


-- 
R. Kevin Stover 
AC0H 
ARRL 
FISTS #11993 
SKCC #215 
NAQCC #3441 


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Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread W2RU - Bud Hippisley 

> On Jun 5, 2016, at 11:40 53AM, Kevin Stover  
> wrote:
> 
> I think Cycle 24 will be looked at as the beginning of a new Maunder Minimum.
> If so then Cycle 24 will be as good as it gets for the next 70 years on the 
> high bands.

That’s not all bad.  It gives me plenty of time to finish getting my towers and 
antennas up, here at my new QTH.

Bud, W2RU
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Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread Kevin Stover 

Thanks Bill.

I think Cycle 24 will be looked at as the beginning of a new Maunder 
Minimum.
If so then Cycle 24 will be as good as it gets for the next 70 years on 
the high bands.


On 6/5/2016 10:05 AM, Jeff Kinzli N6GQ wrote:

Bill, good reads, thank you.

It seems that the consensus is that cycle 25 will be less active than
cycle 24, with some projections putting it at the lowest in many
cycles. I think the theory is that the speed of the conveyor belt is
an indicator the vigor of the coming cycle.

Do we have any predictions that are gaining acceptance that give us
any clues on what the rest of cycle 24 will look like, and the
beginning of cycle 25? I guess its no mistake you posted this on
topband - meaning we've got a nice topband future for the coming
years, but maybe highbands not so much?

Very interested in continued discussion...

73 de N6GQ


On Sun, Jun 5, 2016 at 5:47 AM, Bill Tippett  wrote:

Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the
sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th.
Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant
dark cores.

What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and
forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years.
Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low
sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming.

The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible
surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of
magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The
current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning
.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between
now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank
stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect
space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting
changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun
decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows
space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks,
bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate
the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge
 is
already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation!

http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/
_
Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband

_
Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband




--
R. Kevin Stover
AC0H
ARRL
FISTS #11993
SKCC #215
NAQCC #3441


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Re: Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread Jeff Kinzli N6GQ 
Bill, good reads, thank you.

It seems that the consensus is that cycle 25 will be less active than
cycle 24, with some projections putting it at the lowest in many
cycles. I think the theory is that the speed of the conveyor belt is
an indicator the vigor of the coming cycle.

Do we have any predictions that are gaining acceptance that give us
any clues on what the rest of cycle 24 will look like, and the
beginning of cycle 25? I guess its no mistake you posted this on
topband - meaning we've got a nice topband future for the coming
years, but maybe highbands not so much?

Very interested in continued discussion...

73 de N6GQ


On Sun, Jun 5, 2016 at 5:47 AM, Bill Tippett  wrote:
> Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the
> sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th.
> Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant
> dark cores.
>
> What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and
> forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years.
> Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low
> sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming.
>
> The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible
> surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of
> magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The
> current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning
> .
>
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
>
> Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between
> now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank
> stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect
> space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting
> changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun
> decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows
> space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks,
> bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate
> the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge
>  is
> already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation!
>
> http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/
> _
> Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband
_
Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband

Topband: VANISHING SUNSPOTS (http://spaceweather.com/)

2016-06-05 Thread Bill Tippett 
Something interesting is happening on the sun. Yesterday, June 3rd, the
sunspot number dropped to 0, and the solar disk is still blank on June 5th.
Latest images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal no significant
dark cores.

What does this mean? The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and
forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years.
Today's blank sun is a sign that the pendulum is swinging toward low
sunspot numbers. In other words, Solar Minimum is coming.

The spotless state of today's sun is just temporary. Underneath the visible
surface of the sun, the solar dynamo is still churning out knots of
magnetism that will soon bob to the surface to make new sunspots. The
current solar cycle is not finished. It is, however, rapidly waning
.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Forecasters expect the next Solar Minimum to arrive in 2019-2020. Between
now and then, there will be lots of spotless suns. At first, the blank
stretches will be measured in days; later in weeks and months. Don't expect
space weather to grow quiet, however. Solar Minimum brings many interesting
changes. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun
decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows
space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks,
bringing interstellar space closer to Earth. Galactic cosmic rays penetrate
the inner solar system with relative ease. Indeed, a cosmic ray surge
 is
already underway. Goodbye sunspots, hello deep-space radiation!

http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-continue-to-intensify-feb-2016/
_
Topband Reflector Archives - http://www.contesting.com/_topband