-Caveat Lector-   <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">
</A> -Cui Bono?-

Computer Export Decontrol
By David Ruppe

The Clinton administration just made it easier for military
operations in countries such as China, India and Pakistan to
obtain strategically sensitive, U.S.-made high-performance
computers.

New regulations went into effect today enabling U.S. companies to
export more powerful computers to countries that pose significant
national security risks — without first having to obtain a
Commerce Department export license or notify the government.

Prior to the change, U.S. companies could export U.S.
supercomputers capable of performing up to 2 billion theoretical
operations per second, or 2,000 “MTOPS,” to military entities in
the 50 such countries of concern without obtaining an export
license.

The threshold has now been raised to 7,000 MTOPS. Because the
regulations make no distinction between them, the change applies
to exports of both desktop computers and high-speed computers
that can be linked together. These are used for a variety of
civilian purposes, from banking to weather forecasting — but also
for such military purposes as the design and testing of nuclear
weapons.

Promoting Market Share

The regulation change is a big deal for the Clinton
administration, which has battled Congress in recent years over
easing restrictions it says could cause U.S. high-performance
computer companies to lose market share.

President Clinton announced the change and other relaxed computer
restrictions at a July 1 news conference, stating the relaxed
controls would “strengthen America’s high-tech competitiveness.”

Congress was notified of the change July 23. The law requires six
months for the regulation changes to take effect.

A separate regulation change raised the licensing threshold for
computer exports to non-military entities in the Tier 3 from
7,000 MTOPS to 12,300 MTOPS effective Aug. 3.

What of National Security?

In his statement, Clinton asserted that the regulation changes
would not harm national security. The decontrols would occur
“while maintaining controls that are needed to maintain our
national security,” he said.

Critics disagree.

Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control, has noted that the 85 prospective computer exports
rejected in the Commerce Department licensing process in 1998
might not have been under the new regulations.

“If the threshold is increased as the Administration proposes, we
can expect hundreds of American high-performance computers to
wind up in foreign programs to build weapons of mass
destruction,” he told a congressional committee in October.

Indeed, a 1998 Department of Energy study found that countries
like China, India and Pakistan could use 4,000 MTOPS computers to
improve their nuclear weapons designs.

Where’s the Proof?

Critics also charge the administration has not produced any
analysis that backs Clinton’s assertion that national security
will not be harmed by the relaxed controls.

A November report released by Congress’s non-partisan watchdog
organization, the General Accounting Office, said the White House
failed in a July 1999 report to analyze the impact foreign
military use of U.S. computers would have on U.S. national
security.

“Our military experts in the government have not been consulted
about the threat, have not evaluated the technological and
military intentions of countries such as China, and have not been
called on to propose controls that might protect America’s
strategic interests,” Stephen Bryen, former head of the
Pentagon’s technology control agency, told the committee in
October.

What Competition?

The administration’s claims about international competition for
high-performance computer sales also has come under fire.v The
November GAO study concluded the administration overstated the
availability of high-performance computers from non-U.S. sources.

“The study found that U.S. companies and their international
business partners overwhelmingly dominate the international
market for most high-performance computers.”



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