http://in.news.yahoo.com/070926/48/6l8xe.html
Thu, Sep 27 Crown doesn't pinch By IE Thursday September 27, 01:53 AM There is talk of anti-incumbency in the air in Gujarat. Caste and community groups like the Patidars, Kolis, Tribals, OBCs, Brahmins, Muslims, Dalits as well as Sangh Parivar outfits like the VHP, RSS, and BKS are seen declaring their resentment against the Modi-led BJP dispensation. Analyses in the electronic and print media show that the BJP's dominance in Gujarat is shaken and declining. How realistic is this scenario? The CSDS conducted a countrywide opinion poll, interviewing 18,750 voters in 18 states in the first week of September 2007. This survey was sponsored by The Indian Express and CNN-IBN. In Gujarat, a total of 1,075 voters in 48 polling stations of 12 assembly constituencies were interviewed. When asked about their being satisfied or dissatisfied with Modi's rule of the last five years in the state, 66 per cent reported being satisfied and 19 per cent were dissatisfied. Besides, 38 per cent voters in Gujarat have chosen Modi instead of Vajpayee, Advani, Jaitley and Rajnath Singh as the BJP leader for the next LS poll. When asked to name one leader from different parties as prime minister of the country, Modi was the second highest choice of 23 per cent Gujarat voters as against Sonia Gandhi who ranked at the top with 24 per cent. These, by any measure, are formidable ratings for an incumbent leader and party. The overall gap in the vote share between the BJP and Congress, which had narrowed in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll by 3 per cent, has once again expanded to its earlier decade-old position of 10 per cent. Secondly, the answers to the question: "... if polls are held tomorrow, which party will you vote for..." yielded some interesting revelations. The BJP's strongest social support group, comprising of the Patidars, has not only remained intact but their support has increased from 82 per cent for the BJP in the post-Godhra 2002 poll and 75 per cent in the 2004 Lok Sabha poll to 83 per cent as reported in this survey. Also, the much hyped threats of withdrawal of support to the Modi-led BJP by the coastal Kolis and Brahmins are not supported by the survey data. Actually, it is the tribal voters who have changed their party preference in a big way. In the 2002 assembly poll, 34 per cent tribals voted for the BJP as against 49 per cent for the Congress. In the 2004 LS poll, 48 per cent tribals voted for the BJP as against 46 per cent for the Congress. The present survey shows that the tribal support to BJP has slid, as only 27 per cent will vote for the BJP and 69 per cent for the Congress. The OBC vote share of the BJP which slipped from 57 per cent in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2004 has been retrieved by the BJP and it stands today at 60 per cent. The Dalit, Bania, Rajput and Muslim vote shares are withheld from the analysis due to their small numbers. This political sociology of Gujarat voters' preferences places the BJP in a comfortable position. The rebellion, factionalism, and leadership crisis in the BJP are apparently only skin deep. The overall pre-poll picture shows that while the Congress's total vote share has marginally declined from 45 per cent in 2004 to 43 per cent now in 2007, the BJP has raced ahead from 47 per cent in 2004 to 54 per cent now. The anti-BJP and anti-Modi mood, it seems, is superficial. One caveat is in order: pre-poll surveys usually contain a pro-ruling party bias. But on the whole, this survey shows that the BJP under Modi continues to dominate the electoral contest in the state. The writer is professor of political science at MSU-Baroda, and is the Gujarat State Coordinator for Lokniti Research Programme, CSDS, Delhi
