http://www.cosmiverse.com/news/science/1102/science11150203.html

About one in four cohabiting women say they don't expect to marry the man
they're living with, according to a new study published in the current
(November 2002) issue of the "Journal of Family Issues."

"For many couples, cohabitation is not a steppingstone to marriage, the
modern equivalent of a formal engagement, or part of some natural
progression of commitment in a relationship," said University of Michigan
sociologist Pamela J. Smock, co-author of an article titled "First Comes
Cohabitation and Then Comes Marriage?" with Bowling Green State University
researcher Wendy Manning.

More unmarried couples than ever before are living together, noted Smock,
associate director of the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR), the
world's largest academic survey and research organization. The latest U.S.
Census Bureau survey establishes the number of such households at 4.7
million in 2000.

But according to Manning and Smock, fewer of today's cohabiting unions are
resulting in marriage. In the 1990s, they point out, only about one-third of
cohabiting couples married within three years, compared to about 60 percent
in the 1970s. "For many couples, living together has become a viable
alternative to either marriage or living alone," Smock said.

The current study, showing that a sizeable proportion of minority women do
not expect to marry the man they're living with, is based on an analysis of
the latest available data from the National Study of Family Growth, a
federally funded survey of a nationally representative sample of more than
10,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44.

At the time that they were surveyed, 772 of the women reported that they
were cohabiting. Their average age was 26, with 35 percent reporting that
they had been married before their current union began. The average age of
their partners was 29.

"Do you expect to marry your current boyfriend?" the women were asked. Smock
and Manning analyzed their responses to see how a variety of factors,
including race, ethnicity and education, as well as their partner's income
and education, were related to the women's marriage expectations.

They found that older women were less likely to say they expected to marry
than younger women, and that women who had been married or cohabited before
were less likely than others to expect that their current union would lead
to marriage. They also found that Black women were less likely than white
women to say they expected to marry their live-in partners. Women whose
partners had a high level of education and income were more likely to expect
to marry than women living with less affluent and educated men, the
researchers found.

With funding from the National Institute of Child Health and Development,
Manning and Smock are now conducting in-depth personal interviews with
couples, to "unpack" what cohabitation means for today's younger cohabiting
couples.

"We know from past survey research that when both partners are asked about
their plans to marry, about 25 percent give different answers," Smock said.
"We also know that women are more likely than men to say that they expect to
marry the person they're living with," Smock said. "But as we began to talk
with young adults in some depth about their cohabiting relationships, we
realized that for many of them, cohabitation was not even a conscious
decision, let alone part of a plan leading to marriage. Very often, both men
and women seemed to regard moving in together as simply a situational
response to economic and other stress."

With the recent emergence of federal and state policies designed to
encourage marriage, particularly among low-income couples with children,
Manning and Smock believe it's more important than ever to understand why
cohabiting unions begin and end, and how young adults who live together
perceive and experience their roles as partners and parents.

"Our current results suggest that male disadvantage deters marriage plans,"
Smock and Manning noted in their article "and to the extent that Black males
are disproportionately disadvantaged, cohabitation may lead to marriage less
often among Blacks than among ethnic groups with more advantaged males."

That finding, according to Smock, suggests that unless the government finds
ways to improve the status of less educated and advantaged men, policies to
increase the marriage rate among low-income and minority people will
probably not be successful.


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