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International Crisis Group (www.crisisweb.org)
PRESS RELEASE
Bosnia's precarious economy: still not open for business


SARAJEVO/BRUSSELS, 7 August 2001: Bosnia's economic reality is still bleak. 
After more than five years and five billion dollars of Dayton implementation, 
the country remains in the early days of an economic transition that should 
have begun in 1996. 

In a new report released today, Bosnia's Precarious Economy: Still not Open 
for Business, the International Crisis Group (ICG) provides an analytical 
snapshot of the Bosnian economy. It argues that - if the country is finally 
to capitalise on the promise held out by peace - urgent and wide-ranging 
reforms are needed that require the active engagement of Bosnians and the 
international community. 

While many impressive gains have been registered since the signing of the 
November 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, these have not moved Bosnia 
significantly closer to sustainable economic growth or created an environment 
attractive to more than a handful of foreign investors. 

Most importantly, the international community has taken insufficient action 
to cut the Gordian knot that binds Bosnia's politicians to its state-owned 
firms and allows them to benefit from the funds and jobs they generate. This 
is seen most clearly in the failure of international efforts to ensure the 
rapid and effective privatisation of the commanding heights of the Bosnian 
economy and the creation of a single, country-wide, economic space. 

ICG's Bosnia project director Mark Wheeler said: "The engagement of the 
international community has been unbalanced in one major respect. Rather than 
attempting to carry out the numerous microeconomic reforms needed to make 
Bosnia attractive to investors, the international community has focused on 
institution-building and on strengthening the several Bosnian governments' 
abilities to collect revenues. While this is important and necessary, a 
strong state does not in and of itself generate economic growth. What must be 
tackled more effectively now are the underlying causes of corruption and tax 
evasion, mainly the unreasonable and irrational tax codes and business 
regulations that force much economic activity underground." 

The past unwillingness of many Bosnian politicians to enact meaningful 
reforms, particularly in Republika Srpska and in the Croat majority areas of 
the Federation, argues for more aggressive and specifically targeted action 
by the international community. 

As international attention turns away from Bosnia to its neighbours to the 
south and east, Bosnians and the international organisations working with 
them must focus urgently on weaning the economy off its dependence on foreign 
aid. Without a business environment attractive to foreign and domestic 
investors alike, Bosnia's European future will remain in jeopardy. 

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