ntpd -s doesn't work with constraints when the date is too far off.
At least that's my current hypothesis.

Example from latest octeon snap:

octeon:~$ doas date 201409112020
Thu Sep 11 20:20:00 CEST 2014
octeon:~$ doas ntpd -v -d -s
ntp engine ready
constraint request to 2a00:1450:4013:c00::69
constraint request to 216.58.211.100
tls failed: 2a00:1450:4013:c00::69: connect
no constraint reply from 2a00:1450:4013:c00::69 received in time, next
query 900s
tls failed: 216.58.211.100: connect failed: error:14090086:SSL
routines:SSL3_GET_SERVER_CERTIFICATE:certificate verify failed
no constraint reply from 216.58.211.100 received in time, next query
900s
no reply received in time, skipping initial time setting
^Cntp engine exiting
Terminating
octeon:~$ doas vi /etc/ntpd.conf  # <------ comment constraints line.
octeon:~$ doas ntpd -v -d -s
ntp engine ready
reply from 46.165.212.205: offset 31536038.233497 delay 0.033760, next
query 8s 
set local clock to Fri Sep 11 20:22:23 CEST 2015 (offset
31536038.233497s)
reply from 78.47.254.155: offset 15768019.117504 delay 31536038.275234,
next query 8s 
reply from 81.88.24.155: offset 15768019.106225 delay 31536038.277960,
next query 7s 
reply from 85.10.246.234: offset 15768019.118702 delay 31536038.277447,
next query 6s 
reply from 85.10.246.234: offset 0.002484 delay 0.039208, next query 6s 
reply from 81.88.24.155: offset -0.010518 delay 0.041345, next query 6s 
reply from 46.165.212.205: offset -0.000368 delay 0.032194, next query
8s 
reply from 78.47.254.155: offset 0.002271 delay 0.039435, next query 8s 
reply from 85.10.246.234: offset 0.002595 delay 0.039722, next query 9s 
reply from 81.88.24.155: offset -0.009674 delay 0.041825, next query 9s 
^Cntp engine exiting
octeon:~$ doas vi /etc/ntpd.conf # <- enable constraints, works like magic
octeon:~$ doas ntpd -v -d -s      
ntp engine ready
constraint request to 2a00:1450:4007:806::1012
constraint request to 216.58.211.100
tls failed: 2a00:1450:4007:806::1012: connect
no constraint reply from 2a00:1450:4007:806::1012 received in time, next
query 900s
constraint reply from 216.58.211.100: offset -1.009538
reply from 87.230.95.114: offset -0.000038 delay 0.033070, next query 8s 
set local clock to Fri Sep 11 20:30:23 CEST 2015 (offset -0.000038s)
reply from 129.70.132.34: offset 0.002208 delay 0.041274, next query 7s 
reply from 129.250.35.250: offset -0.003325 delay 0.040867, next query
6s 
reply from 5.100.133.221: offset 0.021947 delay 0.046111, next query 7s 
reply from 129.250.35.250: offset -0.002102 delay 0.035490, next query
6s 
reply from 129.70.132.34: offset 0.003127 delay 0.040334, next query 5s 
reply from 5.100.133.221: offset 0.022393 delay 0.046518, next query 5s 
reply from 87.230.95.114: offset -0.001053 delay 0.031630, next query 8s 
reply from 129.250.35.250: offset -0.000493 delay 0.035583, next query
6s 
reply from 129.70.132.34: offset 0.003118 delay 0.040750, next query 9s 
reply from 5.100.133.221: offset 0.022552 delay 0.045970, next query 9s 
^Cntp engine exiting
Terminating

I'm not singling out octeon, it's just very noticeable there.

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