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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: September 20, 2007 1:18:33 PM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Dollar Bottoms; Oil to $100/Barrel; CARLYLE & Arabs Will OWN the STOCK MARKET

U.S. dollar sinks to lifetime low versus euro

Thu Sep 20, 2007 7:29pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUKN2042711620070920

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The dollar tumbled to a record low against the euro on Thursday and reached parity with the Canadian currency for the first time in 31 years on expectations of more cuts in U.S. interest rates after this week's sharp reduction.

The sell-off started in Europe and continued later in the day in New York as investors and analysts concluded lower benchmark rates in the world's largest economy will hurt the return on dollar- denominated assets, diminishing the greenback's appeal.

Against the euro, the dollar breached the key $1.40 level and almost touched $1.41 at around noon in New York. The euro zone single currency also rose above 70 pence against sterling for the first time in one and a half years.

Also on Tuesday, the Canadian dollar briefly reached parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time since 1976, supported by lofty commodity prices, a strong domestic economy and concerns about the U.S. economic slowdown.

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday slashed rates for the first time in four years by a half percentage point to 4.75 percent to shield the U.S. economy from a deepening housing slump and credit market turbulence.

"People are convinced the Fed will have to cut by more than 50 basis points," said Matthew Strauss, senior FX strategist at RBC Capital Markets, in Toronto. The dollar's sell-off "is a continuation of selling seen after the Fed's rate cut, and with the dollar index closing in on all-time lows, people are looking for reasons to target that level."

Remarks by Fed chief Ben Bernanke before a Congressional committee had limited impact.

In midafternoon trading in New York, the euro had risen to a record high of $1.4099, before surrendering some gains to trade up 0.8 percent on the day at $1.4074. The dollar was down 1.2 percent against the yen to trade at 114.56 per dollar, on track for its biggest one-day percentage decline in two weeks.

The dollar set a 15-year low against a basket of six major currencies, at 78.45, in its biggest one-day drop in more than a year. A move below 78.190 would take the dollar index to record lows.

The dollar touched a two-and-a-half-year low against the Swiss franc. Dollar/Swiss franc was last at 1.1715, after going as low as 1.1688, its lowest level since March 2005.

BERNANKE'S WARNING

Fed Chairman Bernanke warned Congress on Thursday that raising the ceiling on the size of loans government-sponsored mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy could undermine market discipline.

He also said soft home prices and mortgage rate resets mean that subprime adjustable-rate home loan delinquencies will rise further.

"It's pretty clear (Bernanke) expects more weakness in the housing sector but the fact that he says the market is self-correcting leads me to believe he expects the system to work itself out without too much help from the Fed," said Dustin Reid, senior currency strategist at ABN AMRO in Chicago.

Of the euro move, Reid said, "It's uncharted territory, and when you're in uncharted territory, it's difficult to look at every little wobble in price and try to attribute it to a specific event or fundamental."

Sterling edged higher versus the dollar after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that cutting interest rates at first sight of every problem was not the way to go. Sterling/dollar rose 0.5 percent at $2.0099.

The dollar fell 1.2 percent against the Canadian dollar and last traded around C$1.0018.

(Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson and Nick Olivari in New York)

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Gold hits 28-yr high on dlr fall, inflation fears

Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:44 PM BST
By Frank Tang and Atul Prakash

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx? type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-09-20T194414Z_01_L20119906_RTRIDST_0_MARK ETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-7.XML

NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Spot gold prices surged to a 28-year high in European trade on Thursday as the dollar sank to an all-time low against the euro and new highs in crude oil bolstered inflation concerns.

Gold rose more than 2 percent to $738.30 an ounce, its highest since January 1980, when it hit a record high of $850. By 3:09 p.m. EDT (1909 GMT), bullion was quoted at $734.50/735.30, compared with $721.10/721.90 in New York late on Wednesday.

