___________________________________________ What's going on in your world? Find Out. Visit Stratfor's Global Intelligence Center http://www.stratfor.com/world/default.htm ___________________________________________ TODAY ON STRATFOR.COM - RUSSIA 2000 Visit Stratfor.com today to read about what Putin's spy career means for Russia's future. Then check back Tuesday, Nov. 9, to read the third installment in our series, discussing Moscow's desire to reassert control over the country's restless regions. http://www.stratfor.com/ ___________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update November 5, 1999 Chinese Influence on the Rise in Pyongyang Summary North Korean special units were called in to quell riots in North Hamgyong province in mid-October, according to reports in South Korean and Chinese media this week. The riots came as border security in North Korea and China was being tightened, and more attention paid to the status of North Koreans crossing the border illegally. With Chinese-North Korean ties generally on the mend, the threat of increased internal instability in North Korea may lead Beijing to accelerate its assistance to - and influence in - Pyongyang. Analysis A riot broke out Oct. 11 in North Korea's North Hamgyong Province, which borders both China and Russia, according to Chinese and South Korean media reports published this week. North Korea mobilized an elite border guard unit to quash the riots, which took place near the northwestern border city of Onsong. The special unit responded with helicopters and ground forces, and followed up with a search operation to find the leaders of the riot and "outside impure elements." North Korea has long harnessed the fear of social instability to gain leverage in dealings with other nations. By playing up outsiders' paranoia that a collapsing regime may resort to any measure - including launching a suicide attack on South Korea - it wins economic humanitarian assistance while maintaining its isolation. [ http://www.stratfor.com/asia/aiuarchive/a981222.htm ] But the riot near Onsong suggests that unrest in some outlying regions of the country may be near the breaking point. This does not mean that a general uprising against Kim Jong Il's government is near, but that localized dissatisfaction with the current economic and political situation could lead to eruptions of violence, requiring military intervention. Signs of instability - especially real, not engineered, instability - could win Korea support from a wary China. The riots came amid tightened border security by both North Korea and China, designed to stem the flow of illegal North Korean citizens seeking food and medicine across the Tumen River in China. While many of the North Koreans crossing into China are reportedly seeking refugee status, both sides oppose calling them refugees out of fear that granting such status would trigger a massive increase in the number of North Koreans crossing into China. The incident in Onsong seems to be isolated, at least for now. Potential unrest appears confined to the border areas, where political and ideological exiles are often sent, and news of the outside is easier to obtain. With North Korea increasing economic and social exchanges with other nations to bolster its shrinking economy, such internal dissatisfaction could spread. As North Korea balances its financial distress with the need to remain insulated from the rest of the world, there are other signs that the regime's security may be threatened. Kim Jong Il's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, has taken a post in the Ministry of Public Security, an early step toward succeeding his father. The elder Kim's rise to power following his father Kim Il Sung's death was a slow process, marked by purges in the government ranks. Firmly establishing Kim Yong Nam as his successor could be an attempt to counter a threat against Kim Jong Il's authority. Placing his son in a position of public security, tasked with information gathering and finding dissidents, signals to both the citizens of North Korea and to potential opponents that the Kim Dynasty will continue. By emphasizing the dynastic succession implemented by his father, Kim Jong Il hopes to rekindle public affection for North Korea's leadership, which has dwindled without Kim Il Sung's charismatic presence. While the signals out of North Korea may be simply more false signs of imminent collapse, the unrest in the north and potential splits in Pyongyang suggest the precarious situation may be more than a carefully crafted diplomatic bargaining tool. A truly destabilized North Korea poses a threat not only to South Korea and the U.S. forces there, but also to China, Russia and possibly Japan. While South Korea, the United States and even to some extent Japan have accelerated contact with North Korea, it is China that has recently forged the closest ties. China has already been moving to strengthen relations with North Korea in order to regain leverage against U.S. allies in the region. While Beijing would benefit strategically from holding the leash on North Korea's belligerency, it would be threatened by an out-of-control North Korea. Real signs of North Korean disintegration could speed up moves to bring Sino-North Korean cooperation back to a level not seen in decades. China may even seek to influence or manipulate North Korea's internal politics to maintain the momentum of strengthening relations and guarantee North Korean cohesion. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________
