-Caveat Lector-
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From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: September 12, 2007 11:55:54 AM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED],
[EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: U.S. Officials Fast-Tracking Plan for War with Iran
U.S. Officials Begin Crafting
Iran Bombing Plan
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,296450,00.html
WASHINGTON — A decision by German officials to withhold support for
sanctions against Iran has pushed a broad spectrum of officials in
Washington to [fast-track] scenarios for a military attack on the
Islamic regime, FOX News confirmed Tuesday.
Political and military officers, as well as weapons of mass
destruction specialists at the State Department, are now advising
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the diplomatic approach
favored by Burns has failed and the administration must actively
prepare for military intervention of some kind.
Among those advising Rice along these lines are John Rood, the
assistant secretary for the Bureau of International Security and
Nonproliferation; and a number of Mideast experts, including Amb.
James Jeffrey, deputy White House national security adviser under
[Dick Cheney's #2] Stephen Hadley and ex-deputy assistant secretary
for Near Eastern affairs.
Consequently, according to a well-placed Bush administration
source, "everyone in town" is now participating in a broad
discussion about the costs and benefits of military action against
Iran, with the likely timeframe for such action being in the next 8
to 10 months -- after the results of the presidential primaries are
in but before the November 2008 elections.
Germany — a pivotal player among three European nations to rein in
Iran's nuclear program over the last two-and-a-half years through a
mixture of diplomacy and sanctions supported by the United States —
notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor
Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further
sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security
Council.
The announcement was made at a meeting in Berlin that brought
German officials together with Iran desk officers from the five
member states of the Security Council. It stunned the room,
according to one of several Bush administration and foreign
government sources who spoke to FOX News, and left most Bush
administration principals concluding that sanctions are dead.
The Germans voiced concern about the damaging effects any further
sanctions on Iran would have on the German economy — but also,
according to diplomats from other countries, gave the distinct
impression that they would privately welcome, while publicly
protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran's nuclear
facilities.
Germany's withdrawal from the allied diplomatic offensive is the
latest consensus across relevant U.S. agencies and offices,
including the State Department, the National Security Council and
the offices of the president and vice president. Under Secretary of
State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the most ardent
proponent of a diplomatic resolution to the problem of Iran's
nuclear ambitions, has had his chance and come up empty.
The discussions are now focused on two basic options: less invasive
scenarios under which the U.S. might blockade Iranian imports of
gasoline or exports of oil, actions generally thought to exact too
high a cost on the Iranian people but not enough on the regime in
Tehran; and full-scale aerial bombardment.
On the latter course, active consideration is being given as to how
long it would take to degrade Iranian air defenses before American
air superiority could be established and U.S. fighter jets could
then begin a systematic attack on Iran's known nuclear targets.
Most relevant parties have concluded such a comprehensive attack
plan would require at least a week of sustained bombing runs, and
would at best set the Iranian nuclear program back a number of
years — but not destroy it forever. Other considerations include
the likelihood of Iranian reprisals against Tel Aviv and other
Israeli population centers; and the effects on American troops in
Iraq. There, officials have concluded that the Iranians are
unlikely to do much more damage than they already have been able to
inflict through their supply of explosives and training of
insurgents in Iraq.
The Bush administration "has just about had it with Iran," said one
foreign diplomat. "They tried the diplomatic process. China is now
obstructing them at the U.N. Security Council and the Russians are
tucking themselves behind them.
"The Germans are wobbling …There are a number of people in the
administration who do not want their legacy to be leaving behind an
Iran that is nuclear armed, so they are looking at what are the
alternatives? They are looking at other options," the diplomat said.
Vice President Cheney and his aides are said to be enjoying a bit
of "schadenfreude" at the expense of Burns. A source described
Cheney's office as effectively gloating to Burns and Rice, "We told
you so. (The Iranians) are not containable diplomatically."
The next shoe to drop will be when Rice and President Bush make a
final decision about whether to designate the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) and/or its lethal subset, the Quds Force, as a
terrorist entity or entities. FOX News reported in June that such a
move is under consideration.
Sources say news leaks about the prospective designation greatly
worried European governments and private sector firms, which could
theoretically face prosecution in American courts if such measures
became law and these entities continued to do business with IRGC
and its multiple financial subsidiaries.
If the Bush administration moves forward with such a designation,
sources said, it would be an indication that Rice agrees that
Burns' approach has failed. Designation of such a large Iranian
military institution as a terrorist entity would also be seen,
sources said, as laying the groundwork for a public justification
of American military action.
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