-Caveat Lector-

November 28 1999 BRITAIN

Britain plans Armageddon centre as comet shield

Jonathan Leake and Mark Macaskill

NOW new Labour will save the world. Lord Sainsbury, the science minister,
plans to build an Armageddon institute in Britain to track and destroy comets
threatening the Earth.
The centre, which would probably be sited in Northern Ireland, would be
tasked with tracing the courses of hundreds of thousands of rogue rocks whose
orbits cross the Earth's, and then working out the chance of a collision. It
could thus draw up plans to save the world by destroying them or pushing them
off course with nuclear weapons.

Scientists have long realised that Earth is at risk from rocks from outer
space. Such impacts have been credited with destroying the dinosaurs 65m
years ago and with other mass extinctions. However, their warnings went
unheeded until two recent Hollywood films, Armageddon and Deep Impact, showed
Earth being ravaged by such impacts.

The publicity prompted scientists at the British National Space Centre (BNSC)
to investigate the risk, and their report is said to have startled Sainsbury
into action. It warns that the chances of such an impact are far higher than
that of a big nuclear incident and that it would have much more serious
consequences.

It points out that Britain has spent billions to reduce the theoretical risk
of a serious nuclear accident to less than one every million years. By
contrast, says the report, the Earth has been hit by meteorites several times
this century and only a relatively small amount of money is needed to detect
and destroy those that could pose a threat in future.

The observatory would cost about £500,000 to set up and a similar amount in
annual running costs, says the report. BNSC insiders say the most likely site
would be at the Armagh Observatory, part of Queen's University, Belfast,
which has considerable expertise in understanding the dynamics of the solar
system. It is understood that Sainsbury would want France, Germany and Italy
to help fund the project and supply expertise.

Sainsbury said: "I take this very seriously and have asked experts to advise
me on what contribution Britain can make. I believe an international approach
would be best."

Others say that the move is long overdue. "We are not alone in being
concerned about this problem," said Professor Mark Bailey, director of Armagh
Observatory. "America has already set up an observatory to detect
Earth-threatening rocks and meteorites, and Japan is building two dedicated
telescopes. We would work closely with both countries."

Bailey will ask the Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council for money
to set up a robotic telescope on a mountain in the Canary Islands, to be
controlled by astronomers in Armagh. It would systematically scan the skies
for meteorites, feeding data back to Armagh for analysis.

One job for the team would be to calculate exactly where on Earth a meteorite
might strike. If efforts to deflect it failed, astronomers would be able to
warn governments to evacuate regions at risk.

Among the close encounters already experienced by the Earth this century were
a huge explosion above Tunguska, in Siberia, caused by an 800-metre meteorite
detonating in the atmosphere. It flattened hundreds of square miles of forest
and would have devastated any towns if it had exploded over them.

In the 1930s two large meteorites reached the ground in Latvia and the
Amazon, causing big craters, and in 1947 a meteorite composed mainly of
nickel and iron impacted in Siberia, creating a 200ft-deep hole.

Duncan Steel, an expert in comets and meteorites, who heads the space
technology group at Salford University, said the threat from space was real.
He added: "Life has existed on Earth for 3.8 billion years, but the course of
evolution has been altered time and again by asteroid impacts. At last a
species has evolved which has the ability to save itself and ensure its
future. That species is us."

http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/99/11/28/stinwenws01031.html?999

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