-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.zolatimes.com/V3.1/pageone.html <A HREF="http://www.zolatimes.com/V3.1/pageone.html">Laissez Faire City Times - Volume 3 Issue 1</A> The Laissez Faire City Times January 4, 1999 - Volume 3, Issue 1 Editor & Chief: Emile Zola ----- 1999: The Year of Surprises by Zola Already 1999 is shaping up to be even more interesting than 1998. This, of course, befits a year which many newspapers have proclaimed as the "last year of the millennium." Now I hate to disappoint them, but next year, the year 2000, is the last year of the current century--where do you think the 20 comes from in "the Twentieth Century"?--as well as the last year of the millennium. The 21st Century, and the new millennium, begins on Jan. 1, 2001, two years from now. But never mind. The world is planning to have the 21st Century birthday party less than a year hence anyway, and there is nothing anyone can do to stop the process. The revelries of the party-goers will be diminished only by the caravans headed for the hills to escape the perceived social consequences of the Y2K bug. We begin the year with the US President impeached and awaiting trial in the Senate, with the Middle East political order unraveling, with Japan still in the decade-long economic dumper, with the financial system of China deteriorating so rapidly that the bureau of statistics can't fudge the numbers fast enough, with India and Pakistan in possession of nukes as they face each other over Kashmir, with Russia gang-banged by Communists, nationalists, and kleptocrats, and with the U.S. stock market pumped full of hot air and ready to circumnavigate the globe. Then there is the euro, the renamed ECU (European Currency Unit), the new money of the European Community, with its own central bank--the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany. The national currencies of the eleven nations concerned are now just pieces of the euro, in much the same way that dimes and quarters and two-dollar bills are pieces of the dollar. Banking accounts, stock trades, and grocery shopping will all be denominated in the euro, although euro cash and coins won't be available until the Year 2002. The euro is just another fiat currency, of course, but it will give the dollar some competition. To the extent that world finance and trade comes to be denominated in the euro instead of the dollar, it will reduce the transactions demand for the dollar, and the Federal Reserve will lose some of its seigniorage. That's fine with us: the more constraints on the Fed the better. Clinton and his wife Hillary, the Vogue model, spent the last days of 1998 at the Renaissance Weekend in Hilton Head, S.C., where he spent a lot of time walking along the beach with his dog Buddy, if the pictures are to be believed. I believe them as much as I believe any other Clinton photo op. Bill and Hillary managed a midnight kiss to herald the New Year, the reports said. Meanwhile the tabloids were reporting the story behind the black eye Hillary gave Bill (the Secret Service had to restrain her, the story goes), a shiner we all clearly saw on television from the Rose Garden when Clinton made his post-impeachment appearance. Not content to only play with the dogs, Clinton announced a new crackdown on "deadbeat" parents. First he noted that due to his efforts, child support collections under his Administration had increased from $8 billion in 1992 to $14.4 billion in 1998. Of this amount, $1.1 billion came through the seizure of income tax refunds. This was made possible through a massive data base maintained by Health and Human Services. States report to HHS, who then collect or seize the tax funds, and perhaps also report the seizure to credit agencies. The next step in Clinton's Big Brother plan is to make it a federal crime to move to another state or the District of Columbia if child support is owed. (After all, putting a deadbeat parent into an adult- support prison solves the problem for sure.) The irony in all this, of course, is the new Clinton scandal de jour, which concerns the paternity of teenage Danny Williams. Danny's mother says that Clinton paid her for sex, and she passed a lie detector test to that effect. No problem here: for once Clinton paid the bill instead of shoplifting whatever appealed to him. But Danny's mother also says Danny is Clinton's son, and The Star is doing a DNA check. (It was The Star, you recall, who revealed to us Dick Morris' gourmet taste in toes.) Of course, Danny Williams and the question of his paternity has been around for some time, and the Arkansas State Police reacted to the publicity by killing Danny's dog. This is consistent with the Clinton modus operandi, which included the killing of Kathleen Willey's cat and the hammering of nails into the tire of her car. This is also the same presidential schmuck who talks about "stopping the politics of personal destruction." He wants others to stop, so that he can have the field all to himself. If Clinton turns out to be a deadbeat dad, it will be only the first of many surprises of 1999, we suspect. The puncturing of the stock balloon may be another. The chief Wall Street reaction to September's "worst financial crisis in 50 years" was to bid stock prices back up to reassure investors that "crisis" is just another name for buying opportunity. But the Financial Times calculates the fair 1998 price/earnings ratio at 17. That would bring the Dow back down to 6000 or so. More and more it appears that the stock market level represents leveraged buying. If you borrow money and buy stock, the investment works out just as long as the stock price rises by a larger annual percentage that the interest rate on the borrowing. If everyone borrows money and buys stock, then they are buying into a free lunch scheme, which is sure to go sour. The U.S. has been on a free lunch binge for some time. After-tax personal savings are negative, and America also continues to borrow massively from abroad via a current account deficit. Yet stock investors expect stocks to yield double digit returns for the next decade. How is this possible? Borrow capital from foreign fools, quit your job, and buy stock. This is the key to riches. I mean, someone else makes corporations so profitable that stock values continue to increase, right? Wrong. It seems to us more likely that corporate profits will fall in 1999. As for stocks, look out below. As the Financial Times says, "the best bet for 1999 is probably to shift assets into cash and pop it into a brand-new euro savings account." The breakdown of the international political order may bring some of 1999's biggest surprises. Clinton depleted 40 percent of the nation's inventory of Tomahawk missiles in his pre-impeachment wage-the-dog diversion in Iraq. But now we see the quid pro quo: Clinton will increase the defense budget as his pay-off to the military hierarchy for going along with this piece of stupidity. (Clinton believes there is no one he can't buy, no one he can't kill in the battle for political survival.) There will be plenty of time later to talk about the not-so-subtle sounding of the drums of unrest around the world. While making the world safe for democratic socialism, the mighty warrior Clinton is simultaneously going to save ("reform") Social Security. Once again. So he says. Now the truth is Social Security can't be saved. Demographics won't allow it. And both Democrats and Republicans know that. But they will go along with Clinton's charade--if only to keep the system intact for a few more years, and thus to postpone the crisis till after they leave office. The surprise will come when the public for once doesn't buy the official con. If he is unlucky, Clinton may survive long enough to witness the collapse of his peace agreements, the collapse of stock prices, and the collapse of Social Security. If he is lucky, he will only have to admit to being the father of Danny Williams, and his approval rating will rise to 100 percent. After all, the Clintons are already the most admired couple in America, according to a new Gallop poll. In the poll, 18 percent of 1055 adults surveyed rated Clinton their first or second most admired man. Let's see: 18/100 x 1055 = 190 people. Yup. I'm convinced alright. Those 190 people love the Clintons, and are equally clueless about the rest of the world. For them, 1999 will be truly a year of surprises. -30- from The Laissez Faire City Times, Vol 3, No 1, Jan. 4, 1999 ----- The Laissez Faire City Times is a private newspaper. Although it is published by a corporation domiciled within the sovereign domain of Laissez Faire City, it is not an "official organ" of the city or its founding trust. Just as the New York Times is unaffiliated with the city of New York, the City Times is only one of what may be several news publications located in, or domiciled at, Laissez Faire City proper. For information about LFC, please contact [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Published by Laissez Faire City Netcasting Group, Inc. Copyright 1998 - Trademark Registered with LFC Public Registrar All Rights Reserved ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. 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