-Caveat Lector-

http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=20950

 Editorial: Serbian impasse
10 December 2002

On Sunday, Serbians once again chose to stay at home, rather than go out and vote for

a new president. Thus, as in last October, less than 50 percent of the electorate 
appear to
have turned out. Under the Serbian Constitution, the result is again declared null and 
void.

The word “appear” is important. Vojislav Kostunica, the current Yugoslav federal 
president,
has cried fraud. In both October and now again on Sunday, Kostunica’s rival, Vojislav
Seselja came a clear second. Nevertheless, the result does not count because half the
electorate needed to vote. Kostunica and his supporters believe the reason this failed 
to
happen is that the electoral rolls have been inflated with phony names or still contain
thousands of people no longer alive. Suspicions are the greater, because it was 
Slobodan
Milosevic, while he was still Yugoslav dictator, who put this threshold in the 
constitution.

Vojislav Seselja is a former Milosevic ally and of the outgoing Serbian president Milan
Milutinovic, who steps down next month. Once he loses his political office and thus
protection, Milutinovic is slated to be extradited to The Hague where he faces war 
crimes
charges. Behind Seselja, however, stands hawkish Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic, a 
bitter
rival of Kostunica.

As Yugoslav president, Kostunica’s present job will effectively disappear next year 
when the
Montenegro and Serbia, the sole remaining parts of the old Yugoslavia, go their own 
ways
in a far looser federal arrangement. Kostunica is, therefore, bidding for the Serbian
presidency as a way to preserve his power base as head of the Democratic Party of 
Serbia
(DPS) and maintain the moderate nationalist policies which have led Serbia successfully
back into the international community.

Kostunica refuses to accept the result. He has said that he will be calling on the
international community to intervene, while trying to challenge the result in the 
Serbian
courts, in particular the removal of expatriate Serbs from voting lists.

Involving outsiders in Serbia’s internal affairs may not, however, be a good idea. 
Though he
is clearly the more popular candidate, such a move could damage that support. Fraud is
certainly a possibility but Kostunica must ask himself why, when the second vote was 
billed
as a make-or-break event, he could still not muster a landslide of support that 
negated any
gerrymandering by the Serbian authorities. The harsh fact is that he could not, because
most Serb voters are fed up with voting and deeply cynical about all of their 
politicians.
Kostunica may have sold himself successfully abroad. His message has not got home half 
so
well at home, where peace has not brought employment or economic recovery.

The one international intervention that might clinch a February victory for him would 
be a
substantial international investment package, won for Serbs and Montenegrans in the
closing days of his federal presidency. Such an inducement ought to have been given
already. It may not be too late to rectify the omission. At present, Serbia is drifting
dangerously toward political rocks. If its newfound democracy is holed, the wreck could
involve not just Serbia but its neighbors as well.

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