____________________________________
From: r...@tristatestormwatch.com
To: asburyst...@aol.com
Sent: 1/11/2011 10:45:11 P.M. Eastern Standard Time
Subj: Storm Update - January 11th - 10pm
Approaching StormRAIN AND SLEET ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHORTLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.....HEAVIEST ON THE COAST, LESS
SNOW FURTHER WEST
Membership Feedback
JANUARY 11TH - 9:30PM
What is with the rain?!?!?!?!?
Residents within 10 miles of the ocean are asking that question this
hour....the weakening storm over the Ohio Valley has caused enough of an east
wind to nudge the temperatures above freezing. In Neptune, we peaked at
34.5 degrees at 9:00 p.m. and are now slowly falling back. Winds along the
coast are shifting to the north as the coastal low takes over. Rain or
mixed precipitation will change to snow shortly and accumulations will begin
before midnight.
Now, with the rain, it is unlikely that coastal sections are going to see
a foot of snow. So, the additional precipitation along the coast versus
inland will be offset by the rain making accumulations a more general 4 to 8
inches, with some areas near 10 inches across most of NJ except the south
coast where precipitation will be ending sooner.
The downside of the rain will be that the cold weather that follows the
storm will mean the snowpack is going to become a frozen mass which will be
harder to move or melt.
JANUARY 11TH - 3PM
There has been a bit of an eastward shift with track of the surface low
tonight which is going to result in two things:
1) The chances of mixed precipitation along the immediate coast have
been reduced....any probably eliminated for coastal Monmouth and northern
coastal Ocean Counties
2) Very sharp east to west gradient with snowfall amounts across the
state.
This is a very dynamic and rapidly strengthening system. There will be a
lot of banding with the snow and where these bands set up tonight will
determine who gets the most snow. The guidance has tightened the gradient of
snowfall so the difference between western NJ and eastern NJ will be more
pronounced then earlier thought with coastal sections likely receiving
double the amount of snow that is received in communities closer to the
Delaware River. Also, with such a tight gradient, subtle shifts of 25 miles
in
the forecast track will have significant implications over the forecast
area.
Start times:
Southern NJ: around sunset
I-195 corridor (including Neptune): 7pm to 8pm
Northern NJ: 8pm to 10pm
Snowfall accumulations:
8 to 12 inches for northeastern Ocean County, eastern Monmouth County
(including Neptune), NYC and the immediate suburbs of NJ.
6 to 10 inches of snow are expected from western Ocean County northward
through Middlesex County and much of the eastern half on NJ.
4 to 8 inches for the western half of NJ and southern NJ from southern
Ocean County southward except closer to 4 to 6 inches for communities very cl
ose to the Delaware River and in extreme southeastern NJ.
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Tri-State Storm Watch 1234 Any Street Shark River Hills NJ USA
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Steve Herman, Asbury Tower, 1701 Ocean Ave
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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