-Caveat Lector- http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/bw-exec/2002/sep/11/091101955.html
Today: September 11, 2002 at 20:20:12 PDT Analysis Assesses U.S. on Iraq War By MATT KELLEY ASSOCIATED PRESS WASHINGTON- A U.S. invasion would almost certainly succeed in overthrowing Saddam Hussein, but it could cause the Iraqi leader to unleash his chemical or biological weapons, according to an analysis by an influential think tank. The report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies also points out that it would take the United States months to fully prepare for an invasion. "For all its global military strength, the United States is scarcely organized for an immediate war with Iraq," Iraq expert Anthony Cordesman wrote in the report, to be formally released Thursday. President Bush plans to lay out his case for possible military action against Iraq at the United Nations Thursday. Bush and his aides say Saddam is too dangerous to leave in power for long, arguing the Iraqi leader probably has chemical and biological weapons and is seeking nuclear weapons. Iraq says it does not have any weapons of mass destruction. Most other world leaders have been cool to the idea of an attack on Iraq, saying it could destabilize the entire Middle East. Cordesman, a former intelligence analyst at the Defense Department, made some of the same arguments Bush has. Iraq probably is trying to develop biological weapons so deadly they would rival nuclear weapons in terms of casualties, he wrote, and Saddam could give such weapons to terrorists. The United States has big gaps in its knowledge of the locations of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction and the facilities to make them, Cordesman wrote. Gen. Merrill McPeak, who headed the Air Force during the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, agreed. "I have no confidence the intelligence apparatus as presently organized will present an intelligent campaign against weapons of mass destruction," McPeak said in a telephone interview last month. Current worst-case scenarios involve Iraq being able to inflict serious casualties either on U.S. forces or civilians in Israel with chemical or biological weapons, Cordesman wrote. Either scenario could prompt the United States or Israel to threaten Iraq with - or even use - nuclear weapons, he wrote. Saddam "must realize that major, highly lethal, Iraqi CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) strikes on Israeli population centers are likely to trigger a nuclear war," Cordesman wrote. U.S. forces could use their superior strength, technology, tactics and firepower to defeat Saddam. The United States should avoid getting bogged down in street fighting in cities such as Baghdad, since America is weakest at urban warfare, Cordesman wrote. "It would take a major U.S. miscalculation about the size of the forces needed to defeat Iraq or a poorly structured or overconstrained U.S. operation to allow Iraq to ride out the U.S.-led attack through even the best combination of urban and redoubt warfare," Cordesman wrote. "Furthermore, most forms of extreme Iraq escalation ... will probably end in hurting Iraq more than the attacker." -- On the Net: Center for Strategic and International Studies: http://www.csis.org/ -- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html";>Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/";>ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
