In a message dated 10/13/99 12:07:31 PM Central Daylight Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: << "NATURAL PROCESSES" ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANTARCTIC MELTING Global warming is not -- that's NOT -- responsible for melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, say scientists. In a study published in the prestigious journal Science, a team of scientists led by Howard Conway of the University of Washington say the Ice Sheet may be headed for a complete meltdown in a process that started thousands of years, and there is no evidence the rate is accelerating. o The process "may have been predetermined when the grounding line retreat was triggered in early Holocene time," says the report -- about 10,000 years ago. o The grounding line -- the boundary between floating ice and ice thick enough to reach the sea floor -- has retreated about 800 miles since the last ice age, withdrawing an average of about 400 feet per year for the last 7,600 years. o "It seems like the rate [of melting] that has been going on since the early Holocene is similar to the rate right now," says Conway. "Collapse appears to be part of an ongoing natural cycle, probably caused by [a] rising sea level initiated by the melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets at the end of the last ice age." o Continued shrinking, perhaps even complete disintegration, "could well be inevitable," the report concludes. According to estimates, the ice sheet's complete melting could raise the global sea level by 15 feet to 20 feet. But at the current rate of melting, which is raising sea levels about 0.04 inches annually, that would take about 7,000 years. Source: Associated Press, "Melting of Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Linked to Ancient History," New York Times, October 12, 1999. For NCPA's Global Warming Hotline go to http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/gwhot.html SUPPLY-SIDE REFORMS BOLSTER JAPAN The Japanese economy, recently in the doldrums, has rebounded remarkably. The reason for this, observers believe, is a set of reforms similar to those the world has seen work at least twice before: Ronald Reagan's in the U.S., and Margaret Thatcher's in Britain. o In April, the Japanese government cut the highest marginal personal tax income rate (federal and local) from 63 percent to 47 percent. o The highest corporate tax rate was cut by 10 percent to just over 40 percent. o Small business tax rates were cut from about 34 percent to 27 percent. o There were no phase-outs, no exceptions, no ties to deficit reductions; in other words, pure supply-side economics. That wasn't all. Japan also cut the capital gains tax rate and the death tax rate, abolished the tax on stock trades, and suspended for two years the special one percent tax on corporate pensions. As a result, the yen has strengthened on the foreign exchange markets, the stock market shows dollar gains of 36 percent (and is now the best performer in the world) and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's popularity is soaring. The changes are just in time. During the 1990s, government spending led to huge deficits and a national debt in dollar terms larger than that of the United States. In response, Japan leveled the highest tax rate of any Group of Seven country, which slowed the economy further without raising extra revenue. Even now, after reforms are underway, Japan still has an all-time high in unemployment and output growth has been non-existent. Prime Minister Obuchi's reforms, which now could include social security reform, couldn't have been more timely, observers say. Source: Arthur B. Laffer, "Japan Rises Again," Wall Street Journal, October 11, 1999. For more on Japan http://www.ncpa.org/pi/internat/intdex9.html >>
National Center For Policy Analysis DAILY POLICY DIGEST Wednesday, October 13, 1999 PointCast can automatically load NCPA's Policy Digest summaries on your desktop for easy reading. For information go to http://www.ncpa.org/pointcast.html IN TODAY'S DIGEST o PRODUCTIVITY COULD GROW 2.9 PERCENT WITHOUT INFLATION, says a new study, indicating economic growth of 4 percent would be noninflationary....NCPA o TRIAL LAWYERS WANT TO SUE PAINT COMPANIES for the health costs of lead paint poisoning....WALL STREET JOURNAL o ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF WORKERS OFFERED HEALTH INSURANCE REFUSE IT, according to a new survey....CENTER FOR STUDYING HEALTH SYSTEM CHANGE/USA TODAY o SOME 14 PERCENT OF TEXAS TEACHERS ARE ALTERNATIVELY CERTIFIED, and nationwide the ranks of such teachers are growing....USA TODAY o PLAINTIFFS SUE TO BE MONITORED for illnesses they may not