MK: I don't understand why YOU wouldn't double at 99%? Can you explain this?
If the oppenent will still take at 100% then why risk losing 2 points 1% of the time? I thought I answered your question about win rates previously. A bot that always doubles, I'd expect to lose 0.3 ppg. It's hard to search back on my phone app, so maybe that's incorrect.) A bot that doubles immediately it's ahead, I'd expect to lose about half that. Those values assume the bot plays as well as gnubg for the remainder of the game. If the opponent will make further cube errors, then it should be a little bit more. ________________________________ From: MK <playbg-...@yahoo.com> Sent: Wednesday, April 3, 2024 10:29:11 pm To: Ian Shaw <ian.s...@riverauto.co.uk>; GnuBg Bug <bug-gnubg@gnu.org> Subject: Re: Interesting question/experiment about value of cube ownership On 4/2/2024 7:08 AM, Ian Shaw wrote: > A cube strategy against a bot that never passes: Not never but we loosely say that since it takes at GWC > 0, i.e. even at 0.0001% > only double when (a) you are 100% to win I don't understand why you wouldn't double at 99%? Can you explain this? > (b) it's the last roll of the game and you have an advantage. Yes, this is very bad for the mutant and already happens now. > So the take point is 16.7%. Gammons complicate it, but I'm > sure you get the idea. If you can clearly define your strategy, I would be glad to create a script to run the experiment to see what will happen. BTW: you are still avoiding the issue of how much the mutant will win compared to what it would be expected to win based on its total "cube error rate". What win rate would you say a mutant that takes at GWC > 0.0001 even on the last roll, (which must be the biggest possible cube error), will achieve? Any guesses by anyone..? MK
