-Caveat Lector-
----- Forwarded message from [EMAIL PROTECTED] -----
Date: Sat, 15 Nov 2003 16:28:58 -0600 (CST)
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: ! GLOBAL WARMING "DETECTED" IN THE U.S.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3267775.stm
Global warming 'detected' in the US
Climate change caused by human activity has been detected on a local
level, an international group of scientists says.
The researchers compared temperatures in North America between 1900
and 1999 with what one might expect if man had - and had not - had an
influence.
And In the last 50 years, the rise in temperature is just what one
would predict if man-made greenhouse gases were having an impact, they
claim.
The research is published in this week's edition of the journal
Science.
Computer models
It is getting warmer in North America. Since 1900, the average
temperature has risen by one degree Celsius, and 80% of that increase
has happened since 1970.
What is not certain, is why this has happened. Some blame the
greenhouse gases produced by humans ["some" meaning the overwhelming
majority of sciencitsts, as you well know BBC, shame on you -ED] ;
others [almost all of whom are either non-scientists or scientists who
are receiving paychecks from industry -ED] say it is all part of a
natural fluctuation. [In fact the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change was set up by the UN at the request of none other
than the National Academy of Science, no less, and is one of the
largest, perhaps the largest and most transparent peer review and
collaboration in the history of science -ED]
Peter Stott from the Met Office in the UK, and his colleagues, used
sophisticated computer models to address the question.
They created several virtual 20th Century North Americas, complete
with sea, trees, mountains, volcanoes, clouds and weather systems. The
model North Americas were capable of accurately mimicking the climate
of the real-life version.
Then the researchers introduced different influences to each model, to
see how they affected the climate.
To some, they introduced lots of volcanic action and solar activity,
which can cause natural climate change. And to others, they introduced
greenhouse gases, ozone and sulphate aerosols - all of which
contribute to man-made climate change.
Close match
Each of the models predicted what the climate of North America should
have looked like, under a particular set of influences.
Then they looked at what really happened to the climate of North
America over the past century, and measured how well the models
matched up.
The idea was that if a particular model of North America closely
matched the real thing, one could assume it did so because the
influences at play in the real and virtual world were the same.
In the second half of the century - 1950-1999 - the climate change of
North America closely matched the "human influence" model. But in the
first half of the century, the climate change matched the "natural
influence" model.
So the models were suggesting that North America warmed up for natural
reasons during the first half of the century but, in the second half,
man caused the climate change.
"The model that included greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols agreed
with what we really saw in the second half of the century," said Dr
Stott. "But when we looked at the models that didn't include these
things, they didn't fit."
Human fingerprint
The researchers also compared the air temperature above the land with
that on the surface of the ocean. They found that the air above the
land was heating up much quicker.
This is inconsistent with what we might expect if we were witnessing a
natural fluctuation, the researchers say, because they are usually
characterised by a rise in ocean temperature.
"The fact the land is warming faster on land than on the ocean surface
bares the human finger-print," Dr Stott told BBC News Online. "That is
because normal fluctuations are often caused by changes in the ocean
systems."
Previous studies on the possible causes of 20th Century warming have
generally concentrated on global-scale patterns of climate change.
"There is a whole body of evidence for global climate change," said Dr
Stott, "but now we have found it locally."
= = = =
STILL FEELING LIKE THE MAINSTREAM U.S. CORPORATE MEDIA
IS GIVING A FULL HONEST PICTURE OF WHAT'S GOING ON?
= = = =
Daily online radio show, news reporting: www.DemocracyNow.org
= = = =
Sorry we cannot read/reply to most usenet posts but welcome email
For more information: http://EconomicDemocracy.org/wtc/ (peace)
And http://EconomicDemocracy.org/ (general)
ANTI-SPAM EMAIL NOTE: For email "info" and "map" don't work. Email
instead to m-a-i-l-m-a-i-l (without the dashes) at
economicdemocracy.org
----- End forwarded message -----
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