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Possibilities for the future of Cyprus
Benjamin TyreePublished 4/26/2002
The U.N.-monitored, cloaked-from-the-media,
discussions regarding the divided island nation of Cyprus may yet provide an
example of how estranged ethnic communities can become
reconciled.
At present, tiny Cyprus, with 3,500
square miles, or less than half the size of Israel, is making slow and uncertain
but occasionally perceptible progress in a healing dialogue between the leaders
of its once violently torn Orthodox Greek and Muslim Turkish groups, totaling
less than 800,000 people.
The internationally
recognized Republic of Cyprus controls less than two-thirds of the island, and a
large majority of its population, chiefly those of Greek origin and
culture.
The less populous Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is officially recognized only by Turkey. Turkish troops
have occupied this area as a protectorate for their Turkish Cypriot compatriots
since 1974, following a decade of intermittent ethnic clashes between factions
of the indigenous Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot
communities.
Four decades ago, many Greek
Cypriots sought "enosis," or union with Greece. Today, the Republic of Cyprus
seeks reunification of the island as a "bicommunal, bizonal, federated state,"
with a single international identity. The TRNC's Turkish Cypriot population has
been diminished by emigration but augmented by citizens of Turkey (estimates
range between 40,000 and 115,000) settled there over the objections of the
Republic of Cyprus. The TRNC remains skittish about reunification, and has
sought recognized sovereignty for itself and a looser
confederation.
Held out to Turkish Cypriots and
to Turkey are the benefits of Turkish-speaking communities becoming part of the
European Union, after the Republic of Cyprus is finally admitted — perhaps by
the end of this year. Trade, tourism and EU aid would flow to both Cypriot
communities. The relationship between the two ethnic communities would be
managed in the larger context of EU human-rights assurances and other
rules.
But Turkish Cypriots express worries
about a reprise of the strife-ridden past and possible economic domination by
the Greek Cypriots. Property-rights issues are another
hurdle.
Greek Cypriots argue that Turkey's
prospects for eventual EU membership would be facilitated by Turkish becoming an
official EU language (as one of the languages of Cyprus), and by ending the
island's division. Resolving the Cyprus question would, moreover, augur well for
continued, closer rapprochement between NATO members Greece and Turkey and could
provide a democratic example for a civil settlement of the longstanding tensions
between the Orthodox Christian and Islamic populations throughout the nearby
Balkan region.
Thus far, the Republic of Cyprus
has held the cards of recognition and support by international organizations and
has assumed a modern stance supportive of full rights for all citizens of Cyprus
— Greek and Turkish Cypriot alike.
The TRNC has
held the cards of old injuries and grievances and of support by Turkey. But
these may be diminishing assets as all parties look expectantly toward accession
to the pan-ethnic EU and a wider
future.
American sources familiar with the
Cyprus question say key obstacles to its resolution include Turkey's security
concerns — plausible or not — regarding any future role on the island by parties
unfriendly to Turkish interests.
One U.S.
source agreed that the issues involving post-1974 Turkish settlers from Anatolia
could prove more difficult than Cypriot officials like to think. The Republic of
Cyprus views the settlers as part of an illegal and internationally opposed
occupation of the north by Turkey.
But Greek
Cypriot officials display no disposition for wrenching expulsions. In recent
discussions with journalists, former Cyprus President George Vassiliou
emphasized financial incentives to facilitate repatriation of the settlers to
Turkey. A right of settlement is evidently acceptable for those who have
intermarried with the indigenous
population.
There have been vague suggestions,
difficult to pin down, that place of birth might provide a basis for certain
rights. However, Demetris Christofias, president of the Cyprus House of
Representatives, emphasized during a mid-April Washington visit that parentage
would be the decisive element in citizenship. Mr. Vassiliou earlier mentioned
limited residency rights or work permits might be possible for settlers who
prove to be economic assets.
American observers
note that financial commitments to Cyprus upon its accession to the EU —
involving hundreds of millions of euros — will result in major development of
the island's infrastructure with huge economic implications for a nation of its
small size and population. Some of the present settlers, one U.S. source hinted,
might turn out to be needed and preferable to other outside sources of labor
from the Middle East.
Weighing on U.S.
foreign-policy thinking is the crucial role of Turkey as a moderate Muslim
nation, providing a counterpoint to Islamic religious extremism, and a staging
area for the Western allies in any widened Middle East war. Cyprus itself would
remain uninvolved, but large British air bases held there as British sovereign
territory would be in play.
Nearly two
generations after bloody intercommunal clashes, it would be better for both
sides in Cyprus to recognize the inherent dangers of retaining or renewing what
Mr. Christofias described as the "past mistakes of chauvinists on both
sides."
The most modern and democratized
society in the Islamic world and the culture that first articulated a democratic
vision face a decisive moment, and an enormous shared opportunity. Can they
afford not to grasp
it?
Benjamin
Tyree is deputy editor of the Commentary pages of The Washington Times.
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