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http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=583812&thesection=news&th
esubsection=world
US propaganda war in danger as hunt for bin Laden drags on
26.12.2001
By PETER POPHAM
Osama bin Laden has disappeared from the Afghan picture, the hounds have
lost the scent and for the first time since September 11 the US propaganda
effort threatens to run out of steam.
Bin Laden endowed the War on Terrorism with pin-sharp focus. In his absence,
Afghanistan is again merely a gun-saturated morass of feuding tribesmen, a
treacherous political tangle. The man is badly missed.
There is a whiff of desperation in the air. The US is preparing to use
"thermobaric" bombs to suck the air out of Tora Bora's caves and tunnels,
then to throw hundreds of ground troops in behind them to search for clues
to where bin Laden has gone. Some of the 2000 US Marines in south
Afghanistan are already interrogating al Qaeda fighters for information
about their chief.
In Pakistan, American soldiers and CIA agents are helping the Pakistani
military track down al Qaeda guerrillas.
One reason for the growing direct US involvement in the manhunt is simmering
dissatisfaction with the performance of their Afghan and Pakistani allies.
The Afghans, it is said, are losing interest. And elements in Pakistan's
military and intelligence services are believed to be sympathetic toward al
Qaeda.
But the search for bin Laden must go on. American popular sentiment demands
it, the desire for retribution for the atrocities of September 11 cries out
for it, the ratings will plummet unless the goal is pursued vigorously and
publicly.
"I don't know where [bin Laden] is," said General Richard Myers, chairman of
America's joint chiefs of staff. "I'd rather not speculate if he is alive.
If he has left Afghanistan, fine. In the end I am confident we will find
him."
So where to look? Until last week, the Pentagon seemed confident bin Laden
was holed up in a cave near Tora Bora.
This certainty has gone now that al Qaeda - or most of them - have been
killed or flushed across the border. Despite the high-tech equipment at
America's disposal, including spy satellites and unmanned reconnaissance
planes, the quest for bin Laden remains a guessing game.
It is possible he is dead, killed by his own hand or buried under tons of
debris in a cave: one reason why US commander General Tommy Franks is
determined to explore the caves using US forces, a task that could take
months.
But if bin Laden has slipped away, the clever money is on him having
vanished into the tribal areas just the other side of those high mountains
that line the border.
These tribal Pashtun communities are in the custom of treating this border
with contempt, and he will be among people who strongly support the Taleban.
The drawback: these are villages where word of new arrivals spreads like
lightning.
However warm the welcome, it is unlikely that the $US25 million ($62
million) terrorist will be able to rest easy in the North West Frontier
Province for long.
So he might head south to the pro-Taleban Pashtun refugee communities of
Baluchistan, between the Pakistani city of Quetta and Kandahar. Here again
his welcome is likely to be warm, but he is unlikely to keep his presence a
secret.
Once these obvious havens have been exhausted, the guesswork becomes wilder.
One theory holds that he may have crossed 200km of mountainous Pakistani
territory to reach Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and the shelter of one of the
training camps used by militants fighting against India.
But there is none of the time-honoured tribal protection available in
Kashmir, and with tension between India and Pakistan close to boiling point
his presence would become a serious embarrassment for Pakistan.
Another scenario sees him doing a flit through the deserts of Baluchistan to
the Arabian Sea, where he could board a ship bound for the Philippines or
Morocco or one of half a dozen other destinations.
But he might almost equally easily be imagined, without beard and hair,
wearing coloured contact lenses and modern clothes, waiting at tables in
Soho.
- INDEPENDENT
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