-Caveat Lector-

http://truthout.org/docs_03/040703H.shtml

Blair and Friends Staring Into War's Political Abyss
By Paul Daley
Sidney Morning Herald

Saturday 05 April 2003

As the Iraq war enters its third week, European leaders who supported
America's push to disarm Saddam Hussein with or without the support of the
United Nations are beginning to count a heavy political cost.

None more so than the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, who six months
ago sometimes looked close to a decade younger than his 50 years. Today,
the firm flesh around Mr Blair's cheeks and eyes has noticeably sagged,
his hair appears greyer and thinner and he is visibly wearing each of his
50 years. Sections of the British union movement, already deeply
suspicious of Mr Blair, are openly calling for Labour to remove him as
leader, over Iraq and a range of domestic policy issues.

Mr Blair is a man with the weight of the world on his shoulders. His
troops are dying in ever greater numbers alongside - and too often at the
hands of - their US counterparts. Public support for the war is drifting
the longer it proceeds. Support for Mr Blair in his own Labour Party is
becoming flimsier by the day.

Mr Blair tied his political fortunes to the Bush Administration's when he
made it clear Britain would support the forced disarmament of Iraq without
a second UN Security Council resolution.

He then survived one of the biggest parliamentary mutinies in history
after convincing waverers in his party that the war against Iraq would be
quick, relatively bloodless and Iraqi soldiers would throw down their
weapons in droves to embrace their liberators.

"If the war is quick, lasting a month or so, and we move on to sorting out
the Palestine-Israel problem then I think people will say that the Prime
Minister was right," a prominent backbench Blair supporter reportedly said
this week.

"If this war is still going on in three months' time, then I think there
will be acute concern."

But having committed 40,000 personnel to Iraq, Mr Blair is not afforded
the luxury of other European leaders like Italy's Silvio Berlusconi. A
vocal supporter of the US before the war, he may well have been spooked by
the mass anti-war protests across his country in the past fortnight.
Initially he said that the US could have overfly rights and access to NATO
bases in Italy. A fierce public backlash later prompted him to qualify
support with an assurance that no attacks on Iraq would originate in
Italy.

"We can see the negative trends not only for Mr Berlusconi himself but his
party ... But I don't think at the end of the day they will bring big
damage to the coalition Mr Berlusconi is leading," Lucio Caracciolo,
editor of the influential political periodical Limes, said.

Mr Berlusconi is trying to balance loyalty to the US with passionate
opposition to the war from Italy's Catholic majority - an opposition which
has strengthened with the Pope's anti-war position. Spain's Prime
Minister, Jose Maria Aznar, is realising just how much, in domestic
political terms, he could pay for casting himself as the third man -
alongside Mr Bush and Mr Blair - in the countdown to the war.

The most recent poll, by his state's official pollsters, showed that 91
per cent of Spanish voters were opposed to their country's support for the
war. The Aznar Government's popularity has slumped massively in recent
months.

In Portugal, which also supported US policy, the Foreign Minister was
clearly trying to distance himself from the military campaign by pointing
out that "Portugal has not declared war on Iraq".

In Germany, the economy might be flat-lining, but Chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder won moderate electoral gain and media support after his decision
to become the first European leader to openly challenge America's Iraq
policy.

Germany has allowed wounded coalition troops to be evacuated to Germany
and as the war becomes protracted, bloody and ugly, Mr Schroeder has
resisted any gloating.

Despite all the evidence of years of corruption and his prior reputation
as a policy flake, France's President Jacques Chirac's staunch anti-war
position has made it the most popular government position in France since
1938.

Mr Chirac has ignored the wave of anti-French sentiment from the US
Government and the British media which followed his decision to vote
against forced disarmament of the Iraqi regime unless weapons inspectors
were given more time. Now he has made it his duty to ensure the UN -
rather than the US - takes the lead role in administering postwar Iraq
before self-government.

And in so-called "new Europe" - that is, the countries lining up for
European Union membership - there is widespread caution even among those
nations which the US is promoting as "coalition" members.

Croatia has denounced the war as illegitimate, the Czech Republic's
previously strong support is waning and the Polish Government faces
criticism over its decision to commit a small number of elite troops.

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