have....INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY o GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT CAUSING THE ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET TO MELT, according to scientists who found it has been going on since the last Ice Age....SCIENCE/NEW YORK TIMES o TAX CUTS, OTHER FREE MARKET REFORMS, REVIVE JAPAN, bringing it back from the economic depths....WALL STREET JOURNAL o CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM JUST MAKES POLITICS TRICKIER as politicians find new ways around the rules....DALLAS MORNING NEWS IN TODAY'S NEWS NEW ECONOMY? OR INFLATIONARY BUBBLE? Do the economy and the stock market reflect a new era or a bubble that likely will burst? New era advocates believe computers and the internet have changed the economy and stock market valuations permanently. Those who support the bubble view think psychology has far outstripped fundamentals. Bubbles are built on easy money. Thus Federal Reserve policy is critical. The Fed has been tightening monetary policy to prevent a bubble, and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has repeatedly warned that the stock market may be overvalued. Fed Governor Laurence H. Meyer has warned that the economy was on the brink of an inflationary explosion. He has been especially worried about the steady decline in unemployment, which in the past has preceded rising inflation. But in a September 8 speech in Philadelphia, Meyer finally conceded that the trend rate of productivity growth may have risen enough to negate the old relationship between inflation and unemployment. o In fact, according to a new study by Meyer's old firm, Macroeconomic Advisers, potential productivity growth has risen from 0.3 percent in 1994 to a current level of 2.9 percent -- almost 10 times higher. o In the past, this company's forecasts have mirrored Meyer's generally pessimistic view that the economy can't grow more than 2 to 2.5 percent without triggering inflation. o However, if productivity can rise at 2.9 percent per year, then potential economic growth may reach 4 percent without creating inflationary pressures. Source: Bruce Bartlett, senior fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, October 13, 1999. For text http://www.ncpa.org/oped/bartlett/bartlett99.html For more on Current and Future Growth http://www.ncpa.org/pd/economy/econ4.html ...AND NOW LEAD PAINT SUITS Goaded by a law firm that reaped hundreds of millions of dollars from state lawsuits against tobacco companies, Rhode Island is suing eight paint manufacturers who years ago used lead in their products. The South Carolina-based law firm of Ness, Motley, Loadholt, Richardson & Poole has also approached four states and three major cities to explore filing similar suits on their behalf. This suggests the start of a new wave of actions against paint companies. o The Rhode Island suit seeks to recover public costs of providing health care and special education to children supposedly harmed by lead poisoning -- as well as requiring the industry to strip all lead paint from public and private buildings accessible to children in the state. o The law firm is financing Rhode Island's suit in return for a 17 percent share of any recovery it wins for the state. o The suit alleges that eight companies that either made lead paint, or acquired companies that did, conspired to promote their products while failing to disclose the danger it posed to children. o Yet paint makers stopped using lead in interior paints in the 1950s -- while the federal government banned lead in paint in 1978. Lead Industries Association Inc., the industry's trade association which was also named in the suit, claims that similar conspiracy charges have been rejected by courts in the past -- most notably in a 1997 decision in Maryland that found the hazards of lead paint had been widely publicized with warning labels and industry campaigns to discourage its use inside homes. Similar suits against paint makers are in the works in Baltimore, Cleveland, New York and Buffalo, N.Y. Source: Milo Geyelin, "Former Makers of Lead Paint Are Sued by Rhode Island for Child Health Costs," Wall Street Journal," October 13, 1999. For text (requires WSJ Interactive subscription) http://interactive.wsj.com/articles/SB939770266795100483.htm For more on Product Liability http://www.ncpa.org/pd/law/tcr/index5g.html GOING WITHOUT HEALTH INSURANCE VOLUNTARILY Substantial numbers of Americans are going without health insurance even though they have been offered coverage by their employers. A survey of 33,000 households by the Center for Studying Health System Change has revealed that about one in five people who were offered health insurance have turned it down. o Two-thirds