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>From http://www.guardian.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4279609,00.html
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The coming Arab crash
If the Saudi and other pro-western regimes are lined up against Bin
Laden, they will fall
Said Aburish
Thursday October 18, 2001
The Guardian
The west's most important friends in the Arab Middle East - Fahd of
Saudi Arabia, Abdullah of Jordan, Mubarak of Egypt and the PLO's
Yasser Arafat - are probably the world's most vulnerable political
quartet. It is likely that endemic problems and the Islamic
fundamentalist tide gripping their countries will bring an end to
their regimes within the next five years.
Though Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority have
many problems in common, the likelihood is that Saudi Arabia will be
the Middle East's next trouble spot among the pro-western countries.
This is because King Fahd, 79, is ailing and his death is likely to
produce several contenders for the kingship at a time of mounting
economic problems and growing Islamic opposition.
For now, all might seem outwardly quiet in Saudi Arabia. But a closer look reveals
serious problems. Since Fahd bin Abdel Aziz, fifth king of modern Saudi Arabia,
succeeded to the throne in 1982, the economy has shrunk dr
astically. Even by historical standards corruption is completely out of control. With
oil income down to $40bn, most of the country's people are suffering. In 1993, annual
per capita income was $5,000, barely one third of
what it was in the early 1980s. By some estimates, it has since fallen still further.
And politically, all this has aided Islamic fundamentalism, which has grown at an
alarming rate because it is the only popular movemen
t which the government cannot outlaw. Widespread anti-western feeling means there is a
danger of internal unrest and more violence against western interests.
Corruption and the suffering of the average Saudi provide a fertile background for the
emergence of a popular Islamic opposition and the coming of age of a generation of
educated Saudis who reject the absolute ways of the
monarchy. Fahd and his family are identified with the west. The misdeeds of the
royals, including allowing the stationing of American forces on holy Muslim soil, is
doing the west more harm than good. These elements comb
ined are driving more and more Saudis to join militant Islamic movements and reducing
the monarchy's already small popular base.
A fight over the succession could produce an alliance between Muslim fundamentalists
and the army against the royals - or some dissident royals forging an alliance with
the army or security forces against their relations.
This is a difficult time for the House of Saud to join the west against fellow
Muslims: there is no direct threat to Saudi Arabia and Bin Laden's criminal actions
appeal to many Muslims.
In Jordan, the situation is no better. Young and untried King Abdullah is in serious
trouble. More than two thirds of his country's population is Palestinian and
sympathise with any anti-American action because of America
's support for Israel. King Abdullah's open support for action against Bin Laden and
his militant supporters has done nothing but diminish his popularity. At present the
opposition to Abdullah is unorganised and no grou
ps are openly asking for his overthrow. But there is a strong and vocal Islamic
fundamentalist opposition, which at one point controlled a quarter of the seats in the
Jordanian parliament. As in Saudi Arabia, there are ve
ry few who favour supporting the west against fellow Muslims. Even those who do blame
Abdullah for maintaining the peace treaty with Israel and attempting to please the
west at the expense of local feeling.
Jordan's troubles have a regional component in them. Syria, traditionally anti-west,
has considerable influence with the Jordanians. Jordanians approve of Syria's hard
line against Israel and are full of admiration for th
e semi-socialist politics of their northern neighbour. Moreover, Saddam Hussein is
extremely popular in Jordan. Seen as a modern day Saladin who stood up to the west,
his popularity is widespread.
Overall, the anti-western feeling of the Jordanian people, be they secular or
Islamist, is extremely strong. Any Jordanian help for the west, even if strictly
diplomatic, is likely to backfire and exacerbate King Abdullah
's chronic problems. Yet, Jordan's dependence upon America's economic aid has already
forced its government to adopt this unpopular stance.
In Egypt, economic conditions are much worse than in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The
damage to tourism brought about by the September 11 disaster is likely to be severe.
Tourism is the country's major industry and top foreig
n currency earner. Moreover, lower oil tanker traffic through the Suez canal will make
the situation worse. This comes at a time when the fever of opposition to President
Mubarak is catching.
Until recently, opposition to Mubarak's army-backed regime was confined to Islamic
fundamentalism. This is no longer the case. The press reacted angrily to laws aimed at
restricting its freedom. The bourgeoisie accused Mu
barak of spending too much on foreign and regional affairs and not enough on Egypt's
internal problems. Stories about corruption and nepotism abound. The growing
impatience with Israel and the US has meant Mubarak's popul
arity is at an all time low. Egypt's economic decline - interrupted by the
cancellation of billions of dollars of debt during the Gulf war in return for an
anti-Saddam stand - has resurfaced as the country's major problem
. Egypt owes more than $30bn, its population is increasing by more than a million a
year and money sent back from workers in oil-producing countries issharply reduced as
countries need fewer guest workers. And Egypt canno
t expect a debt-cancellation bonus this time.
Meanwhile the calm surface concealing Islamist activity is deceptive - infiltration of
the army is at an all time high. Because Mubarak has failed to create a popular base
for his government, there are no political moveme
nts to oppose the Islamists. Joining the west in an alliance against fellow Muslims is
so unacceptable to Egyptians that it could well lead to upheaval and Mubarak's
eventual departure.
Arafat, the west's newest friend, confronts the same political and economic problems
as Fahd, Abdullah and Mubarak. His Islamic opposition is armed and willing to wage a
guerrilla war against both him and Israel. He has f
ailed to create a political entity acceptable to his people. Because the Oslo peace
accord and the subsidiary agreements which followed it have failed to satisfy
Palestinian aspirations, the people of the occupied territo
ries are turning to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and smaller Islamic groups. Totally opposed
to the west and disparaging of Arafat's subservient behaviour, these groups have made
no secret of their tacit approval of Bin Laden's a
ctions.
With nothing to show after years of depending on the US to play honest broker, Arafat
has never been this unpopular and his use of the secret police has already inflamed
the Palestinians. Along with press censorship, it h
as eroded his credentials. He no longer speaks for the Palestinians and the Islamists
are likely to add to his problems.
It is difficult to see what could save Arafat. The standard of living among
Palestinians is at an all time low. Unemployment is over 30% and higher among
university graduates. Arafat's inner circle has been tainted with c
orruption and nepotism. Given that the Sharon government is unlikely to be generous
enough to save Arafat, the prospects for a Palestinian civil war are growing by the
day. The unthinkable may come to pass, an Arafat-Isra
el alliance against Hamas and other Palestinian Islamic groups.
The threats to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Arafat are real. What
makes the present situation worse than ever before is America's
determination to involve Arab leaders in an alliance against fellow
Muslims. The popularity of the pro-west leaders is so thin that any
material move to hitch their fate to the anti-Bin Laden coalition
will create an irreversible march towards disaster.
© Said K Aburish is the author of The Rise, Corruption and Coming
Fall of the House of Saud (Bloomsbury)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2001
End<{{{
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