-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: June 25, 2007 11:30:19 AM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Fun with Numbers to Justify the "Surge"
'al Qaeda in Mesopotamia':
The Numbers Just Don't Add Up
A. Alexander, June 24th, 2007
http://www.progressivedailybeacon.com/more.php?page=opinion&id=1585
When Mister Bush started his war, Iraq was a nation of some 28
million people. According to the best scientific estimates, the
President's war has reduced the population by nearly a million
(600,000) souls. Obviously in a country where every hospital is
spinning on a wheel of endless violence and where triage is about
all health care professionals have time to accomplish, keeping
babies alive long enough to replace those lost to bombs and chaos
just wouldn't seem possible. Then, too, there are the two million
Iraqis who've fled their country because the violence made living
impossible. So, for the sake of argument, let's assume there to be
25 million people currently living in Iraq.
Of that 25 million people, the best intelligence estimates -- both
U.S. and international agencies -- place the number of Iraq's
insurgent forces at approximately 20,000 combatants. Every -- not
some, not a few, not most -- EVERY domestic and international
intelligence analysis has determined that approxiomately 2-5% of
the 20,000-strong Iraq insurgency is comprised of foreign fighters.
Understand, these are numbers that have NEVER been disputed -- not
even by Dick Cheney. Remember, Cheney was the guy who had
completely deluded himself into believing everything was going so
well in Iraq that he claimed, two years ago, that the insurgency
was in its last throes. Not even a person suffering from self-
delusion of Cheney's magnitude, has questioned the statistics cited
above.
The point is this: Two-to-five percent of 20,000 means that at any
onetime, there have only ever been between 400 and 1,000 foreign
fighters in Iraq. Realistically speaking, most of the foreigners
fighting in Iraq probably migrated there on their own. That is to
say, they're just a bunch of guys with hopes of finally getting
their chance to take some shots at Americans. But, giving Bush and
Petraeus the benefit of the doubt, let's consider all 400 to 1,000
foreigners in Iraq to be part of al Qaeda. Let's be very generous,
eh? Let's give our "26% President" every advantage.
Mister Bush's latest 'surge' plan is into its fifth month. Again,
giving the benefit of the doubt to the Republican President, let's
only count four-months-worth of days. That'd be about 120 days.
Every day for those 120 days, the U.S. military command has claimed
to have killed or captured between 10 and 30 members of so-called
"al Qaeda in Mesopotamia" (it's okay, who wouldn't smile when
saying that: 'al Qaeda in Mesopotamia' -- think the Bush boys
didn't pay a Madison Avenue firm a lot of cash to conjure up that
rubbish?). Again, giving the Loyal Bushies every possible
advantage, let's say on average the US killed or captured only 10
"al Qaeda" people per-day. That means in the 120 days since the
latest 'surge' started, they've captured or killed 1,200 members of
"al Qaeda in Mesopotamia."
We won't get into the "new math," which so upsets the average
Republican politician that it leads them to call for ending public
education. Sticking with good old fashioned 'rithmetic, let's
crunch the numbers:
The low end of all estimates of the number of foreign fighters in
Iraq was 400. So, 400 less 1,200 captured or killed to date,
equals...umm...well, it equals minus 800 (400 - 1,200 = -800).
Hmmm...doesn't seem logical, but let's withhold judgment.
Okay, the high end of all estimates of the number of foreign
fighters in Iraq was 1,000. So, 1,000 less 1,200 captured or killed
to date, equals...huh...sigh...well, that equals minus 200 (1,000 -
1,200 = -200).
Something isn't quite right, is it?
Having given Mister Bush and the Generals in Iraq the benefit of
every doubt, let's just say that they appear to be grossly
overstating the presence of "al Qaeda in Mesopotamia," but they
know that. They know that all these people they've suddenly decided
to label as being members of "al Qaeda," aren't. Nearly every last
person they reported as having been members of al Qaeda, have been
Iraqi Sunni and Shiite insurgents in the midst of a civil war. But,
Mister Bush and his Generals want the American people to believe
that Iraq is being overrun by "al Qaeda terrorists," so that they
can justify the never-ending continuation of their never-ending war
in Iraq.
Think that assessment is too harsh? This is how Marine Corps
Officer First Lt. Adam P. Mathes explains, in a memo regarding a
reporters inquiry, the importance of labeling Iraq's insurgents as
members of al Qaeda:
Reporter's question regarding the Haditha massacre: "Are the
marines in this unit still serving in Haditha?"
Mathes' written memo explaining how he believes the question should
be addressed: "Yes, we are still fighting terrorists of Al Qaida in
Iraq in Haditha. ('Fighting terrorists associated with Al Qaida' is
stronger language than 'serving'. The American people will side
more with someone actively fighting a terrorist organization that
is tied to 9/11 than with someone who is idly 'serving', like in a
way one 'serves' a casserole. It's semantics, but in reporting and
journalism, words spin the story.)"
They know their numbers don't add up. And, that is giving them the
benefit of every doubt.
Note: It is not the intent of this piece to assume the numbers
cited above to be exact. Insurgent numbers and percent foreign
fighters were taken from actual intelligence estimates. Still, the
exact number of foreign fighters, 'al Qaeda' according to Bush et
al, killed and present in Iraq are only intended to provide context
to the administration and corporate-owned media latest attempt at
distorting the facts. There is no question, but that the numbers
just don't add up.
See what's free at AOL.com.
www.ctrl.org
DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
==========
CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic
screeds are unwelcomed. Substanceânot soap-boxingâplease! These are
sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'âwith its many half-truths, mis-
directions and outright fraudsâis used politically by different groups with
major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought.
That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and
always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no
credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply.
Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
========================================================================
Archives Available at:
http://www.mail-archive.com/ctrl@listserv.aol.com/
<A HREF="http://www.mail-archive.com/ctrl@listserv.aol.com/">ctrl</A>
========================================================================
To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Om