of those who refused coverage blamed the high cost of policies -- with the remainder saying they didn't want it or need it. o Of the estimated 35.4 million uninsured Americans, 7.3 million turned down an offer of coverage. o At firms which pay an average of less than $7 an hour, workers pay out nearly 11 percent of pretax income for coverage. o But at firms which pay an average of more than $15 an hour, workers pay an average of about 3.2 percent of pretax income for coverage. The survey established that Hispanics and blacks were more likely to forgo insurance than whites. Some 19 percent of workers earning below the poverty line refused insurance when it was offered. Source: Julie Appleby, "One in Five Uninsured Turned Down Coverage," USA Today, October 13, 1999. For more on the Uninsured http://www.ncpa.org/pi/health/hedex11.html SMALL BUT GROWING CADRE OF TEACHERS WITH ALTERNATIVE CERTIFICATION The overwhelming majority of teachers in America's classrooms arrived there having been certified by some traditional means -- often having graduated from a teaching school. But school districts are increasingly introducing teachers who have switched from another career and been licensed through a non-traditional route. In fact, nearly every state has some type of alternative certification, reports the National Center for Education Information. And just about every state requires teachers to have a bachelor's degree and pass state teacher exams. o Although the U.S. Department of Education estimated that only 1 percent of the nation's teaching force had received certification through alternative routes as of 1994, educators say that figure has grown considerably in recent years. o The National Association for Alternative Certification estimates that as many as 80,000 teachers have been licensed through non-traditional means. o One of the larger alternative programs is Troops to Teachers, which was created in 1993 to train ex-military personnel in the teaching profession -- and which has helped more than 3,000 participants get certified. Two states have pioneered alternative teacher-training programs. Texas has 27 alternative programs which have supplied the state with 14 percent of its teachers. California has 65 such programs, involving 430 of its 1,000 school districts and 7,923 teachers. Yet despite its alternative program, 11 percent of California's teachers have an emergency permit or a waiver to teach. Source: Stephaan Harris, "Leading Classrooms After Leading Troops," USA Today, October 13, 1999. For related USA Today story http://www.usatoday.com/life/dcovwed.htm For more on Teacher Performance http://www.ncpa.org/pi/edu/edu7.html#d SUE NOW TO MONITOR FOR INJURIES LATER Legal scholars point out that for 200 years tort law has required that a plaintiff in a personal injury suit establish that he has, indeed, been injured by some action of the defendant. But recently lawyers have begun filing so-called "medical monitoring suits," which experts say represent a disturbing legal trend. o Typically, plaintiffs who have been exposed to a toxic substance sue to obtain periodic medical tests to detect the possible onset of disease -- even if no symptoms are present currently. o Five states -- California, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Utah and West Virginia -- allow such suits, and Nevada may soon join the list. o Legal observers warn that if uninjured people are allowed to sue, a tidal wave of abusive claims may result -- with such industries as asbestos, chemical and pharmaceutical firms being particularly vulnerable. o If lawyers can refocus the suit away from actual harm toward risk of harm, they can avoid having to prove causation on an individual basis -- opening the way for massive class-action suits. "Medical-monitoring class actions represent an attractive way for plaintiffs' lawyers to get all the benefits of a class action without having to meet the procedural requirements," warns California defense attorney Brian Anderson. Source: Kevin Butler, "Suing Just in Case You Get Ill," Investor's Business Daily, October 13, 1999. For more on Class Action Suits http://www.ncpa.org/pd/law/tcr/index5d.html IN OTHER NEWS "NATURAL PROCESSES" ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANTARCTIC MELTING Global warming is not -- that's NOT -- responsible for melting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, say scientists. In a study published in the prestigious journal Science, a team of scientists led by Howard Conway of the University of Washington say the Ice Sheet may be headed for a complete meltdown in a process that started thousands of years, and there is no evidence the rate is accelerating. o The process "may