Most-active December gold on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up $10.40 or 1.4 percent at $739.90 an ounce, dealing between $728.90 and $746.50 which marked the loftiest level since 1980.

"The market was in two minds yesterday, jumping between $722 and $726, but the euro's push through $1.40 against the dollar gave the market fresh impetus to break up again," said Tom Kendall, metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corporation in London.

Bill O'Neill, a partner in commodity consultant LOGIC Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, said that the Fed's latest rate cut reignited investor fears about inflation and extended support to gold.

U.S. crude broke above the record $84 a barrel in afternoon trading. Oil prices have been rising sharply this week on U.S. supply concerns and storm worries.

Gold is usually seen as a hedge against inflation.

"Technically speaking, we are moving through to uncharted waters if we breach $730 cleanly. And that would be very positive for gold because it does open up the upside," said David Holmes, director of metals sales at Dresdner Kleinwort.

"The scenario is quite bullish. There is still an underlying credit concern that makes gold a sensible investment," he said.

A global credit crunch stemming from the U.S. high-risk mortgage sector has left investors looking for safe parking places for their cash, magnifying bullion's safe-haven status.

"Gold's fundamentals are very strong. The rate cut by the Federal Reserve has brought more gold buyers back into the market on expectations of a weaker dollar," said Michael Widmer, director of research at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.

ETF GROWTH

Growth in bullion exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued as investors diversified their portfolios. Gold used to back StreetTRACKS Gold Shares hit a record high of 577.10 tonnes on Wednesday.

London-based ETF Securities said investment in its gold ETF had jumped 240 percent in the past seven weeks, with total assets under management exceeding $300 million. The product now holds nearly 350,000 ounces of gold, or around 11 tonnes.

"In light of the prospects for further Fed (rate) cuts and potential for further U.S. dollar weakness, the recent increases into the gold ETFs could continue," said John Reade, head of metals strategy at UBS Investment Bank.

In investment news, Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities said on Thursday it has introduced its bullion-backed exchange trade fund (ETF) in Belgium and the Netherlands.

---------------------

Former Shell Exec Sees Oil Hitting $150

The past chairman of a major oil producer says diminishing resources will accelerate the cost beyond reach but the industry is ignoring the problem

by David Strahan and Andrew Murray-Watson

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/sep2007/ gb20070917_292517.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_global+business

Lord Oxburgh, the former chairman of Shell, has issued a stark warning that the price of oil could hit $150 per barrel, with oil production peaking within the next 20 years.

He accused the industry of having its head "in the sand" about the depletion of supplies, and warned: "We may be sleepwalking into a problem which is actually going to be very serious and it may be too late to do anything about it by the time we are fully aware."

In an interview with The Independent on Sunday ahead of his address to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Ireland this week, Lord Oxburgh, one of the most respected names in the energy industry, said a rapid increase in the price of oil was inevitable as demand continued to outstrip supply.

He said: "We can probably go on extracting oil from the ground for a very long time, but it is going to get very expensive indeed. And once you see oil prices in excess of $100 or $150 a barrel, the alternatives simply become more attractive, on price grounds if no others."

--------------------

Battle heats up btwn U.S. Nasdaq and Dubai Borse

Vivek Ahuja

20 Sep 2007 updated at 18:07

http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2348784729
Gulf arch-rivals Dubai and Qatar today threw their weight behind competing Western factions on both sides of the Atlantic in a fresh wave of global stock exchange consolidation.

Nearly half of the outstanding shares in the London Stock Exchange, which has already agreed a European tie-up with Borsa Italiana, are now in the hands of Gulf-based shareholders, after the investment arm of Qatar's government snapped up a 20% stake this morning.

The move by the Qatar Investment Authority, which it confirmed in a statement to the stock market, followed a breakthrough in the battle between Borse Dubai and Nasdaq for control of Nordic exchange group OMX. The Dubai group is to buy 28% of the LSE from Nasdaq as part of a complex deal that will give control of OMX to the US exchange.

