Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2014-05-10 Thread E willbefull
I've created a simulation framework called simbit to simulate the selfish mining attack, though it is general enough to simulate any p2p network. I even put together a rough simulation of MinCen. The goal is to be fun/easy to rapidly prototype protocols and strategies, and visualize them. It's writ

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-15 Thread Peter Todd
On Thu, Nov 07, 2013 at 11:28:52AM -0700, Daniel Lidstrom wrote: > Hey Peter, something seems wrong with your above analysis: I think a miner > would withhold his block not because it leads to a greater probability of > winning the next one, but because it increases his expected revenue. > > Suppo

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-08 Thread Gregory Maxwell
On Fri, Nov 8, 2013 at 11:49 AM, Andreas M. Antonopoulos wrote: > Nicholas Weaver is reporting that pools have already started delaying > blocks, something that hints at Selfish Mining, since Nov. 3rd. > https://medium.com/something-like-falling/d321a2ef9317 > > He dismisses other reasons for dela

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-08 Thread Andreas M. Antonopoulos
Nicholas Weaver is reporting that pools have already started delaying blocks, something that hints at Selfish Mining, since Nov. 3rd. https://medium.com/something-like-falling/d321a2ef9317 He dismisses other reasons for delayed block propagation. Any ideas on whether pools are already mucking aro

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-07 Thread Daniel Lidstrom
Hey Peter, something seems wrong with your above analysis: I think a miner would withhold his block not because it leads to a greater probability of winning the next one, but because it increases his expected revenue. Suppose a cabal with fraction q of the total hashing power is n blocks ahead on

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-07 Thread Mike Hearn
Once the ASIC race calms down because everyone has one, has more or less optimal power supplies, process improvements aren't easily reachable anymore etc then I'd expect people to dissipate from the large pools because eliminating their fees will become the next lowest hanging fruit to squeeze out

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-07 Thread Peter Todd
On Thu, Nov 07, 2013 at 02:56:56PM +1000, Gavin Andresen wrote: > > P.S: If any large pools want to try this stuff out, give me a shout. You > > have my PGP key - confidentiality assured. > > > > If I find out one of the large pools decides to run this 'experiment' on > the main network, I will ma

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-07 Thread Peter Todd
On Wed, Nov 06, 2013 at 10:59:28PM -0600, Kyle Jerviss wrote: > Each block that you solve has a reward. In practice, some blocks > will be orphaned, so the expected reward is slightly less than the > nominal reward. Each second that you delay publishing a block, the > expected reward drops somewh

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-07 Thread Jannes Faber
I wonder if you need to take into consideration the fact that there might be another "bad" pool (in the 1-Q part of the network) running the same strategy and also holding on to two blocks of their own? Once they find their third block before you do, then your 2 blocks lead is gone instantly. --

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Kyle Jerviss
What I want is configurable 1/10/100 millisecond ticks, and accurate flow of information. It doesn't seem necessary to really emulate the whole protocol, nor to be overly concerned with the content of messages, nor to simulate every little housekeeping step or network message. I'm not lookin

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Kyle Jerviss
Each block that you solve has a reward. In practice, some blocks will be orphaned, so the expected reward is slightly less than the nominal reward. Each second that you delay publishing a block, the expected reward drops somewhat. On an infinite timeline, the total reward approaches the expe

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Gavin Andresen
> P.S: If any large pools want to try this stuff out, give me a shout. You > have my PGP key - confidentiality assured. > If I find out one of the large pools decides to run this 'experiment' on the main network, I will make it my mission to tell people to switch to a more responsible pool. And i

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Peter Todd
On Wed, Nov 06, 2013 at 10:15:40PM -0600, Kyle Jerviss wrote: > You are ignoring the gambler's ruin. We do not operate on an > infinite timeline. If you find a big pool willing to try this, > please give me enough advance warning to get my popcorn ready. Gamblers ruin has nothing to do with it.

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Kyle Jerviss
You are ignoring the gambler's ruin. We do not operate on an infinite timeline. If you find a big pool willing to try this, please give me enough advance warning to get my popcorn ready. Peter Todd wrote: On Wed, Nov 06, 2013 at 01:06:47PM -0500, Christophe Biocca wrote: I might try building

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Peter Todd
On Wed, Nov 06, 2013 at 01:06:47PM -0500, Christophe Biocca wrote: > I might try building this sometime soon. I think it may also serve an > educational purpose when trying to understand the whole network's behaviour. > > What level of accuracy are we looking for though? Obviously we need to > ful

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Jouke Hofman
bounty++ On 06-11-13 06:33, kjj wrote: > One of the things that really gets me going is when someone devises a > model, tests it against itself, and then pretends that they've learned > something about the real world. > > Naturally, the Selfish Mining paper is exactly this sort of nonsense. >

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Melvin Carvalho
On 6 November 2013 06:33, kjj wrote: > One of the things that really gets me going is when someone devises a > model, tests it against itself, and then pretends that they've learned > something about the real world. > > Naturally, the Selfish Mining paper is exactly this sort of nonsense. > Their

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Christophe Biocca
I might try building this sometime soon. I think it may also serve an educational purpose when trying to understand the whole network's behaviour. What level of accuracy are we looking for though? Obviously we need to fully emulate the steps of the network protocol, and we need to be able to speci

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Jeff Garzik
I will contribute 1 BTC to this bounty, under same terms and expiration. -- November Webinars for C, C++, Fortran Developers Accelerate application performance with scalable programming models. Explore techniques for thread

Re: [Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-06 Thread Frank F
The problem with academics is that they don't have to worry about the real world. They get paid to publish things, not to be helpful to society. On Tue, Nov 5, 2013 at 11:33 PM, kjj wrote: > One of the things that really gets me going is when someone devises a > model, tests it against itself,

[Bitcoin-development] we can all relax now

2013-11-05 Thread kjj
One of the things that really gets me going is when someone devises a model, tests it against itself, and then pretends that they've learned something about the real world. Naturally, the Selfish Mining paper is exactly this sort of nonsense. Their model is one with no latency, and one where t