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Uri Avnery
9.2.02
The Great Game
Some weeks ago, something curious happened: Israel discovered that
Iran is the Great Satan.
It happened quite suddenly. There was no prior sensational news, no
new discovery. As if by the order of a drill-sergeant, the whole
Israeli phalanx changed direction. All the politicians, all the
generals, all the enlisted media, with the usual complement of
professors-for-hire, - all of them discovered overnight that Iran is
the immediate, real and terrible danger.
By wondrous coincidence, at exactly the same moment a ship was
captured that, allegedly, carried Iranian arms to Arafat. And in
Washington Shimon Peres, a man for all seasons and the servant of all
masters, accosted every passing diplomat and told him stories about
thousands of Iranian missiles that have been given to the Hizbullah.
Yes, yes, Hizbullah (included by President Bush in the list of
"terrorist organizations") is receiving horr
ible arms from Iran (included by President Bush in the "Axis of Evil") in order to
threaten Israel, the darling of the Congress.
Does this sound mad? Not at all. There is method in this madness.
On the face of it, the matter is easy to explain. America is still in a state of fury
after the Twin-Towers outrage. It has won a amazing victory in Afghanistan, hardly
sacrificing a single American soldier. Now it stands
, furious and drunk with victory, and does not know who to attack next. Iraq? North
Korea? Somalia? The Sudan?
President Bush cannot stop now, because such an immense concentration of might cannot
be laid off. The more so, as Bin-Laden has not been killed. The economic situation has
deteriorated, a giant scandal (Enron) is rocking
Washington. The American public should not be left to ponder on this.
So here comes the Israeli leadership and shouts from the roof-tops: Iran is the enemy!
Iran must be attacked!
Who has made that decision? When? How? And most importantly – Where? Clearly not in
Jerusalem, but in Washington DC. An important component of the US administration has
given Israel a sign: Start a massive political offen
sive in order to pressure the Congress, the media and American public opinion.
Who are these people? And what is their interest? A wider explanation is needed.
The most coveted resource on earth is the giant oil-field in the Caspian Sea region,
that competes in scale with the riches of Saudi Arabia. In 2010 it is expected to
yield 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day, in add
ition to 4850 billion cubic feet of natural gas per year.
The United States is determined (a) to take possession of it, (b) to eliminate all
potential competitors, (c) to safeguard the area politically and militarily, and (d)
to clear a way from the oil-fields to the open sea.
This campaign is being led by a group of oil people, to which the Bush family belongs.
Together with the arms industry, this group got both George Bush senior and George
Bush junior elected. The President is a simple pers
on, his mental world is shallow and his pronouncements are primitive, bordering on
caricature, like a second-rate Western. That is good for the masses. But his handlers
are very sophisticated people indeed. It's they who
guide the administration.
The Twin Towers outrage made their job much easier. Osama Bin Laden did not comprehend
that his actions serve American interests. If I were a believer in Conspiracy Theory,
I would think that Bin Laden is an American agen
t. Not being one, I can only wonder at the coincidence.
Bush's "War on Terrorism" constitutes a perfect pretext for the campaign planned by
his handlers. Under the cover of this war, America has taken total control over the
three small Muslim nations near the oil reserves: Tur
kmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The whole region is now completely under
American political-military domination. All potential competitors – including Russia
and China – have been pushed out.
For a long time, the Americans have been arguing among themselves about the best route
for piping this oil to the open sea. Routes that may be under Russian influence have
been eliminated. The 19th century, deadly British
- Russian competition, then called the "Great Game", is still going on between America
and Russia.
Until recently, the western route, leading to the Black Sea and Turkey, seemed most
feasible, but the Americans did not like it very much, to say the least. Russia is
much too near.
The best route leads south, to the Indian Ocean. Iran was not even considered, since
it is governed by Islamic fanatics. So there remained the alternative route: from the
Caspian Sea, through Afghanistan and the western p
art of Pakistan (called Beluchistan), to the Indian Ocean. To this end, the Americans
conducted, ever so quietly, negotiations with the Taliban regime. They bore no fruit.
Then the "War on Terrorism" was started, the US c
onquered all of Afghanistan and installed their agents as the new government. The
Pakistani dictator, too, was bent to the American will.
If one looks at the map of the big American bases created for the war, one is struck
by the fact that they are completely identical to the route of the projected oil
pipeline to the Indian Ocean.
That would have been the end of the story, but the appetite grows with the eating. The
Americans drew two lessons from the Afghani experience: (a) that every country can be
subdued by sophisticated bombs, without putting
any soldiers in harm's way, and (b) that by military might and money America can
install client governments anywhere.
And so a new idea came up in Washington: Why lay a long pipeline around Iran (through
Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan) if one can lay a much shorter pipeline through
Iran itself? One has only to topple the Ayatulla
h regime and install a new pro-American government. In the past, that seemed
impossible. Now, after the Afghani episode, it looks eminently practicable. One has
only to prepare American public opinion and to acquire the s
upport of the congress for an attack on Iran.
For this, Israel's good services are needed. It has an enormous influence in the
Congress and the media. It works like this: Israeli generals declare every day that
Iran is producing weapons of mass-destruction and threat
ens the Jewish State with a second Holocaust. Sharon announces that the capture of the
Iranian arms-ship proves Arafat is a part of the Iranian conspiracy. Peres tells
everybody that Iranian missiles threaten the whole wo
rld. Every day some newspaper tells its readers that Bin Laden is in Iran or with the
Hizbullah in Lebanon.
President Bush knows how to reward those who serve him well. Sharon got a free hand to
oppress the Palestinians, imprison Arafat, assassinate militants and enlarge the
settlements. It's a simple deal: You deliver the supp
ort of the Congress and the media, I deliver the Palestinians on a platter.
This could not happen if America was still in need of allies in Europe and the Arab
world. But in Afghanistan, the Americans learned that they don't need anybody anymore.
They can spit in the eyes of the pitiful Arab regi
mes, that are always begging for money, and disregard Europe altogether. Who needs the
negligible armies of Britain and Germany, when America alone is mightier then all the
armies of the world combined?
The idea of American-Israeli cooperation against Iran is not new for Sharon. On the
contrary, in 1981, when he was just appointed Minister of Defense, he offered the
Pentagon a daring plan: in the event of Khomeini's demi
se, the Israeli army would immediately occupy Iran, in order to forestall the Soviet
Union. The IDF would turn the country over to the slow-moving Americans, once they
arrived. For this purpose, the Pentagon would stockpi
le in advance the most sophisticated arms in Israel, under American control, to be
used in this operation.
The Pentagon did not accept the idea at that time. Now, the cooperation is being
established against a different background.
What conclusions should we draw from all this?
First of all, that shall be located on the frontline of this coming
war. Beyond the exchange of curses between the "two Persian Chiefs-of-
Staff" (as the joke goes in Israeli command circles, alluding to the
fact that Shaul Mofaz was born in Iran), an Iranian reaction to an
American assault may hurt us grievously. There are missiles. There
are chemical and biological weapons.
Second, that those of us who desire an Israeli-Palestinian peace
cannot rely on America. Now everything depends on us alone, the
Israelis and the Palestinians.
Our blood is more precious than Caspian Sea oil. At least to us.
End<{{{
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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