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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

BEIJING PROMPTS INVASION FEARS

Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES

-----------------------------------------------------------

China has massed amphibious vehicles and landing craft on an
island near Taiwan as part of large-scale military exercises
that are now under way, Pentagon officials said yesterday.

At least 157 amphibious craft and vehicles were spotted
recently on Dongshan island by U.S. intelligence-gathering
aircraft. The island is located across the Taiwan Strait
from southern Taiwan.

The exercise is raising concerns among some in the Pentagon
that China is practicing for a future invasion of Taiwan or
an attack on one of Taiwan´s smaller islands near the
Chinese coast.

"We have not seen these kinds of forces there for some
time," said one intelligence official, who noted that the
numbers were three times higher than during past exercises.
The amphibious exercise is expected to be one of the largest
shore-based war games held by the Chinese military in recent
years.

Other defense officials sought to play down the exercises.
One official said the Dongshan maneuvers are "Phase 2" of
war games under way in the South China Sea.

"This is part of the spring amphibious exercise series," the
official said. "Dongshan is right across from Taiwan, but we
think these are normal [exercises]. It is not unusual for
the Chinese to put everything they have into the mix."

A third official said the equipment involved in the exercise
includes amphibious tanks, jeeps, armored vehicles and
landing craft. The maneuvers also are expected to employ
hovercraft troop transports deployed from large amphibious
ships.

Amphibious assault landings during exercises by U.S. Marine
Corps forces normally include scores of landing craft and
some water-capable tanks and armored combat vehicles. In
February 1945, for instance, when U.S. Marines assaulted the
island of Iowa Jima it took 495 ships to land 75,000 troops.

Preparations for the amphibious exercise near Taiwan come as
Chinese forces are engaged in another military exercise
farther south in the South China Sea, said officials
familiar with U.S. intelligence reports.

Activities related to both exercises were first reported by
The Washington Times on May 17. U.S. officials said the
South China Sea drills involve Chinese naval and air forces
on Hainan island and on Woody Island, a small disputed islet
claimed by both China and the Philippines.

The amphibious warfare arms on Dongshan were photographed
last week and their presence was reported to Pentagon
policy-makers.

Taiwan´s Defense Ministry said Friday that the military
drills are "routine." His statement did not provide details
on the exercises. "They are not targeted [at Taiwan] and
have nothing to do with the president´s visit abroad," the
ministry said in a statement, referring to the fact that
Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian currently is traveling in
South America.

Reports of the Chinese military exercises caused stocks to
fall and the value of the Taiwanese dollar to drop.

A Taiwanese government official said on Friday that Chinese
military exercises and missile deployments near Taiwan are
not helpful in improving ties between the two countries. "We
don´t feel military intimidation is constructive," said Tsai
Ing-wen, head of the Taipei government´s Mainland Affairs
Council, Reuters reported from Taipei. "Military exercises
and missile deployment targeting Taiwan violate the
mainland´s commitment of using peaceful means to solve the
problems across the Strait," he said.

A Pentagon report to Congress on the Taiwan Strait military
balance said an invasion of the island by China is one of
three possible forms of attack. "The PRC could launch an
invasion of Taiwan (or an offshore island), using amphibious
or other sea or air transported forces," the report said.
Other possibilities include a blockade or combined air and
missile attacks.

Adm. Dennis Blair, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific,
has said a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not likely because
China´s military lacks ships for moving troops and equipment
over water. China has fewer than 100 amphibious warfare
ships capable of carrying large numbers of troops and tanks.

Dongshan, where the current exercises are being held, was
the main site of China´s 1996 military amphibious exercises
involving ground, air and naval forces. Those maneuvers also
included missile test firings north and south of Taiwan.

The exercises and missile launches were viewed by the
Pentagon at that time as possible preparations for a
military attack on Taiwan. They came amid preparations for
elections in Taiwan and were seen as part of efforts by
Beijing to intimidate Taiwanese voters.

The United States responded with the dispatch of two
aircraft carrier battle groups to waters near Taiwan in a
show of force.

China´s military has been building up its naval forces since
the 1996 standoff that has become known as the Taiwan Strait
crisis.

Richard Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military, said
Beijing will likely use the maneuvers to showcase their new
amphibious tanks, armored personnel carriers and jeeps near
Taiwan.

"We should be very concerned about this exercise and what
the combined PLA exercises over the last two years tell us
about the accelerating capability of the People´s Liberation
Army to conduct combined arms warfare," Mr. Fisher said.

Mr. Fisher said that China´s limited amphibious warfare
capability can be used for a range of operations, from
attacking Taiwan´s small islands to conducting a security
following large-scale aerial bombing and missile attacks.

A photograph of a new Chinese armored personnel carrier
shows a combat vehicle with an outboard motor attached.
"This is why we say the Chinese are using ´60s tactics with
´50s technology," one defense official said.

Chinese military writings also have discussed using fishing
boats and other small vessels as part of an invasion force
against Taiwan.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon said yesterday that a team of four
officials would travel to China later this week to assess
how to ship the damaged EP-3E surveillance aircraft out of
Hainan island, where it has been held since the April 1
collision with a Chinese F-8 jet.




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