have been predetermined when the grounding line retreat was triggered in early Holocene time," says the report -- about 10,000 years ago. o The grounding line -- the boundary between floating ice and ice thick enough to reach the sea floor -- has retreated about 800 miles since the last ice age, withdrawing an average of about 400 feet per year for the last 7,600 years. o "It seems like the rate [of melting] that has been going on since the early Holocene is similar to the rate right now," says Conway. "Collapse appears to be part of an ongoing natural cycle, probably caused by [a] rising sea level initiated by the melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets at the end of the last ice age." o Continued shrinking, perhaps even complete disintegration, "could well be inevitable," the report concludes. According to estimates, the ice sheet's complete melting could raise the global sea level by 15 feet to 20 feet. But at the current rate of melting, which is raising sea levels about 0.04 inches annually, that would take about 7,000 years. Source: Associated Press, "Melting of Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Linked to Ancient History," New York Times, October 12, 1999. For NCPA's Global Warming Hotline go to http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/gwhot.html SUPPLY-SIDE REFORMS BOLSTER JAPAN The Japanese economy, recently in the doldrums, has rebounded remarkably. The reason for this, observers believe, is a set of reforms similar to those the world has seen work at least twice before: Ronald Reagan's in the U.S., and Margaret Thatcher's in Britain. o In April, the Japanese government cut the highest marginal personal tax income rate (federal and local) from 63 percent to 47 percent. o The highest corporate tax rate was cut by 10 percent to just over 40 percent. o Small business tax rates were cut from about 34 percent to 27 percent. o There were no phase-outs, no exceptions, no ties to deficit reductions; in other words, pure supply-side economics. That wasn't all. Japan also cut the capital gains tax rate and the death tax rate, abolished the tax on stock trades, and suspended for two years the special one percent tax on corporate pensions. As a result, the yen has strengthened on the foreign exchange markets, the stock market shows dollar gains of 36 percent (and is now the best performer in the world) and Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's popularity is soaring. The changes are just in time. During the 1990s, government spending led to huge deficits and a national debt in dollar terms larger than that of the United States. In response, Japan leveled the highest tax rate of any Group of Seven country, which slowed the economy further without raising extra revenue. Even now, after reforms are underway, Japan still has an all-time high in unemployment and output growth has been non-existent. Prime Minister Obuchi's reforms, which now could include social security reform, couldn't have been more timely, observers say. Source: Arthur B. Laffer, "Japan Rises Again," Wall Street Journal, October 11, 1999. For more on Japan http://www.ncpa.org/pi/internat/intdex9.html MYTHS ABOUT CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM Is campaign spending really excessive and exploding? Critics point to several statistics. o In 1998, winning House candidates spend an average of $675,478, 28 percent higher (inflation adjusted) than 1986, and hardly an explosion. o For Senate, winning candidates spent $4,660,847, only 3.9 percent higher than 1986 after adjusting for inflation. While it's true that politicians devote enormous amount of time to fundraising, most of the money problems result from the 1974 campaign finance reform laws which hamper fundraising by imposing tight limits on contributions, analysts believe. In a federal election, an individual can give $1,000 to any candidate per election, or $20,000 to any national parties or committees per year. The problem is that 25 years of inflation have reduced the buying power of that money by two-thirds, leading politicians to look for other ways raising it -- such as "soft money," donations of any size to a party or committee that aren't technically federal election activities. Critics note that every "reform" inspires new evasions. Source: Robert Samuelson (Newsweek), "Is Campaign Finance 'Reform' Needed?," Dallas Morning News, October 8, 1999. For more on Spending Limits http://www.ncpa.org/pd/govern/govern2.html * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * NATIONAL CENTER FOR POLICY ANALYSIS DALLAS, TEXAS "Making Ideas Change the World" Internet Address: http://www.ncpa.org * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *