HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK ---------------------------
----- Original Message ----- From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Wednesday, November 28, 2001 11:36 PM Subject: U.S. - Beyond Afghanistan > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > S T R A T F O R > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY > > http://www.stratfor.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > > 28 November 2001 > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT FOR MEMBERS ONLY > > -> ON OUR WEBSITE TODAY FOR MEMBERS ONLY: > > * Beyond Afghanistan, War Theater Will Be Diffuse > http://www.stratfor.com/northamerica/commentary/0111282230.htm > > * Russia Central Bank Directive Harms Europe > http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0111282150.htm > > * Somali Power Grab May Give Cover for U.S. Special Ops > http://www.stratfor.com/africa/commentary/0111282100.htm > > ___________________________________________________________________ > > Beyond Afghanistan, War Theater Will Be Diffuse > > Summary > > U.S. President George W. Bush recently warned Iraq and North > Korea against producing or selling weapons of mass destruction. > The statements have raised speculations that these nations may be > the targets in Phase Two in the war on terrorism. Although > debates still rage within the administration, the next phase of > the war is unlikely to include another major military strike. > Instead, it will focus on destroying terrorist cells around the > world through military and intelligence assistance, special > operations and economic and police actions. > > Analysis > > U.S. President George W. Bush warned Iraq and North Korea on Nov. > 26 that Washington might view their weapons programs as > contributing to international terrorism. Responding to a question > about Iraq, Bush said countries developing "weapons of mass > destruction that will be used to terrorize nations ... will be > held accountable," according to the Associated Press, and he > cautioned Pyongyang against proliferation, saying, "Part of the > war on terror is to deny terrorists weapons." > > Bush's comments have heightened already rampant speculation that > the United States may set its military sights on Iraq or even > North Korea as the war in Afghanistan winds down. Despite rumored > debates within the administration, a major military strike on > another nation is unlikely in the near future. Rather, Phase Two > in the war on terrorism will involve low-key attacks on terrorist > cells and support networks through military and intelligence > assistance, special operations and economic and police actions. > > Washington's ultimate goal in the war is to prevent any future > attack on U.S. soil or against U.S. assets abroad. Its first > priority, then, is to destroy the operational capabilities of the > al Qaeda network, which is believed to have facilitated the Sept. > 11 attacks on New York and Washington. Al Qaeda's diffuse > structure means Washington's next battle, which has already > begun, is taking place in the broader global arena, where cells > and coordination nodes have been little affected by the fighting > in Afghanistan. > > The idea of follow-on military action in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan or > even North Korea has been bantered about since Sept. 11. Iraq in > particular was the subject of intense speculation, both for > alleged links to al Qaeda and contact with one of the Sept. 11 > hijackers and because of the connections between the current U.S. > administration and that of former President George Bush, who > prosecuted the 1991 war against Iraq. > > U.S. media have been rife with rumors and leaks of a heated > debate between the Defense and State departments regarding the > dangers and opportunities of "finishing" the work of the former > Bush administration: fomenting the downfall of Iraqi President > Saddam Hussein. State Department officials are concerned that an > assault on Iraq would only weaken the tenuous coalition against > terrorism -- particularly among Washington's Islamic partners, > whose cooperation is vital to tracking down and breaking > terrorist cells and communications networks. > > More recently, Washington has floated North Korea as another > potential target. North Korea is accused of producing and storing > biological weapons and developing and selling missiles to clients > in the Middle East. More important, from a political viewpoint, > targeting Pyongyang would bolster Washington's case that the war > on terrorism is not a war on Islam. > > Despite the debate over what to do once operations in Afghanistan > wind down, it is unlikely that any major military operation will > take place soon. Politically, striking Iraq would threaten > cooperation from other Arab and Islamic nations. The Arab League > and Syria already have sternly warned Washington that any attack > on Iraq or another Arab nation would lead to the dissolution of > the coalition. Even Egypt has indirectly cautioned the United > States against striking Iraq. > > Logistically, an attack on Iraq, beyond a slight intensification > of the day-to-day bombings in the northern and southern no-fly > zones, would take months to prepare. As for North Korea, the one > potential political benefit -- demonstrating Washington is not > solely targeting Islamic nations -- would be far outweighed by > the political backlash from South Korea, China and even Russia > and Japan. > > Instead, while Washington is issuing not-so-veiled threats > against Baghdad and Pyongyang, the real operations of Phase Two > are already under way. By warning "rogue nations" and other > countries that might consider aiding terrorists, Washington hopes > to scare them into compliance. At the same time, the United > States is working with nations around the world to track down, > disrupt and liquidate terrorist cells and their communications > and financial networks. > > This second phase of the war, which began at the same time if not > before the attacks on Afghanistan, will be more clandestine and > less media-friendly than the bombings of Kabul. Information in > this phase of the war will trickle and seep out, appearing > perhaps as many unrelated incidents. Far from being > uncoordinated, however, this broader international phase involves > close cooperation and intelligence-sharing among the United > States and its coalition partners. > > Phase Two comprises everything from shutting down bank accounts > and financial networks to small-scale special operations strikes > on suspected terrorist camps or coordination nodes. It also > includes a heavy emphasis on getting other nations to take the > primary role in cracking down on terrorists and their supporters > within their own borders. U.S. military aid to the Philippines is > a key example of this. > > Although Washington is sending advisers to Manila, it is relying > on the Philippine government and armed forces to actually > prosecute the war against the Abu Sayyaf militants and rogue > elements of the Moro National Liberation Front, which are > suspected of ties to al Qaeda and Egyptian terrorist groups. In > other countries, such as Tanzania and Ethiopia, Washington is > coordinating massive debt-forgiveness programs to help buy the > support of local governments. Other African nations, such as > Kenya, are also potential recipients of debt forgiveness. > > In Sudan, Washington's special envoy is working with the > government to bring about an end to nearly two decades of civil > war. Washington's relationship with Khartoum has been slowly > improving over the past year as the government seeks to shed its > label as a sponsor of terrorism and avoid being targeted again by > U.S. cruise missiles. > > Europe, too, is catching suspected terrorists, detaining those > thought linked to al Qaeda or the Sept. 11 attacks and shutting > down bank accounts and financial networks believed to support > terrorism. Even as financial and law enforcement agencies carry > out much of Phase Two, discrete military actions remain likely, > though on a small scale. > > Defense planners have suggested targeted strikes against > terrorist training camps and bases, either by missiles and bombs > or by special operations teams on the ground. Other possibilities > include high-seas interceptions of arms and personnel shipments > between terrorist cells, particularly in Africa, the Middle East > and Asia. Washington also is calling on Europe to participate in > small, joint military operations in areas where governments may > be unwilling or unable to root out terrorist operations. > > The fighting in Afghanistan is still far from over, and a > resolution even after the last Taliban stronghold falls will be > difficult. And the destruction of the Taliban was simply a means > to an end, not a goal in itself. Washington's primary objective > is to annihilate the operational capabilities of international > terrorist organizations in order to protect U.S. soil and assets. > Part of that means ensuring no nations give sanctuary, overtly or > tacitly, to terrorists. > > Although totally eliminating a threat against the United States > is impossible, Washington is taking the war to the terrorists -- > hitting them simultaneously around the world and thus > undercutting their ability to regroup, formulate or carry out > planned attacks. Ultimately, Washington may find it expedient to > carry out another large-scale military strike against a nation- > state like Iraq or Somalia. Such an operation, however, would > come only after all other means of denying terrorists sanctuary > in these nations had been exhausted. > > This, however, remains a long way off. > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SEND THIS TO A FRIEND! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > Did you like this analysis? Then forward it to a friend! > > Got this from a friend? Get your own by becoming a member! > > http://www.stratfor.com/COMPANY/info.htm > > <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > ___________________________________________________________________ > > CONTACTS AND CUSTOMER SERVICES: > STRATFOR > 700 Lavaca, Suite 405 Austin, TX 78701 > Phone: 512-744-4300 > Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ > Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > SIGN-UP: > To add or remove your e-mail address from our Global Intelligence Report > e-mail newsletter go to: http://www.stratfor.com/attendant.html. Under > Section 2, enter your membership user name and password and click "Edit > Account Information". Next, change or remove your e-mail address from your > account membership information and click "Send Info" to update your > membership profile. > > ADVERTISE: > For information on advertising in the GIU or any > section of the STRATFOR website, please email us > at [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ==================================================== > (c) 2001 Strategic Forecasting LLC. All rights reserved. > > > ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9WB2D Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
