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>From http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-1/101834340582787.xml
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A power that outstrips even U.S. in region
Tuesday, April 09, 2002
BY DAVID WOOD
NEWHOUSE NEWS SERVICE
WASHINGTON -- There was a time, in the tortured history of Israel and the Arab
world, when the United States was the unquestioned military superpower in the
Middle East and drew obedient, if grudging, respect from all sides.
No more.
Now Israel is the region's superpower, and where it once looked to the United States
not just for diplomatic support but for military rescue, now Israel can thumb its nose
at Washington and go its own way.
Israel can field 19 divisions of ground troops, by some counts; the United States
boasts 13 divisions worldwide and would need weeks to move any significant military
force into the region.
Israel's air force, which flies souped-up U.S. F-15 and F-16 fighters, can generate
nearly 3,000 sorties, or combat missions, per day. The United States can sustain
about 1,600 sorties a day. That kind of combat punch has given Israel
unprecedented freedom of action, not just against lightly armed Palestinian street
fighters, but against its traditional enemies of Syria and Egypt as well.
"We have created an 800-pound gorilla," said Kenneth Brower, an independent
military consultant in Washington, assessing decades of U.S. military aid to Israel.
Yesterday, the 11th day of its invasion of Palestinian territories, Israel appeared to
respond to U.S. pressure by announcing it would begin withdrawing its troops from
two of the six West Bank cities it had occupied, Qalqiliya and Tulkarem, but would
maintain a cordon around them. The Israeli defense ministry gave no indication when
it would pull out of the other four target cities, where fighting with Palestinian
guerrillas continued yesterday.
The United States has given Israel about $3 billion a year for weapons purchases
since the late 1970s, and has transferred new or used weapons and military
technology for free or at deeply discounted prices under other government programs
and commercial arrangements.
In addition, the United States has stored millions of dollars worth of ammunition,
fuel,
spare parts and even a field hospital in Israel, ostensibly for use by American forces.
The agreements under which the equipment was stored in Israel are secret. But
most analysts assume Israel has access to the storage sites.
"It's always been said there are 'tripwires' that would permit Israel to use that
stuff,"
said Shoshana Bryen, an analyst for the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs,
a think tank in Washington. "My guess is if Israel needed the stuff, they'd get it."
The increase in Israel's combat clout comes less from size than from other,
intangible factors. For instance, Israeli technicians have added digital and other
improvements to their F-16 fighters, making them even more capable than versions
used by the U.S. Air Force, Brower said.
And Israel can fly so many combat sorties per day because it has a huge pool of
seasoned combat pilots. That enables its air force to use one aircraft again and
again during a 24-hour period while exchanging fatigued pilots for fresh ones. The
United States does not maintain as many combat pilots per airplane as Israel.
Israel relies heavily on its reserve forces. There are almost 1 million Israelis under
the age of 48 liable to be recalled to duty. All have done three years' active duty, as
well as reserve training. Reserve troops are organized into units already matched up
with vehicles and weapons.
"It's one of the most efficient military forces around," said Anthony Cordesman, a
senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"Can they thumb their nose at us? Well, for a while. But they don't have the technical
or production base to sustain these capabilities without some resupply by us."
But Cordesman estimated it would take about two years of fighting before Israel
needed some outside help.
It was a much closer thing in 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on Yom
Kippur, one of the Jewish high holy days. As Egyptian tanks swept across the Sinai
Peninsula and plunged through Israeli defenses, a panicked Israeli government
pleaded with the United States for help.
Then-President Nixon quickly stationed two aircraft carriers off the Israeli coast and
put U.S. combat forces on alert. Eight days later, U.S. cargo planes began delivering
what would be more than 22,000 tons of supplies to Israel, including tanks and jet
fighters.
The deliveries tipped the military balance. Israel counter-attacked with its tank
forces,
under the leadership of then-Gen. Sharon, chasing Egyptian troops back across the
Suez Canal and reclaiming the Sinai.
Out of that experience came the U.S. pledge that Israel would never lose its
"qualitative edge" in military power to any of its Arab neighbors, and the U.S.
military
aid to Israel that backed up that pledge. U.S. military support to Egypt, which began
after Egypt and Israel signed their 1979 peace treaty, is about two-thirds of U.S. aid
to Israel.
Despite the images of violence broadcast from the Palestinian territories, very little
of
the Israeli military is being used in current operations, analysts said. Israeli
officials
declined to say how many tanks have been deployed in the current fighting, but
analysts estimated that not more than a few dozen of Israel's 4,000 main battle tanks
were on the streets.
In an all-out war where civilian casualties were not a concern, Israel "could roll up
the
West Bank in 36 hours," Bryen said.
As for igniting a wider Middle East war, most analysts said the Israelis are confident
they can handle any contingency -- at least in the short run. Syria's military forces
have atrophied badly since the collapse of the Soviet Union, its main benefactor.
Egypt is said not to have the stomach for another wider war.
In any event, "The Israelis are not depending on us to come rescue them," Brower
said. "We have to be realistic. We are the world's superpower in some respects, but
we don't have a big capability in the Middle East, and the Israelis know that. They
can count."
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