-Caveat Lector-

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Dave Hartley
http://www.Asheville-Computer.com
http://www.ioa.com/~davehart


-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Olsen
Sent: Friday, August 20, 1999 6:19 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: {Y2K} Military predicts Y2K chaos




 Associated Press, Aug 20, 1999


       U.S. military predicts much worse Y2K chaos than White House
       does

       WASHINGTON (AP) - A U.S. military report predicts widespread
       "probable" or "likely" failures in important power and water
       systems for many cities in the United States because of the
       Year 2000 technology problem, a far more dire assessment
       than anything the White House has made.

       President Bill Clinton's top Y2K adviser, John Koskinen,
       called the conclusions overly pessimistic in the study by
       navy and marine base commanders worldwide. He said the
       military is assuming major utilities will fail unless proven
       otherwise.

       The most recent version of the study, updated less than two
       weeks ago, predicted "probable" or "likely" partial failures
       in electric utilities that serve nearly 60 of roughly 400
       navy and marine facilities.

       The study predicted "likely" partial electrical failures,
       for example, in the new year at bases and offices in
       Orlando, Fla.; Gulfport, Miss.; Fort Lauderdale, Fla.; and
       nine other small- to mid-size cities.

       It also predicted "probable" partial water system failures
       in Dallas; Nashville, Tenn.; Houston; Baton Rouge, La.;
       Montgomery, Ala.; Tulsa, Okla.; and 59 other cities.

       The study forecast likely partial natural-gas failures - in
       the middle of winter - in Nashville; Albany, N.Y.; Columbus,
       Ohio; Fort Worth, Texas; Pensacola, Fla.; and Charleston,
       S.C.

       The military report contrasts sharply with predictions from
       the White House, which said in its own report just weeks ago
       that national electrical failures are "highly unlikely." The
       White House report also said disruptions in water service
       from the date rollover were "increasingly unlikely."

       Koskinen, who vouched for the authenticity of the navy
       report, noted nevertheless that all its worst-case
       predictions for failures were marked as "interim" or
       "partial" assessments.

       "It's not nearly as interesting as the world coming to an
       end," said Koskinen.

       "The way they worked was, until you have information for
       contingency planning purposes, you ought to assume there was
       a problem."

       The Year 2000 problem may occur because some computer
       programs, especially older ones, might fail when the date
       changes to 2000. Because the programs were written to
       recognize only the last two digits of a year, such programs
       could read the digits "00" as 1900, potentially causing
       problems with financial transactions, airline schedules and
       electrical grids.

       The navy report was first summarized this week on an
       Internet site run by Jim Lord, a Y2K author, who said he
       obtained it "from a confidential source of the highest
       reliability and integrity."

       "The military has to work from the worst case but so do we,"
       Lord said Thursday.

       "It's reprehensible for them to know this and keep it from
       us."

       Koskinen said the navy isn't withholding information from
       anyone, noting the continually updated report was available
       until recently on a Web site maintained by the U.S. Defence
       Department.

       "The last people in the world the department is going to
       keep information from is their own people," Koskinen said.

       "In fact, the whole purpose of the exercise is to make sure
       they can provide appropriate information to servicemen on
       their bases and their families."

                        © The Canadian Press, 1999

       Copyright © 1999 Southam Inc. All rights reserved.


   .............................................
   Bob Olsen, Toronto      [EMAIL PROTECTED]
   .............................................

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