-Caveat Lector-
Begin forwarded message:
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: April 6, 2007 11:38:27 AM PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Water Wars Predicted -- West/Southwest US vs Mexico
"More than 100 nations in the U.N. climate panel agreed a final
text after all-night disputes with some scientists accusing
government delegates of watering down their findings in a draft 21-
page summary for policymakers. U.S. delegates rejected wording
that parts of North America may suffer "severe economic damage"
from warming."
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?
id=fe7c2421-97c9-4cef-b1e8-041398aafb42&k=33144
"Human-induced change in Earth's atmosphere will leave the American
Southwest in perpetual drought for the next 90 years, a new study
finds."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,264362,00.html
PERMANENT DROUGHT PREDICTED FOR SOUTHWEST
STUDY SAYS GLOBAL WARMING THREATENS TO CREATE A DUST BOWL-LIKE
PERIOD. WATER POLITICS COULD ALSO GET HEATED
By Alan Zarembo and Bettina Boxall
LA Times, April 6, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-
swdrought6apr06,1,1875684.story?page=2&track=crosspromo&coll=la-
headlines-nation
The driest periods of the last century — the Dust Bowl of the 1930s
and the droughts of the 1950s — may become the norm in the
Southwest United States within decades because of global warming,
according to a study released Thursday.
The research suggests that the transformation may already be
underway. Much of the region has been in a severe drought since
2000, which the study's analysis of computer climate models shows
as the beginning of a long dry period.
The study, published online in the journal Science, predicted a
permanent drought by 2050 throughout the Southwest — one of the
fastest-growing regions in the nation.
The data tell "a story which is pretty darn scary and very strong,"
said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate researcher at the University of
Arizona who was not involved in the study.
Richard Seager, a research scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observatory at Columbia University and the lead author of the
study, said the changes would force an adjustment to the social and
economic order from Colorado to California.
"There are going to be some tough decisions on how to allocate
water," he said. "Is it going to be the cities, or is it going to
be agriculture?"
Seager said the projections, based on 19 computer models, showed a
surprising level of agreement. "There is only one model that does
not have a drying trend," he said.
Philip Mote, an atmospheric scientist at the University of
Washington who was not involved in the study, added, "There is a
convergence of the models that is very strong and very worrisome."
The future effect of global warming is the subject of a United
Nations report to be released today in Brussels, the second of four
installments being unveiled this year.
The first report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
was released in February. It declared that global warming had
become a "runaway train" and that human activities were "very
likely" to blame.
The landmark report helped shift the long and rancorous political
debate over climate change from whether man-made warming was real
to what could be done about it.
The mechanics and patterns of drought in the Southwest have been
the focus of increased scrutiny in recent years.
During the last period of significant, prolonged drought — the
Medieval Climate Optimum from about the years 900 to 1300 — the
region experienced dry periods that lasted as long as 20 years,
scientists say.
Drought research has largely focused on the workings of air
currents that arise from variations in sea-surface temperature in
the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño and La Niña.
The most significant in terms of drought is La Niña. During La Niña
years, precipitation belts shift north, parching the Southwest.
The latest study investigated the possibility of a broader, global
climatic mechanism that could cause drought. Specifically, they
looked at the Hadley cell, one of the planet's most powerful
atmospheric circulation patterns, driving weather in the tropics
and subtropics.
Within the cell, air rises at the equator, moves toward the poles
and descends over the subtropics.
Increasing levels of greenhouse gases, the researchers said, warms
the atmosphere, which expands the poleward reach of the Hadley
cell. Dry air, which suppresses precipitation, then descends over a
wider expanse of the Mediterranean region, the Middle East and
North America.
All of those areas would be similarly affected, though the study
examined only the effect on North America in a swath reaching from
Kansas to California and south into Mexico.
The researchers tested a "middle of the road" scenario of future
carbon dioxide emissions to predict rainfall and evaporation. They
assumed that emissions would rise until 2050 and then decline. The
carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere would be 720 parts
per million in 2100, compared with about 380 parts per million today.
The computer models, on average, found about a 15% decline in
surface moisture — which is calculated by subtracting evaporation
from precipitation — from 2021 to 2040, as compared with the
average from 1950 to 2000.
A 15% drop led to the conditions that caused the Dust Bowl in the
Great Plains and the northern Rockies during the 1930s.
Even without the circulation changes, global warming intensifies
existing patterns of vapor transport, causing dry areas to get
drier and wet areas to get wetter. When it rains, it is likely to
rain harder, but scientists said that was unlikely to make up for
losses from a shifting climate.
Kelly Redmond, deputy director of the Western Regional Climate
Center in Reno, who was not involved in the study, said he thought
the region would still have periodic wet years that were part of
the natural climate variation.
But, he added, "In the future we may see fewer such very wet years."
Although the computer models show the drying has already started,
they are not accurate enough to know whether the drought is the
result of global warming or a natural variation.
"It's really hard to tell," said Connie Woodhouse, a
paleoclimatologist at the University of Arizona. "It may well be
one of the first events we can attribute to global warming."
The U.S. and southern Europe will be better prepared to deal with
frequent drought than most African nations.
For the U.S., the biggest problem would be water shortages. The
seven Colorado River Basin states — Colorado, Wyoming, Utah,
Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and California — would battle each
other for diminished river flows.
Mexico, which has a share of the Colorado River under a 1944 treaty
and has complained of U.S. diversions in the past, would join the
struggle.
Inevitably, water would be reallocated from agriculture, which uses
most of the West's supply, to urban users, drying up farms.
California would come under pressure to build desalination plants
on the coast, despite environmental concerns.
"This is a situation that is going to cause water wars," said Kevin
Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research in Boulder, Colo.
"If there's not enough water to meet everybody's allocation, how do
you divide it up?"
Officials from seven states recently forged an agreement on the
current drought, which has left the Colorado River's big reservoirs
— Lake Powell and Lake Mead — about half-empty. Without some very
wet years, federal water managers say, Lake Mead may never refill.
In the next couple of years, water deliveries may have to be
reduced to Arizona and Nevada, whose water rights are second to
California.
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