-Caveat Lector-

8/6/01
                TROUBLE IN THE HOLY LAND
                'Moderate' Saudis
                now talking war
                Ambassador says taking on
                Israel
                must not be ruled out



                (C) 2001 WorldNetDaily.com

                A top Saudi Arabian official says
                "moderate" Arab states Egypt and
                Saudi Arabia should not rule out war
                with Israel.

                In a signed article in the London daily
                Al-Hayat and translated today by the
                Middle East Media Research Institute,
                Ghazi Al-Quseibi, the Saudi
                ambassador to the United Kingdom,
                says Arab states need to overcome
                their fear of a war with
                technologically superior Israel – a
                war, he says, whose result is not
                inevitable if the Jewish state is forced
                to fight on two fronts.

                While many Arab states – including
                Iraq, Yemen, Sudan and Syria – have
                called for war with Israel since the
                outbreak of the Arab uprising led by
                the Palestinian Authority, this article
                is the first hint of a shift in thinking
                by the wealthy oil state with close ties
                to the West.

                In the article, titled "To Consider
                What We Dare Not Consider," Al
                Quseibi writes: "Richard Nixon writes
                in his memoirs, and it is confirmed in
                the memoirs of Kissinger, that during
                the Vietnam War he wanted to give
                his enemies the impression that he
                was a 'madman,' whose reactions
                were unpredictable and who could do
                just anything. He made sure,
                throughout the entire crisis, to
                maintain this impression among his
                enemies, and in his words and deeds
                enhanced it. Before him, John Foster
                Dulles skillfully practiced what was
                known as a policy of ‘brinkmanship.’"

                "I don’t mean to analyze these two
                men or to praise their policies," Al
                Quseibi writes. "What is important is
                to understand that an enemy who can
                know for sure that the behavior of his
                rival will not stray in any way from a
                certain framework, can freely act
                against him. The situation is different
                when this certainty doesn’t exist."

                He continues: "I am sure that this
                situation exists today between Israel
                and the Arab states. On the one hand,
                the entire world is under the
                impression that Israel, regardless of
                [which party] is in government, can at
                any given moment carry out an insane
                military action capable of igniting the
                entire region. On the other hand, the
                Arab states have become trapped in a
                series of agreements, summits and
                declarations – in the cage of peace, no
                matter what. You don’t have to be a
                genius to understand that under these
                circumstances, Israel can 'carry on' as
                much as it likes. They do this
                consistently without fearing any true
                Arab reaction."

                "Why are we afraid of a
                comprehensive war with Israel?" he
                asks. "Why has the mere talk of
                comprehensive war with Israel turned
                into forbidden territory? Why do we
                believe that the thought, the mere
                thought of this option, is a dangerous
                and irresponsible act?"

                Al-Quseibi suggests it is time for
                Egypt to put aside its peace
                agreement with Israel in favor of
                protecting its national interests.

                "It is true that there will be no war
                without Egypt and it is true that there
                is a peace agreement between Egypt
                and Israel," he writes. "But since when
                have peace agreements deterred the
                outbreak of a war, when from the
                point of view of the leaders, the
                highest national interest entails the
                need for war?"

                He also hints that such considerations
                by Egyptian leadership are a reality
                today.

                "The undeniable truth is that the
                Egyptian leadership has once again
                begun to seriously consider the
                possibility of war," he writes. "In this
                framework we can understand the
                declarations of the Egyptian
                President, Husni Mubarak, regarding
                Egypt’s ability to protect the Aswan
                Dam and his declarations that what
                happened in 1967 cannot happen
                again. Furthermore, the press has
                reported that he went to Moscow on a
                specific mission to determine what
                kind of support he can garner in the
                case of the outbreak of war with
                Israel. The Egyptian president is an
                experienced leader with sensitive
                nerves. However, Israel’s actions have
                made him think the unthinkable,
                namely about what the Arab leaders
                need to do."

                Al-Quseibi writes that Israel is not
                invincible when fighting on more
                than one front.

                "Israel’s superiority is at its
                foundation a mental superiority," he
                writes. "Israel’s strong points are
                known and we have memorized
                them. However they have mortal
                points of weakness [as well] that we
                cannot ignore. First of all, Israel is
                unable to fight efficiently on more
                than one front, as was proven in the
                October 1973 War. Secondly, Israel
                cannot absorb a large number of
                casualties. This we witness with our
                own eyes every day. Thirdly, Israel is
                unable to withstand a war of attrition.
                The present Palestinian Intifada has
                already tired them out more than all
                of the previous wars with the Arabs
                put together. Taking advantage of
                these weak points, in addition to the
                element of surprise, are a guarantee
                for bringing the Israeli 'giant' down to
                size."

                The key to victory, he writes, is
                Egyptian-Syrian cooperation --
                something that has not occurred in
                Middle East politics since the 1973
                Yom Kippur war.

                "What could be better than a
                repetition of what happened in 1973?"
                he asks. "What we need is
                Egyptian-Syrian cooperation, with the
                back up of the oil states with their oil,
                and the rest of the Arab states, each
                according to its ability. Such a military
                confrontation, especially while the
                Intifada is going on, and at a time
                when the possibility of the Arab
                community within Israel to take
                action, will turn all the tables and all
                of the facts upside down."

                While falling just short of calling for
                war, Al-Quseibi's article is the clearest
                evidence of a new thinking among the
                leadership of Saudi Arabia.

                "I am not a supporter of war, but I
                warn you that entirely ruling out the
                option of war from the agenda, is the
                surest guarantee for the continuation
                of Israel’s superiority – and with it the
                arrogance, the bloodshed, and the
                rampage – forever!" he writes.


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