-Caveat Lector-
Climate warming in progress and increasing
January 2001
by Patrick Neuman, Private Citizen Hydrologist
Chanhassen, Minnesota
In reply to the request from Ecotoday, here are three reports that give
new evidence that climate warming is in progress and is increasing.
The first and second reports are from my personal study ... which are in
no way related to my professional employment with the National Weather
Service (NWS) North Central River Forecast Center (which provides for the
official annual Upper Midwest Spring Snowmelt Flood Outlooks from the NWS
office in Chanhassen, Minnesota in February and March, annually).
1. TREND TO EARLIER SNOWMELT IN THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN
I have done personal study of the hydrology of Red River of the North
basin (North Dakota, Minnesota, and Manitoba Canada). I found that the
timing of seasonal snowmelt runoff within the Red River basin has
changed. From the 1800s to the 1960s, the normal period of seasonal
snowmelt runoff was April-May. The timing of seasonal snowmelt runoff
within the basin changed during the 1970s. During the last two decades
of the 20th century, the highest frequency of seasonal snowmelt runoff
changed to March-February, from the previously considered normal period
of April-May. In conclusion, from my personal study, the change in
the timing of snowmelt runoff within the Red River basin clearly shows
that the winter and spring climate has been warming in North Dakota,
northern South Dakota, and western Minnesota. I can provide data to
support this conclusion.
2. INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Dewpoint measurements reflect the amount of water in the air at
meteorological stations. Increasing dew points have been occurring over
southern Minnesota (Minnesota Public Radio broadcast, August, 2000). My
analysis of monthly and annual dewpoint data for Minneapolis, Minnesota,
1965-2000 shows increasing dewpoint values during the last 20 years. My
analysis shows that the last five years, 1996-2000, was 2.5 -3.8 degrees
Fahrenheit higher than the five year averages from 1965-1980. Increasing
dewpoints suggests a need for adjustment of snowmelt modeling parameters
in runoff models used for spring flood outlooks. Increased atmospheric
humidity increases melt rates for snow and ice. Timing of melt is an
important factor in determining the potential for spring snowmelt
flooding. In conclusion, from my personal study, the rising trend in
dewpoint data values at Minneapolis, Minnesota shows that the atmospheric
climate conditions at Minneapolis have become more humid. I can provide
my preliminary data to support this conclusion.
My posts in no way represent my place of employment with NWS, North
Central River Forecast Center(NCRFC).
I am representing myself as a private-citizen only, in all my reports,
conversations, and messages.
There can be no question that I am NOT representing the Department of
Commerce, NOAA, NWS, or NCRFC. My work related to climate warming
influences on the hydrology of the Upper Midwest is being done totally on
my own personal time
Mike Neuman, from Madison, Wisconsin, from his own personal study, has
been of tremendous help to me in providing background information and
motivation concerning climate change implications on hydrology and other
elements related to global warming - climate change.
3. My summary on the PBS special called Warnings from the Wild is on
the ClimateConcern Group in:
http://www.egroups.com/message/ClimateConcern/1540.
Additionally, I have been assessing the implications of climate warming
on the water levels of the Upper Great Lakes. My extended water level
outlooks for Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron, including assessment
for climate warming influences due to longer growing seasons, increased
transpiration, and increases in evaporation can also be found on the
ClimateConcern Group, with the latest one provided in:
http://www.egroups.com/message/ClimateConcern/1482
None of my efforts in relation to climate change and hydrology are
related to my professional work at the NWS NCRFC, and the NWS in no way
is responsible for any of the information that I have provided.
<SNIP>
On Sat, 13 Jan 2001 21:31:39 EST [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
> Are there any comments or retorts to this controversial report?
> ======
> LONDON TELEGRAPH Jan. 14, 2001
-------------------- >>
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