Larry Tabb, founder and chief executive of consultancy TABB Group, said: "My personal thought is that agreement is not the endgame. The endgame is that eventually either Dubai buys both Nasdaq and LSE or one of these exchanges winds up the parent and creates an effective competitor to the New York Stock Exchange."

President Bush said a national security review will be conducted on Borse Dubai's planned investment in Nasdaq. He said in a press conference cited by Reuters: "We are going to take a good look at it as to whether it has any national security implications involved in the transaction."

The LSE, whose chairman Chris Gibson-Smith was among the original board members of the Qatar Financial Centre Authority in April last year, welcomed the Qatari investment.

The UK exchange said today: “The QIA and the exchange have a long- standing relationship based on plans to develop the Qatar marketplace for regional leadership in financial services.”

LSE chief executive Clara Furse said: “The QIA has an impressive track record of making substantial long-term investments in growth companies. We look forward with confidence to delivering a full agenda and our wider global strategy.”

Today’s developments leave the LSE allied with Borsa Italiana in Europe and with Qatar in the Gulf, while Nasdaq, the LSE’s former hostile suitor, is set to join forces with OMX in Europe in a move that will hand Borse Dubai a near-20% stake in the combined group.

----------------

Carlyle appoints new regulatory chief

By Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Washington

September 18 2007

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ 6f80104e-6631-11dc-9fbb-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db- b0dc-000b5df10621,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F% 2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F6f80104e-6631-11dc-9fbb-0000779fd2ac% 2Cdwp_uuid%3De8477cc4-c820-11db- b0dc-000b5df10621.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.google.com% 2Fnews%3Ftab%3Dwn

Carlyle will break new ground in the US private equity industry on Wednesday when it announces the appointment of a top Washington lawyer to manage its dealings with regulators and politicians around the world.

The appointment of David Marchick, a partner at Covington & Burling, underlines how the expansion of Carlyle, which now holds more than 50 per cent of its investments outside the US, is forcing the Washington-based firm to confront a host of regulatory and political issues in numerous jurisdictions.

...

Carlyle Group Sells Stake to Abu Dhabi

The deal comes on the same day Dubai and Qatar announce they hope to acquire controlling interest in Nasdaq and London Stock Exchange

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/washbizblog/2007/09/ carlyle_group_sells_stake_to_a.html

The Carlyle Group, the District's private-equity giant, announced that it is selling a 7.5 percent share of its general partnership to an investment group owned by the government of Abu Dhabi -- one of a flurry of deals today involving Arab governments and U.S. and British financial assets. See story.

The $1.35 billion sale to the Mubadala Development Company marks the second time Carlyle has brought an outside owner into its highly profitable fold. The purchase price values Carlyle, a high profile equity player with longstanding ties to the Middle East, at roughly $20 billion, less a 10 percent discount for the new partners. That is more than six times what Carlyle was valued when the California public pension system purchased about 5 percent of the company in 2000.

Mubadala is wholly owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. As part of the deal, Abu Dhabi will make a separate $500 million investment into Carlyle funds.

Reminiscent of the Chinese government's recent $3 billion investment into Blackstone Group, a New York-based private equity firm, the money from Abu Dhabi "will add to Carlyle's capital base, strategically expand our business and be used for additional investments," Carlyle executives said in a statement.

The company, which has $76 billion under management, has had some bumps this summer. It pulled one of its properties, Insight Communications, off the market after bidders that included Time Warner Cable had difficulty getting enough bank financing. And in another recent blow, Carlyle made available $200 million in loans to shore up Carlyle Capital, a European affiliate that has been squeezed by the credit-market turmoil.

The Carlyle deal comes on the same day that the governments of two other Arab nations, Dubai and Qatar, announced they were buying large shares of the Nasdaq and London Stock Exchanges -- recycling the cash from recent high oil prices into strategic global investments.

-- Thomas Heath and Howard Schneider




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