-Caveat Lector- http://www.ahram.org.eg/weekly/2002/613/eg5.htm
21 - 27 November 2002 Issue No. 613 Home news Current issue Previous issue Site map Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 Send a letter to the Editor Recommend this page Print-friendly Brothers in succession The outlawed Muslim Brotherhood seems likely to conduct an orderly transfer of power within its ranks.Omayma Abdel-Latif reports Click to view caption Eighty-three-year-old Ma'moun El- Hodeibi looked confident as he stood, flanked by two younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood, welcoming guests to the group's annual iftar -- which took place at a Heliopolis five-star hotel on Sunday. The traditional ritual brought together what at one point seemed to be a ceaseless flow of "brothers" and "sisters" from across the country. It also attracted a large media contingent. After all, this was the second "show of strength" staged by the outlawed group in less than two days. The first was the funeral of the group's supreme guide Mustafa Mashhour, which took place on Sunday. According to police, 50,000 people had attended. The Brotherhood estimated the turnout at somewhere between 200,000 to nearly half a million strong. Despite the large number of attendees, however, no banners were raised, and not a single slogan shouted out. Instead, only hands were raised, holding the Qur'an. In fact, the event was so orderly that there was hardly any intervention by the security forces on hand. The level of organisation that characterised both the funeral and iftar led some commentators to wonder about the "true size of the Islamist trend in comparison to other domestic political forces". The brothers' successful show of unity was not sufficent, however, to put to rest growing concerns over a possible power struggle within the ranks of the 74-year- old group. El- Hodeibi, the acting supreme guide who is favoured to lead the group, was once again under pressure to dismiss news of "a leadership crisis". He reiterated that the shift in the group's leadership would be achieved via what he described as "the most orderly transition in the history of the Muslim Brotherhood". As El-Hodeibi told members of the group during his iftar speech, "in the last few days we have been the target of a smear campaign that talked about dissension, conflicts and differences within our ranks -- but rest assured, these are illusions and wishful thinking. For what holds us together is unity. Our traditions and laws will have the ultimate authority in deciding our affairs," he said. Observers described El-Hodeibi's iftar speech as a message that was intended -- on the one hand -- to close the door to any further speculation about the new leadership, and the mechanisms of this "orderly transition", while emphasising at the same time that he was now the man at the helm. This view point was confirmed by Essam El-Eryan, secretary-general of the Doctors Syndicate, and a member of the brotherhood's Shura council. He told Al-Ahram Weekly on Monday that, "El-Hodeibi will indeed be named the group's sixth supreme guide... There are no other contenders for this post." El-Eryan explained that there was a near consensus within the ranks of Muslim Brothers that El-Hodeibi was the best man for the job. All that remained to make it official, he added, were some "procedural measures" which would take a week to ten days to finish, "depending on circumstances" -- a reference to the government ban imposed on the group's meetings. According to a Brotherhood organisational statutes issued in 1982, the supreme guide should be chosen from among the 13 members who comprise the group's Maktab Al- Irshad, or General Guidance Bureau (GGB), the body responsible for formulating policies and running the group's activities. For this procedure to take place, the GGB will have to convene within 30 days. According to one senior member, however, such a meeting is not likely to take place because of growing fears that it would raise the government's ire if held, and probably give it a pretext for more clamp downs on Brotherhood members. El-Hodeibi's appointment will come as no surprise. He has occupied the group's second most important post -- its deputy supreme guide -- since 1986. He has also served as the group's spokesman for most of that time. Views are divided, however, on how deeply the change in the top position will reflect on the group's structure as a whole. Some analysts say that no sweeping generational shifts are to be expected. El- Eryan said that there will be no changes in the membership of the GGB, most of whom are known to be El-Hodeibi loyalists. Others expect that El-Hodeibi's appointment will have to meet a tide of rising expectations from the group's younger cadres. Speculation is rife that a compromise is likely to be reached whereby the deputy supreme guide will be named from the ranks of the so-called '70s generation, with 51- year old Abdel-Moneim Abul- Futuh being named by numerous outside sources as the top candidate for the post. Brotherhood member Mukhtar Nouh believes that this view holds water. "There is already a balance of power in the GGB where almost half of its members belong to the group's young wing," Nouh said. When approached by the Weekly, Abul- Futuh refused to confirm or deny the speculation, saying that only the supreme guide