-Caveat Lector-

Wednesday June 6 2:48 PM ET

Gasoline Panic Bubble Bursts; Pump Prices Set to Fall
By Richard Valdmanis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline pump prices are poised to head lower
following a large drop in the wholesale market, blotting out doomsday
predictions of $3 gasoline this summer, industry experts said Wednesday.

``There was a lot of fear that drove prices up to begin with, and now it's
clear that that fear was misplaced,'' said Ken Miller, analyst for Purvin
and Gertz in Houston. ``Pump prices are certainly going to come down.''

Wholesale gasoline prices in most areas of the country have fallen between
15 and 25 percent since their highs at the end of May due to steadily
growing supply. The cost of the fuel fresh from refineries in the Gulf Coast
is now as low as 73 cents a gallon, compared with 91 cents less than two
weeks ago.

The supply growth has erased a deep deficit and brought U.S. gasoline stocks
to more than six million barrels, or 3 percent, ahead of last year. This is
attributed to a brisk domestic refining pace and strong imports, according
to the American Petroleum Institute (API).

The outlook could awaken the nation's motorists from their gasoline
nightmare, caused by near-record retail prices of $1.69 a gallon, and more
than $2 a gallon in certain areas of the West Coast and Midwest, according
to the American Automobile Association's (AAA) daily survey.

The high prices were driven by fears of short supplies this summer -- a
season of traditionally high gasoline demand -- and recollections of last
year's spike in the Midwest which drove prices as high as $2.75 in some
major cities.

But this summer's relief is not likely to come immediately, analysts said,
since retailers often take two weeks or more to start reflecting their lower
costs at the pumps.

``It looks like the improved supplies will be depressing gasoline prices at
the marketplace,'' said Jerry Cheske, spokesman for the AAA. ``But,
historically speaking, retail prices are slower to follow wholesale declines
than increases.''

Cheske added that regional supply disruptions, like a refinery shutdown or a
pipeline leak, could send prices at some service stations the other way.
Also, Iraq's cutoff of most of its oil exports due to a row with the United
Nations could keep crude oil prices high and offer support for gasoline
values.

Nonetheless, the improved outlook puts the prospect of $3 gasoline farther
out of reach, even after reports of oil companies ordering large number '3's
in California this spring to hang in the dollar slot at filling stations.

``The shortage is over,'' said one Texas gasoline trader Wednesday.
``There's plenty of gasoline out there.''

---
"I understand the unicorn's song,
And my own is made of owls and flowers;
I have made my voice of night and time;
My shadow goes before me like a spear."
   -- from Taliesin and the Dark

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