A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, that used Iraqi interviewers to conduct over 3000 interviews has come up with significantly more negative results than earlier polls. The poll was taken in late March/early April.
The results are given at http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/04/28/iraq.poll/index.html The systematic appear to be fairly decent <quote> Iraqi interviewers conducted face-to-face surveys with 3,444 adults in Arabic and Kurdish in respondents' homes. The poll was the first since the war to cover urban and rural areas throughout Iraq, representing about 93 percent of the population. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. <end quote> Some results are 1) An increasing negative view of the war. <quote> Thirty-three percent of those polled said the war had done more good than harm, while 46 percent said it had done more harm than good. Forty-two percent said Iraq was better off because of the war, while 39 percent said it was worse off. Given the sampling error, those figures indicated a dead heat. But asked, "Thinking about any hardships you might have suffered since the U.S.-Britain invasion, do you personally think that ousting Saddam Hussein was worth it or not?" Sixty-one percent said it was worth it. Twenty-eight percent said it was not, while 9 percent said they were not sure. <end quote> Getting rid of Saddam got a more positive response than the other two questions, indicating how unpopular he was. But, with over half saying the war did more harm than good, we are starting to see some significant problems. 2) The view of US forces is going downhill <quote> Nearly half -- 47 percent -- said they believed attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq could not be justified, while 52 percent said those attacks could be justified some or all of the time. Asked about when they wanted U.S. and British forces to leave, 57 percent chose immediately, as in the next few months, the poll said; 36 percent said troops should stay longer. Twenty-nine percent said troops had conducted themselves very badly, while another 29 percent said fairly badly; 24 percent chose fairly well, and 10 percent said troops had acted very well. Seventy-one percent surveyed said they saw troops mostly as occupiers, while 19 percent said they viewed them as liberators. Asked how they viewed troops at the time of the invasion a year ago, the respondents were split, with 43 percent saying they saw the coalition forces as occupiers and another 43 percent saying they considered them liberators at the time <end quote> The difference in this survey and the one done a few weeks earlier are probably related to 1) Slightly different questions being asked. 2) Systematic problems in getting accurate responses. and not due to a massive two week shift. It wasn't due to the uptick in violence because that happened just after the poll was finished. The folks involved with the poll are not a fly-by-night operation. I think that serious weight should be given to this poll...especially when they claim they have the best representation of the entire population of any poll. As I said before, it is reasonable to assume that recent events has further eroded the position of the coalition. If a political solution cannot be found for the two standoffs, and we have to use more force, the only logical conclusion is that our position will deteriorate further. The best case scenario that I can think of is that June 30th transfer of pseudo-soveriegity will be accepted at some level, and the deterioration will practically halt. The reasonable worst case scenario is that things will continue to fall apart, and the anti-US factions will grow in power and influence. Violence will increase, and we will be faced with rock wielding kids daring us to kill them and make them maryters. By the time the elections come, the most anti-US authortarians will be elected, and there will be an Islamic state that makes Iran look moderate. Not because the people really want that, but because we have inadvertantly set up the conditions where anti-US == good. I hope that doesn't happen, and things can still work out far better than that. But, this recent poll is bad news. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
