-Caveat Lector-
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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: March 27, 2007 9:56:42 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: A New Planetary Ecology in 90 Years -- Adapt, Mutate, or
Join the Dinosaurs!
Warming May Create Climates, Cut Others
By AP/RANDOLPH E. SCHMID
Tuesday, Mar. 27, 2007
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1603320,00.html
Some climates may disappear from Earth entirely, not just from
their current locations, while new climates could develop if the
planet continues to warm, a study says. Such changes would endanger
some plants and animals while providing new opportunities for
others, said John W. Williams, an assistant professor of geography
at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Using global change forecasts prepared for the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, researchers led by Williams used computer
models to estimate how climates in various parts of the world would
be affected. Their findings are being published in this week's
online edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The IPCC, representing the world's leading climate scientists,
reported in February that "warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice and rising global average sea level."
Tropical regions in particular may face unexpected changes,
particularly the rain forests in the Amazon and Indonesia,
Williams' researchers concluded.
This was surprising, Williams said in a telephone interview, since
the tropics tend to have little variation in weather.
But that also means temperature changes of 3 or 4 degrees in these
regions might have more impact than a change of 5 to 8 degrees in a
region that is accustomed to regular changes.
Species living in tropical areas may be less able to adapt, he
said, adding that that is speculative and needs further study.
Areas like the Southeastern United States and the Arabian Peninsula
may also be affected, the researchers said, adding that mountain
areas such as in Peruvian and Colombian Andes and regions such as
Siberia and southern Australia face a risk of climates disappearing
altogether.
That doesn't mean these regions would have no climate at all —
rather their climate would change and the conditions currently in
these areas would not occur elsewhere on Earth.
That would pose a risk to species living in those areas, Williams
observed.
If some regions develop new climates that don't now exist, that
might provide an opportunity for species that live there, Williams
said. "But we can't make a prediction because it's outside our
current experience and outside the experience of these species."
--------------------
March 27, 2007
http://www.sciencedaily.com/
Global Warming Forecasts Creation, Loss Of Climate Zones
Science Daily — A new global warming study predicts that many
current climate zones will vanish entirely by the year 2100,
replaced by climates unknown in today's world.
Global climate models for the next century forecast the complete
disappearance of several existing climates currently found in
tropical highlands and regions near the poles, while large swaths
of the tropics and subtropics may develop new climates unlike
anything seen today. Driven by worldwide greenhouse gas emissions,
the climate modeling study uses average summer and winter
temperatures and precipitation levels to map the differences
between climate zones today and in the year 2100 and anticipates
large climate changes worldwide.
<<Climatic disaster looms for the US southwest, Mississippi basin,
and Southern states to Florida.
Note also the eco-catastrophes expected in the oil-rich Persian
Gulf states, Indonesia, and India>>
A new climate modeling study has identified regions of the world
where greenhouse gas emissions during the next century are likely
to cause the appearance of novel climates unlike anything that
exists today, shown in YELLOW in this image created March 2007,
and regions whose current climates will disappear completely by the
year 2100, shown in BLUE. Novel climates appear throughout the
tropics and subtropics, while the climates now found in tropical
mountain ranges and near the poles may vanish. The work, led by
University of Wisconsin-Madison geographer Jack Williams, suggests
that climate change is likely to have serious ecological impacts,
including increased risk of plant and animal extinction. (Credit:
Courtesy of Jack Williams: University of Wisconsin-Madison)
The work, by researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and
the University of Wyoming, appears online in the Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences during the week of March 26.
As world leaders and scientists push to develop sound strategies to
understand and cope with global changes, predictive studies like
this one reveal both the importance and difficulty of such a task.
Primary author and UW-Madison geographer Jack Williams likens
today's environmental analysts to 15th-century European mapmakers
confronted with the New World, struggling to chart unknown territory.
"We want to identify the regions of the world where climate change
will result in climates unlike any today," Williams says. "These
are the areas beyond our map."
The most severely affected parts of the world span both heavily
populated regions, including the southeastern United States,
southeastern Asia and parts of Africa, and known hotspots of
biodiversity, such as the Amazonian rainforest and African and
South American mountain ranges. The changes predicted by the new
study anticipate dramatic ecological shifts, with unknown but
probably extensive effects on large segments of the Earth's
population.
"All policy and management strategies are based on current
conditions," Williams says, adding that regions with the largest
changes are where these strategies and models are most likely to
fail. "How do you make predictions for these areas of the unknown?"
