http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/region/10321603.html
Reform unlikely in Iran
By Mohammad Akef Jamal, Special to Gulf News
Published: June 10, 2009, 23:17
With just a day to go before the presidential elections in Iran, tension
is high in the region and internationally as four candidates prepare to contest.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative, and Mir Hussain
Mousavi, a moderate, are the two leading candidates. Neither of the remaining
pair - another moderate in Mahdi Karroubi, and conservative former head of the
Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezai - have gained much momentum.
The four candidates are a product of a political system based on the
principle of vilayat-e-faqih (guardianship of Islamic jurists), a religious
model of government.
Reforms referred to in the Iranian election campaigns have included
topics such as the rights of non-Persian ethnic groups, women's rights, human
rights, the freedom to establish political parties, freedom of the press, civil
rights organisations, the economic situation in the country, relations with
neighbouring countries and international relations.
The two reformist candidates have touched upon issues related to the
rights of non-Persian ethnic groups, which make up 58 per cent of the Iranian
population. The main ethno-linguistic minority groups in Iran are the Azeris,
Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis, Turkmen, Armenians, Assyrians, Jews and Georgians.
These candidates have promised not to marginalise these groups and went
one step further by promising them Cabinet posts.
However, people have become used to hearing such promises repeated every
four years during election campaigns in Iran.
The conservatives, on the other hand, do not want to depart from the
tenets of the revolution. Over history, revolutions all around the world have
followed the same path: leaders stir up the masses, new and non-negotiable
principals are embraced, laws are abolished and norms are changed.
Such revolutions were witnessed during the last century in Egypt, Iraq,
Syria, Cuba and, of course, Iran - as well as in several other countries around
the globe.
Among all the revolutions that have taken place in the Middle East in
recent history, the Iranian revolution remains the only one whose leaders
retain power today.
The stirring speeches of the early days of the Iranian revolution gave
way with the arrival of Ayatollah Khomeini in Tehran after years of living in
exile and leading the opposition against the Shah of Iran. From 1979, the
Ayatollah focused on trying to export the revolution to other countries, based
on animosity towards the US and Israel. These attempts have failed.
Neighbouring countries took exception to Iran's expansionist policies,
leading to an eight-year war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988. This curbed some of
Iran's ambitions in the region.
Gradually, the Iranian expansionist project was scaled back as its
politicians saw that it was futile to continue along this path without the
appropriate tools.
The long war against Iraq and the political stagnation that followed led
to the accession to power of former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami in 1997.
Although Khatami belonged to the traditional religious establishment, he
had an open mind. He believed in interacting with other countries and the
dialogue among civilisations. In his speeches, Khatami adopted reformist ideas
without contradicting Islamic teachings.
Under his rule, Iran enjoyed stable regional relations and a rich
dialogue began within the country's religious establishment.
However, the reforms initiated by Khatami were badly received by the
conservative ruling elite.
The narrow sliver of freedom that shone through Khatami's administration
became a source of anxiety and concern for the establishment.
After two years in office, Khatami was obliged to toe the line and
abandon the social, cultural and humanitarian reforms he had initiated.
Khatami's push for reform failed, not because it was doomed from the
start, but because it was conducted on too small a scale. As a result, it could
not stand up to the strength of the establishment.
Hence, it is unfair to say that Khatami's reforms did not succeed because
the Iranian people rejected them.
The conservatives who control Iran saw the toppling of the former Iraqi
government through the US invasion of 2003 as an opportunity to renew the
revolutionary export project.
Since then, Iraq has become Iran's playground to an extent that Iranian
conservatives had never dreamed of.
Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, has restored the tradition of making fiery
revolutionary speeches, while defying the world in pursuing a nuclear
capability that would bolster Iran's power and influence.
Under the status quo, the chances of any of the presidential candidates
renewing Khatami's reforms are slim - clashing with the establishment is simply
not on any of their agendas.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