should decide who his deputy will be. As a way of avoiding any talk of a schism between the group's old and young cadres, other Brotherhood sources disclosed that there is a near consensus among senior members to name two younger members to the deputy post. The names include Abul- Futuh, Mohamed Habib, Khairi El-Shater and Mohamed Ali Beshr. El-Hodeibi himself declined to discuss the issue, saying that, "it was too early to decide." Some see this decision as El- Hodeibi's first test. "El-Hodeibi will have to handle this issue delicately because there is the living example of the Al-Wasat group, which comprised some of the Brotherhood's most pragmatic and dynamic young men who rebelled against an authoritarian system that did not reflect their aspirations," Rifaat Sid- Ahmed, an expert on Islamist movements, told the Weekly. This view was shared by Diaa Rashwan of the Al- Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, who contends that the group is missing one more opportunity for change. "The Brotherhood needs to undergo structural reform to allow the younger generation -- which comprises the bulk of the rank-and-file -- to take over senior positions. The current system lacks new vision and the political creativity [necessary] to deal with current realities," he said. If Rashwan is right, then the leadership crisis would be exacerbated further by the group's internal mechanisms of succession. In response to this argument, El- Eryan said that the change should come from within. As part of the group's younger cadres, El-Eryan believes this sort of change is already taking place. El-Eryan also dismissed fears that El- Hodeibi would rule the group as a despot. "The group is not ruled by one individual," he said. "This might not be clear to most people who think that the Muslim Brotherhood is run by a few men in secrecy. Despite the government ban imposed on us, which undermines our organisational capabilities, we do have institutions that work effectively and efficiently," El-Eryan said. What remains certain, though, is that El- Hodeibi does not have an easy road ahead of him, and that his leadership abilities will be put to many tests. At the same time, major departures in the group's policies are not very likely. During his iftar speech, El- Hodeibi outlined what many thought was a future plan of action for the group. The bulk of it dealt with the group's relationship with the state in the days to come. Political reform was at the heart of any rapprochement, El-Hodeibi said, oscillating between criticism of the government and a desire to be recognised by it. El-Hodeibi held the government responsible for the "state of political stagnation that has afflicted the country for the past two decades". He mentioned emergency laws, military trials, parliamentary elections, as well as soaring rates of unemployment, as examples. He reiterated the Brotherhood's commitment to democracy and political reform. "During the past 20 years we have not moved one inch forward to develop the political system," El- Hodeibi told the gathering. "It seems that we are going backward, because during those years there were times when we have had more freedoms than we do now." El-Hodeibi made a few statements that were guaranteed to trigger the government's wrath. Referring to Mashhour's funeral, he boasted that everyone had "seen the crowds which came from across the country. [And] they say the Brotherhood is a small group", he added with irony. He also referred to "the many crises the group has been through", arguing that the brotherhood has survived systematic attempts to destroy its rank and file. "They assassinated Hassan Al-Banna, the group's founder, and thought they had destroyed the Brotherhood. During the revolution, many of us were put in prison, tortured and killed, and again everybody thought the Brotherhood had vanished. But we have become more powerful -- not only in Egypt or the Arab and Islamic world, but in Europe, the US, and even in Australia," El-Hodeibi told the gathering. It was the first time he had explicitly referred to the group's international reach, a taboo issue on which the Brotherhood has kept a low profile in fear of antagonising the state. These fiery statements, however, were soon followed by what many observers saw as reconciliatory remarks towards the government -- a style which has become something of a Hodeibi trademark. "We extend our hands to the rulers of Egypt with whom we want to maintain a transparent relationship," he said. He urged the government to "open a channel of communication with us, instead of shunning us. We are a mainstream movement, and we want a dialogue with the government, a dialogue in which neither party imposes its vision or agenda, a dialogue for the interest of the country and the people. We are a moderate movement which makes no claim to monopolise the truth, a movement which has become a political reality that can no longer be ignored," El-Hodeibi said. Related stories: The iron sheikh New man at the helm The Brotherhood's biggest challenge? 14 - 20 November 2002 Watch this space 23 - 29 November 2000 Elections 2000: Muslim Brotherhood 5 - 11 October 2000 Politics in God's name 16 - 22 November 1995 Soldiers of the shari'a 16 - 22 November 1995 © Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. 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