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Stasi wrote: > STRATFOR > > Venezuela: Successful Counterstrike Unlikely, but Violence Possible > 12 April 2002 > > Venezuelan Army commander Gen. Efrain Vasquez Velasco has ordered the > army > to work with the country's attorney general to identify, disarm and > dismantle civilian militias organized as Bolivarian Circles. Numerous > members of these groups, which were organized and coordinated by former > Vice > President Diosdado Cabello, participated in an armed attack April 11 > against > protesters who were peacefully demanding the resignation of President > Hugo > Chavez. > > Members of the Bolivarian Circles have gone into hiding since the armed > forces moved against Chavez. Although there is little or no danger that > these groups could launch a successful counterstrike to regain control > of > the government, they do have the capacity to carry out violent attacks > in > Caracas and other urban areas. Such attacks could terrorize the populace > and > hinder the transition government's efforts to maintain public order > while > the institutional bases for new national elections are being put in > place. > > Additionally, pro-Chavez extremists in rural regions could try to link > up > with Colombian guerrillas operating inside Venezuelan territory, if such > links do not already exist. In fact, evidence compiled on both sides of > the > Venezuela-Colombia border since Chavez became president in early 1999 > indicates very strongly that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia > (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) have infiltrated > Venezuelan > territory at numerous points along the 1,200-mile border. > > With Chavez out of office, FARC and ELN leaders may conclude that it is > to > their tactical and strategic advantage to help "Bolivarian" extremist > groups > plan and execute attacks in urban and rural areas of Venezuela. By > supporting militant action and political conflict there, the FARC and > ELN > may hope to disperse some U.S. military support that otherwise might be > sent > directly to Colombia. If the guerrilla groups choose this tactic, attack > methods could include kidnappings, car and bicycle bombs, targeted > assassinations and mass killing sprees in public locations like > restaurants. > Moreover, U.S. citizens and companies in Venezuela could become targets > in > the coming months for both Venezuelan and Colombian extremist groups. > > Vasquez Velasco, who so far appears to be the principal leader of the > nearly > bloodless military rebellion that forced Chavez to resign, expects to > minimize the potential threat of low-intensity counterstrikes against > the > new government by implementing an aggressive disarmament plan, with the > help > of civilian police and prosecutors. The general indicated the plan would > include court-authorized searches of private property and vehicles and > other > measures to seize all unregistered weapons. > > Vasquez Velasco also confirmed that military and civilian police are > conducting a national search for former vice president Cabello and > Libertador Municipality Mayor Freddy Bernal. Sources in the new > government > told STRATFOR that Cabello was the chief organizer and financier of the > armed Bolivarian Circles, while Bernal commanded sharpshooters who shot > at > the anti-Chavez protesters from rooftops in downtown Caracas on April > 11. > > > --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
