-Caveat Lector-
>From www.iwpr.net
> Seselj At The Gates
>
> Having resigned from the Serbian government and disassociated himself
> from the peace agreement, Vojislav Seselj is now poised to bid for
> power.
>
> By a journalist in Novi Sad
> (Published on July 16, 1999)
>
> The resignation of Serbia's deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj and
> the withdrawal of his ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
> from the government is subject of much speculation among what remains
> of Yugoslavia's chattering classes.
>
> Is this, political analysts wonder, a step towards the oft-predicted
> civil war in Serbia? Or is it yet another cynical ploy by Yugoslav
> President Slobodan Milosevic to retain power by presenting himself as
> the moderate alternative to Seselj?
>
> The SRS--which has the second largest political presence in the
> Serbian parliament with 75 deputies and held 15 out of 35 ministerial
> posts in government--pulled out of the ruling coalition because it
> could not accept the terms of the peace agreement ending the war in
> Kosovo.
>
> In explaining his resignation, Seselj claimed the peace accord was a
> total capitulation to NATO's demands and while he did not mention
> Milosevic by name, he made it clear that he held the President
> personally responsible.
>
> In an interview for the biggest-selling Belgrade daily Glas Javnosti,
> Seselj forecast a stormy period ahead for Serbia, saying that after
> Kosovo there will come similar temptations in Montenegro, Sandzak and
> Vojvodina. And he warned darkly that the greatest risk to Serbia would
> now come from "traitors" who would be working against the interests of
> the country with American encouragement. Seselj also predicted
> instances of food rationing and social unrest.
>
> In contrast, Milosevic has been travelling the length and breadth of
> Serbia, extolling the virtues of the peace agreement, promising
> economic rebirth and seemingly presenting himself as the one man who
> can keep Seselj's extremism at bay.
>
> A number of analysts see the apparent conflict between the two men as
> nothing more than a co-ordinated ploy designed to bolster Milosevic's
> position. However, although Seselj has in the past served Milosevic in
> this way, others believe that the radical is now positioning himself
> ready for the day when Milosevic can no longer control Serbian
> society.
>
> In the working class suburbs of the largest Serbian cities, the
> electoral bedrock of the ruling parties, the population is already on
> the verge of hunger. Moreover, the prospects are worse since,
> according to official statistics, some 500,000 workers lost their jobs
> during the war. An estimated 50 per cent of the population are now out
> of work.
>
> In these circumstances, it is difficult to see how the employment and
> reconstruction programme drawn up by the Serbian parliament can have
> much impact. If, therefore, Milosevic's promises prove hollow and
> conditions deteriorate as predicted, Seselj may well make a bid for
> power. In such a case, the threat of civil war becomes real.
>
> Some people here are already comparing the situation in Serbia today
> to the Weimar years in Germany at the end of the First World War. Like
> Germany, Serbia has been defeated militarily and humiliated, its
> economy is in tatters and it faces massive social dislocation.
>
> At the same time, like Germans in the aftermath of the First World
> War, Serbs have not understood the real causes of their defeat and are
> convinced that they have suffered an injustice which they did not
> deserve.
>
> In the absence of any objective reporting, Seselj stands to be the
> ultimate beneficiary of the frustration felt by ordinary Serbs.
> Indeed, the greater Serbia's social and political disintegration, the
> better his chances of gaining power.
>
> In this respect, his appeal does indeed resemble that of Hitler who
> managed to win over Germany's defeated and humiliated population with
> his demagogic populism. Moreover, like Hitler, Seselj could achieve
> his goals via the democratic process.
>
> In Serbia's last presidential elections in 1996, Seselj was narrowly
> defeated by Milosevic's candidate Milan Milutinovic in a poll which
> observers believe was marred by widespread fraud in the latter's
> favour. Moreover, since then, Seselj's popularity has risen among the
> electorate and he has acquired key allies in the upper echelons of the
> police and army.
>
> The author is an independent journalist from Novi Sad whose identity
> has been concealed.
>
>
>
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>
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