Using models that translate carbon dioxide emission levels into
climate change, Williams and his colleagues foresee the appearance
of novel climate zones on up to 39 percent of the world's land
surface area by 2100, if current rates of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gas emissions continue. Under the same conditions, the
models predict the global disappearance of up to 48 percent of
current land climates. Even if emission rates slow due to
mitigation strategies, the models predict both climate loss and
formation, each on up to 20 percent of world land area.
The underlying effect is clear, Williams says, noting, "More carbon
dioxide in the air means more risk of entirely new climates or
climates disappearing."
In general, the models show that existing climate zones will shift
toward higher latitudes and higher elevations, squeezing out the
climates at the extremes - tropical mountaintops and the poles -
and leaving room for unfamiliar climes around the equator.
"This work helps highlight the significance of changes in the
tropics," complementing the extensive attention already focused on
the Arctic, says co-author John Kutzbach, professor of atmospheric
and oceanic sciences at UW-Madison. "There has been so much
emphasis on high latitudes because the absolute temperature changes
are larger."
However, Kutzbach explains, normal seasonal fluctuations in
temperature and rainfall are smaller in the tropics, and even
"small absolute changes may be large relative to normal variability."
The patterns of change foreshadow significant impacts on ecosystems
and conservation. "There is a close correspondence between
disappearing climates and areas of biodiversity," says Williams,
which could increase risk of extinction in the affected areas.
Physical restrictions on species may also amplify the effects of
local climate changes. The more relevant question, Williams says,
becomes not just whether a given climate still exists, but "will a
species be able to keep up with its climatic zone? Most species
can't migrate around the world."
For the researchers, one of the most poignant aspects of the work
is in what it doesn't tell them - the uncertainty. At this point,
Williams says, "we don't know which bad things will happen or which
good things will happen - we just don't know. We are in for some
ecological surprises."
The work was conducted in collaboration with Stephen Jackson at the
University of Wyoming and was funded by the National Science
Foundation.
Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by
University of Wisconsin-Madison.
-------------------
Like it hot? You'll like S. Fla. in 2100
BY MARTIN MERZER
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/53588.html
So, you think South Florida summers are toasty now? Imagine
temperatures five to seven degrees higher -- and a climate unlike
any that now exists on Earth.
If global warming continues at the current pace, according to an
alarming study released Monday, it could boil away South Florida's
climate by the end of this century and replace it with conditions
that are warmer, drier and unknown in today's world.
''We see the disappearance of certain climates and the emergence of
novel climates,'' said Jack Williams, the study's lead author and a
geographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. ``And in South
Florida, you see yourself highlighted with a bulls eye.''
Along with blistering temperatures, likely consequences include:
less rain, rising sea levels and ecological changes in the
Everglades and elsewhere that are difficult to predict but could be
profound.
The study, peer-reviewed and published this week in the prestigious
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is one of the
first to predict local effects of global warming.
It found that novel -- previously unseen -- combinations of
temperatures and precipitation could prevail in 12 to 39 percent of
the world's land surface by 2100 if atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide continue increasing at current rates.
Carbon dioxide and other so-called ''greenhouse'' gases produced by
human activity are a significant cause of global warming, according
to a growing scientific consensus.
Some of the most affected areas, the study found, are in tropical
and sub-tropical regions, including South Florida.
Williams said South Florida's mean summer temperature -- the
midpoint between the daily high and low temperatures -- could rise
by five to seven degrees if the rate of greenhouse emissions
remains unchecked.
Between 1971 and 2000, the mean temperature in Miami and Fort
Lauderdale during June, July and August was about 83 degrees. Add
five to seven degrees to that and you get really mean temperatures.
''You would see a lot more days with high temperatures of 95 or
96,'' said Robert Molleda, the National Weather Service's severe
weather expert for South Florida. ``It might even hit 100 degrees.''
Winter temperatures could increase by three to five degrees, the
study found.
At the same time, South Florida could receive about 3 ½ fewer
inches of rain than now falls during the summer -- a prediction
that carries ominous implications for a region already impacted by
water-use restrictions.
''If you're a water resources planner in South Florida, you have to
start thinking about agricultural impacts and dealing with other
water availability issues,'' Williams said.
Taken together, South Florida's precise mix of temperature and
precipitation would be unique.
''That's a climate combination that we don't see anywhere on land
today,'' said Stephen Jackson, a co-author of the report and an
ecology professor at the University of Wyoming. ``That's why we
flagged South Florida.''
Even if worldwide action reduces the growth of greenhouse gases, 4
to 20 percent of the world's land could experience novel climates,
the report concluded. South Florida's temperatures still could rise
by two to five degrees in the summer and two to 3 ½ degrees in the
winter.
In producing the study, scientists employed computerized models and
other statistical procedures to translate carbon dioxide levels
into changes in a region's climate, which was defined as
temperatures and precipitation during summer and winter. They did
not factor in hurricanes or other extreme events.
The authors emphasized that long-term climatological predictions --
much like long-term forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity --
carry high degrees of uncertainty.
''These are simulations,'' Jackson said, ``but they give an idea of
what the science tells us will happen.''
Brian Soden, a leading global warming expert and an associate
professor at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine
and Atmospheric Science on Virginia Key, found value in the study
and said it seemed based on sound scientific principles.
''For South Florida, the more pressing issues are likely to be the
impacts on low-lying coastal areas,'' Soden said. ``As the sea
level rises from global warming, low-lying ecosystems like the
Everglades and other coastal wetlands will become more vulnerable
to both saltwater encroachment and storm surge.''
The report's authors said the disappearance of some climates and
the creation of others will trigger surprising and possibly
sweeping ecological changes in Florida and much of the world.
Some animal and plant species are likely to become extinct,
especially in northern areas where climates -- rather than shifting
elsewhere -- might simply disappear. In essence, those species will
have no place to run.
The effects could be somewhat different, but no less unsettling, in
South Florida and other sub-tropical and tropical regions that
develop currently unknown climates.
''These novel climates, when they arrive, could lead to very
different kinds of ecosystems than we have now,'' Jackson said,
``and it's very difficult to predict what that would look like.''
----------------
Global warming will lead to emergence of new climate zones, says study
Zipporah Koganowich
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/44563.html
NEW YORK: The prevailing climate zones and patterns may just vanish
by the year 2100 and be replaced by unknown climatic conditions, a
new study on global warming has predicted.
The climate modeling study, undertaken by researchers at the
University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Wyoming, says
several existing climates currently found in tropical highlands and
regions near the poles will totally disappear in the next 100 years
and these will be replaced by new and unknown climates. These
changes will be the results of the increasing worldwide greenhouse
gas emissions.
The researchers used average summer and winter temperatures and
precipitation levels to map the differences between the climate
zones of today and those that will prevail in 2100 and said there
would be large scale climate changes.
The details of the study are published in the journal proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences.
Jack Williams, lead author of the study, said when climate zones
disappear, the animals and plants that live in these zones are at
greater risk of extinction. He said the climates do not disappear
just regionally, but disappearing from the face of the globe and
when that happens, the species that live in these climates really
have nowhere to go as the system changes.
The study said as the warming increases -- even up by 15 degrees F
at some latitudes by the end of this century -- climate zones are
likely to shift away from the equator and toward the poles.
Williams said the climates near the poles or at the tops of
mountains then just get pushed out and it will get too hot.
The study said the most severely affected parts of the world would
cover heavily populated regions, including the southeastern United
States, southeastern Asia and parts of Africa, as well as the
hotspots of biodiversity, like the Amazonian rainforest and African
and South American mountain ranges.
The change in temperatures could be greater in the Arctic and
Antarctic because as snow and ice melt, their ability to reflect
sunlight too vanishes, paving the way for warming up.
The researchers predict appearance of new and unknown climate zones
on up to 39 per cent of the world's land surface area if the
current rates of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions
continue without any check. The models also predict the
disappearance of up to 48 per cent of current land climates.
Even in a situation where emission rates slow down due to
mitigation strategies, both climate loss and formation can happen,
each on up to 20 per cent of world land area.
Williams says the scenario is very clear -- more carbon dioxide in
the air means more risk of entirely new climates or climates
disappearing.
Co-author of the study John Kutzbach of the University of Wisconsin-
Madison said the study helps highlight the significance of changes
in the tropics. He says there has been lot of emphasis on high
latitudes because the absolute temperature changes are larger. But,
normal seasonal fluctuations in temperature and rainfall are
smaller in the tropics, and even small absolute changes may be
large relative to normal variability, he said.
The study was conducted in collaboration with Stephen Jackson at
the University of Wyoming. It was funded by the National Science
Foundation.
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